NFL Thanksgiving: Odds, Picks, Preview for Every Game, Every Team

NFL Thanksgiving: Odds, Picks, Preview for Every Game, Every Team

Week 12 NFL Thanksgiving Games Expert Picks

• Lions -7.5
• CeeDee Lamb 150+ yards (+1125)
• 49ers/Seahawks under 43.5
• Tyreek Hill escalator: over 75.5 yards | 100+ yards (+235)

Here's everything you need to know about NFL Thanksgiving odds and picks in our betting preview for every game and every team.

Well, not every game and team this time. That's because this is a special Thanksgiving holiday edition of the article! It's an early week outlook for all three games on Turkey Day, plus our first every Black Friday game.

We'll go through the latest NFL odds in Week 12, plus how to bet on every team in each game on Thanksgiving and Black Friday, with a focus on bets for fans of those teams (or those who just want to rent a rooting interest for a game).

Regardless of your level of betting experience, this is the NFL preview for you. These bets are designed to give you something to cheer for, with the updated odds for every game and every team. So let's get to the picks!

Packers vs Lions Odds, Picks

• Aaron Jones appears to have avoided major injury but will miss at least this one, leaving the Packers without their best and most important offensive player once again.
• Don't overlook how last week's results could impact this game. Thursday underdogs that just won by three or less like Green Bay are 11-20 ATS (35%), while teams playing on a short week after a division win by more than a field goal like Detroit are 77-49-2 ATS (61%) since 2010.
• Going streaking? The Lions have won four straight in the division rivalry, preceded by five straight Packers wins, then four more Lions wins. This series has been a sweep in six of the past seven seasons — and the Lions won 34-20 in Lambeau in September.
• If you like to bet by halves, the patterns are pretty clear on this one. Detroit is 7-3 ATS in the first half, while the Packers have been slow starters but gone 8-2 ATS in the second half.

The Packers have struggled to run the ball this year, especially when it's just A.J. Dillon, and the Lions are going to put up some points on this defense. If Green Bay wants to hang, it's going to be up to Jordan Love and the passing game to keep things competitive, and Love has been playing well of late.

The Lions rank in the bottom quarter of the league against opposing WR2s by DVOA. It's tough to know exactly how these Packers receivers slot at this point, but it's clear that Doubs has become the go-to guy for Love in the red zone. He's found pay dirt in four of the last five weeks and already has seven TDs on the season, tied for third most in the league.

Romeo, Romeo, wherefore art thou, Romeo? Hopefully in the end zone on Turkey Day.

The Lions are the better team, at pretty much everything. Detroit ranks top 12 both running and passing, both offense and defense. The Packers are top 12 at none of those things. The Lions are even way better at special teams. Detroit's been terrific at home, especially defensively, and Amon-Ra St. Brown should have another big game against this beatable Green Bay secondary.

Besides, what better way to celebrate Thanksgiving than by celebrating the best Lions team in decades? A flurry of Thanksgiving-specific trends tell us to trust the Lions here. Some of my favorites:

• Lions on Thanksgiving since 2012: 8-3 ATS (73%)
• Non-Dallas favorites on Thanksgiving: 29-9 ATS (76%), covering by 7.1 PPG
• Non-Dallas favorites of seven or more: 12-2 ATS (86%)
• Public Thanksgiving favorites (Detroit is getting 60% of the bets) since 2006: 26-8 ATS (76%)

I bet Lions -7.5 on The Lookahead last week. We didn't get any line movement or CLV after Detroit barely eked out a win over the Bears and the Packers beat the Chargers, but I think those results are being looked at wrong. The Lions keep winning games with toughness, grit, defense, winning mentality — all the ways this team normally loses — and Green Bay's win was more of a loss by LA.

I still like the Lions. They went into Green Bay and won by two scores under two months ago, and they're healthy and rolling offensively. I expect them to get out to a nice early lead and roll, finally ready for a dominant Thanksgiving win so many Detroit fans have waited so long for. This is also a nice spot for a Lions teaser if you're looking to get Week 12 started that way.

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Commanders vs Cowboys Odds, Picks

• Fade the Cowboys on Thanksgiving? That's been the rule since 2011, with Dallas an ugly 1-11 ATS on Turkey Day, failing to cover 92% of the games by an average of 11.8 PPG. Yikes!
• Expecting points? The total for this game has skyrocketed from 44.5 on Sunday to as high as 49 at books on Tuesday night, and climbing!
• This will the be the 11th meeting all-time between Dallas and Washington on Thanksgiving. Dallas leads the Thanksgiving series 8-2, though both those Washington wins came since 2012. The Cowboys have won 10 of the last 14 meetings overall against their division rivals.
• Washington has been around league average by DVOA in the second half but bottom five on both offense and defense in the first half. The Commanders are 4-7 ATS in the first half this season, while Dallas is 8-2 ATS in that spot. If you want to bet the Cowboys, isolating Cowboys -6.5 in the first half could be a good way to get under the key number.

