The NFL season enters Week 14, and I have some NFL prop bets locked in for Sunday for Seahawks vs Falcons, Bears vs Packers and Broncos vs Raiders.
Let's get into my Week 14 player props.
Week 14 NFL Player Props
- AJ Barner Anytime Touchdown (+250; BetMGM); 0.2 units
- Jack Bech Over 21.5 Receiving Yards (-110; DraftKings); 0.55 units
- Luther Burden III Over 3.5 Receptions (-119; DraftKings); 0.6 units
Important disclaimer regarding my unit sizing:
The reason I use 0.5 units as a baseline has nothing to do with my confidence on a pick. It’s about expanding the threshold for what qualifies as an “official play.”
Instead of posting four full-unit plays, I can post eight half-unit plays. That gives followers more chances to get similar odds since lines often move quickly after I post.
For lower-limit markets like tackles, books also dictate my actual stake since I can’t always get full exposure. Every play I post is one I’m confident in.
The 0.5u label simply reflects a structural change, not uncertainty. My real confidence is reflected in the projected hit rate versus the implied odds, and it’s up to you to decide how much value is still there at current prices.
AJ Barner Anytime Touchdown
AJ Barner is the Seahawks' ball carrier in their version of the Tush Push and he has been incredibly effective with a 89% success rate (highest for any player with at least 5+ carries). Of course, he’s also Seattle's lead pass-catching TE.
The Seahawks let him get a rush TD at the goal-line a few weeks ago and I would expect maybe 1-2 more of those for him over the final several weeks of the season.
I think the market is a bit behind Barner's sneaky upside in this market right now. I'm projecting him closer to +180.
Jack Bech Receiving Yards
Jack Bech has had a very disappointing rookie season for the Raiders, but it’s usually not smart to completely write off a second-round WR 12 games into his career.
I wasn’t expecting Bech to do much up to this point anyway, but with Dont'e Thornton Jr. and Michael Mayer ruled out I’m expecting Bech to see a massive increase in usage.
I'm projecting Bech closer to 25.5 receiving yards with around a 58% chance to clear 21.5.
Luther Burden III Receptions
After losing on Luther Burden III's receiving yards prop in brutal fashion last week (by 0.5 yards), I’m going to stick with the market I think suits him better — receptions.
When evaluating rookie WRs, it’s important to look at both talent and landing spot. Tet McMillan and Emeka Egbuka were two of the top WRs in this year’s class and landed in ideal situations to produce immediately. Both benefited from trades or injuries that elevated their usage even more.
Burden, on the other hand, was a fringe first-round talent who landed in a very crowded room of Bears pass-catchers with limited passing yards to go around. That was always going to make him easy to overlook.
I’m not saying he’s the same talent as CeeDee Lamb or Jaxon Smith-Njigba, but I’ve pointed out he could have a similar career arc where he starts behind two (or more) established WRs, then eventually sees a production jump as injuries occur, or the team moves on from someone like DJ Moore down the line.
Burden recently passed Olamide Zaccheaus to become the the Bears' WR3, but Burden has still been topping out around a 60–65% routes-run rate.
With Rome Odunze ruled out, we could see Burden's first game in a full-time role (potentially 80%+ routes).
The matchup is brutal, but the Bears may be forced to throw at a higher rate, and they clearly want to find ways to get the ball in Burden's hands, as we saw with the pop-pass look last week.
This is the better market to invest in Burden's upside, and I’m projecting him closer to a 62% chance to clear 3.5 receptions.
