The Los Angeles Chargers (4-3) host the Minnesota Vikings (3-3) for Week 8 Thursday Night Football on October 23. Kickoff from SoFi Stadium in Los Angeles, Calif., is set for 8:15 p.m. ET. TNF will broadcast live on Prime Video.
The Chargers are 3.5-point spread favorites over the Vikings (Chargers -3.5); the game total is 44.5 points. The Chargers are -190 moneyline favorites and the Vikings are +155 underdogs.
Below, you can find our Vikings vs Chargers picks for Thursday Night Football, which include predictions for the spread, game total and four player props.
Vikings vs Chargers Picks & Predictions
| Game | Time (ET) | Best Bet |
|---|---|---|
  | 8:15 p.m. | |
| 8:15 p.m. | |
| 8:15 p.m. | |
| 8:15 p.m. | |
| 8:15 p.m. | |
| 8:15 p.m. | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NFL Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Thursday Night Football Odds
- Vikings vs Chargers Moneyline: Vikings +155, Chargers -190
- Vikings vs Chargers Spread: Vikings +3.5 (-115), Chargers -3.5 (-105)
- Vikings vs Chargers Total: 44.5
Vikings vs Chargers odds via bet365
Vikings vs Chargers Spread Prediction
By Billy Ward
After what feels like a lifetime of extremely good fortune, it’s interesting to see the Vikings grading out as one of our unluckiest teams in our NFL Luck Rankings. It makes sense, though, given they’re 3-3 with a +20 net scoring differential while the Chargers a 4-3 with a -12 scoring differential.
The Chargers haven’t been super lucky according to our metrics, coming in at 11th overall, but should probably be a 3-4 team instead of the 4-3 record they currently have.
Outside of a Week 1 win over the Chiefs, they’ve snuck by with close wins over the Broncos and Dolphins, plus a solid one against the Raiders.
The Chargers are also fairly beat up, with their top three offensive tackles — Joe Alt, Austin Deculus, Trey Pipkins — all questionable heading into Thursday Night Football. That’s a bad sign on a short week, as it lowers the odds of the starters playing and gives less time for backups to get up to speed.
While I’d be surprised if all three players are out, it’s still a tough spot for the Chargers against the Vikings' pass rush, which ranks No. 2 in adjusted sack rate in the NFL. For a pass-first team like the Chargers, that will make offensive production hard to come by.
With the Vikings getting 3.5 points on some books, I like them to at least keep things close enough to cover the spread — if not win outright.
Pick: Vikings +3.5 (-115)
Vikings vs Chargers Over/Under Pick
The Chargers defense opened the season with three strong performances, but they have since been one of the worst defenses in the NFL over their last four games. Since Week 4, their defensive success rate is 51%, which ranks 31st in the league.
During that four-game game span, they had the benefit of facing Jaxson Dart in his first NFL start and a struggling Tua Tagovailoa, yet the Chargers still rank as poorly as they do because Jayden Daniels torched them for 8.9 yards per attempt while Daniel Jones averaged 8.5 yards per attempt.
Carson Wentz may fall somewhere in the middle of that crop of signal-callers in terms of the matchup for this Los Angeles defense, but it’s worth noting in his four starts for Minnesota, the team has averaged 28 points per game.
Most importantly for Wentz in this spot is the assistance he will receive from his rushing attack.
Jim Harbaugh’s squad can't stop the run. Over the Chargers' last three games, more than 40% of all runs against them have resulted in a first down or touchdown, which is the highest rate in the league.
Justin Herbert and the Chargers have been inconsistent at times, but they have found a way to produce despite their inability to pass protect.
This is a Vikings secondary that was shredded by Jalen Hurts and the Eagles' passing attack just a few days ago. Los Angeles will do enough offensively to put up its share of points.
This total is simply a few points too low and should be closer to the key number of 47 — even 47.5 would have been completely reasonable given each teams’ recent form defensively.
Pick: Over 44.5 (-110); bet to Over 46.5
Vikings vs Chargers Player Props: Ladd McConkey
Over the last three games, Ladd McConkey has caught 21-of-31 targets for 206 yards and two touchdowns.
McConkey's recent uptick in usage is encouraging, as is a matchup against the Vikings. They generate as much pressure on quarterbacks as nearly any team in the league, so Justin Herbert is going to have to get the ball out of his hands quickly tonight.
Over the last three games, McConkey has run 66% of his routes from the slot with a 22% first-read rate.
I expect him to get peppered with targets underneath in this game.
Pick: Ladd McConkey Over 5.5 Receptions (+130)
Vikings vs Chargers Player Props: Justin Jefferson
Justin Jefferson hasn't scored a touchdown yet with Carson Wentz at quarterback, but positive regression in the scoring department eventually has to come Jefferson's way.
Jefferson is a top-two WR in the NFL, and he's been getting heavy volume on a weekly basis, with 10+ targets in each of the past three games.
He's been targeted heavily in the red zone this season (seven targets) and is always a threat to take one to the house anywhere on the field.
I have Jefferson's true odds to score tonight around +125.
Pick: Justin Jefferson Anytime Touchdown (+150)
Vikings vs Chargers Player Props: Justin Herbert
By Brit Devine
These odds are just too good to pass on for a QB who is running more than he ever has before.
Nothing in the box scores or matchup will have this looking like a good bet simply based on touchdowns, but if you factor in how often Justin Herbert is running this season compared to previous seasons, these odds start to look very tempting.
If Herbert had found the end zone even once this season entering tonight, we would be looking at odds of +500 or worse.
We are simply trying to get ahead of him finding the end zone on this one.
Pick: Justin Herbert Anytime Touchdown (+600)
Vikings vs Chargers Player Props: Jordan Mason
By Derek Carty
There is a value opportunity on Jordan Mason's receptions prop with Aaron Jones potentially returning to action tonight.
THE BLITZ is projecting Mason to record 1.05 receptions, while sportsbooks imply 2.11. The model believes there is a 70% chance he records fewer than 1.5 receptions, so there is some value on the under at +128. (This play is good down to at least -153.)
Note: If Jones doesn't play, this loses significant value.
Love THE BLITZ? Get all of Carty’s sports betting projections at EV Analytics!
Pick: Jordan Mason Under 1.5 Receptions (+128 to -153)
