I have already locked in two NFL picks for Thursday Night Football between the Vikings and Chargers, and I'm back for more.
- For more Thursday Night Football coverage, check out our Vikings vs Chargers preview, which includes six picks for TNF.
In addition to my plays on Oronde Gadsden II and the spread, I'm targeting Josh Metellus in the prop market as I suspect the safety has a favorable matchup against the Chargers. Find my over/under prop pick for Metellus below.
NFL Prop Pick: Josh Metellus Over/Under Prediction
This is a good spot to buy low on Josh Metellus, who’s only cleared this number in two of six games entering tonight's game against the Chargers.
With Harrison Smith returning to his full-time role, we saw Metellus shift back to the usage that made him so valuable last season. He lined up in the “sweet spot” (box/slot) at a 37% higher rate than his season average and played only one snap deep after spending 40% of his season there prior.
That role change alone gives Metellus about a +1.0 expected tackle boost tonight; he’ll be more involved against the run while still staying active in coverage — he actually leads the team with 21 tackles in coverage this year.
The Vikings are expected to face about +5.5 more completions than their season average against the Chargers’ pass-heavy offense, which directly increases Metellus’ tackle opportunities even though they project to face 6.9 fewer rush attempts.
It’s also worth noting Metellus' schedule has been tough — he’d have roughly +3.5 more tackles this year if he’d faced a league-average slate for safeties.
The Chargers are the ideal matchup for him since their offense boosts tackle opportunities for LB/CB/S hybrids (like Metellus) by roughly +8%.
The one downside is that L.A.’s scorekeeper tends to be stingy with assists, consistently ranking near the bottom of the league in that category. However, Metellus doesn��t rely heavily on assists and records a high rate of solo tackles.
A sneaky angle would be taking his tackles-only prop at over 4.5 (+124), which removes the scorekeeper variable entirely.
I’m sticking with over 6.5 tackles + assists since I still project him at 7.3 even after adjusting for the scoring environment — roughly a 60% chance to clear 6.5 given the return to his usual role in the “sweet spot.”