Nothing in particular about this matchup says to bet the Commanders. Sam Howell eats sacks and turns it over, Dallas's defense has been a freight train at home, and Washington has been awful in the first half on both sides of the ball. This is the exact sort of formula that's led to Dallas blowing out opponents, with all but one win by at least 23 points.

But weird things seem to happen in Dallas on Thanksgiving, even to really good Cowboys teams, and Howell's big arm can hurt the Cowboys over the middle and deep and keep the back door open. Washington has only been blown out twice this season. Ron Rivera has covered 61% of the time as a division underdog, including 10-5-1 ATS (67%) as a division dog of more than seven.

Trust the rule of Thanksgiving and fade the Cowboys: 1-11 ATS the last 12 Turkey Days!

Washington's defense has been mostly horrendous. The Commanders have allowed 27.7 PPG, most in the league, and they rank 30th in Defensive DVOA and dead last against the pass — and most of that was before trading away star pass rushers Chase Young and Montez Sweat.

The Commanders have allowed more yards and TDs to opposing WRs than any team and have been especially bad against the league's best, bottom three by DVOA against WR1s. Just look at some of the lines Washington has allowed in the last two months alone: Stefon Diggs 8/111, A.J. Brown 9/115/2, D.J. Moore 8/230/3, Drake London 9/125, A.J. Brown 8/130/2, DK Metcalf 7/98.

The Cowboys have unleashed Lamb the past five weeks, moving him all over the field, and he's responded with huge numbers, averaging 9.4 catches for 131 yards. He's playing as well as any receiver in the league. Washington has allowed 8/100 five times already and nearly a sixth, and Lamb has done it in three of his last five and one catch away from a fourth time. He's topped 150 yards in three of the last four, so sprinkle the 150+ for a Thanksgiving game to remember.

Everything seems lined up for another huge Cowboys win here, but I can't get over that Thanksgiving Dallas streak of 1-11 ATS the past 12 years. Weird things just seem to happen in these games, so I'll stay away from even the teaser temptation.

But I gotta have a little action on the afternoon Thanksgiving game, so if my hunch about Dallas is right, it'll probably mean another huge day from the biggest star on the field. How about a nice little holiday pairing of turkey and Lamb?

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49ers vs Seahawks Odds, Picks

• This is the one Thanksgiving game with major injury news coming in. Seattle will be without RB Kenneth Walker, though it looks for now like Geno Smith will play through pain as he did on Sunday when Drew Lock came in on replacement for awhile. The 49ers lost S Talanoa Hufanga for the season, a huge hit (literally) to one of the team's strengths and a blow to the run defense in particular.
• These division rivals met three times last season, and it did not go well for Seattle. The 49ers won all three games by 20, 8, and 18 points, scoring almost 30 PPG and holding the Seahawks to 14.3.
• Historically, this has been a good spot to back Pete Carroll. He's 60% ATS as an underdog, 65% ATS as a division dog, and 61% ATS after a loss. Geno Smith is 10-3 ATS (77%) as a division underdog.

The 49ers are just a terrible matchup for Seattle, a team that struggles to tackle cleanly and a QB in Geno Smith that falls apart under pressure and on late downs when San Francisco's defense attacks with ferocity. Seattle's offensive line should struggle against Chase Young and the renewed Niners pass rush, and the 49ers offense is back to peak form in recent weeks now that it's healthy.

Thanksgiving night favorites are 12-4 ATS (75%), and Thursday night favorites of seven or more are 42-27 ATS (61%) if it gets there. Non-Cowboys Thanksgiving favorites are 29-9 ATS (76%). The better team is typically cruising in these Thursday night battles, and the 49ers are far better. Grab this line before it hits the key number of -7 if possible, or consider teasing San Francisco down if you like, as this is now 49ers -7 across the board.

Seattle's offense struggled mightily against the 49ers in all three matchups last season, and now the team has the Walker and Smith injuries on top of it. If the Seahawks are going to keep this one close, it'll have to be the young defense.

The under has been the right place to start in primetime games, and it looks like the right play here. Primetime unders are hitting at 62% the last four years, including now 27-8 (77%) this season. Thanksgiving night unders are 11-5 (69%) all time, and games featuring a home underdog have gone under 62% of the time the last two seasons and 65% this year.

Seattle games have finished at 44 or below in six of the last seven, and San Francisco in three of the last five. This is just below the key number but hasn't fallen too far yet, with 43 another key number for totals fast approaching.

This was one of my Sunday picks on The Hot Read, and I'm sticking with the trends. I like that this bet gives us a few outs. If it's another slow Thursday night primetime game without much scoring, we're covered. But if the Seahawks get blown out and Geno Smith ends up limited or out, we might still win that way, too, if Seattle's offense totally peters out and the Seahawks lose 34-6 or something. I'm pretty concerned about Seattle's injuries and just don't see this going super well for the Seahawks.

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Dolphins vs Jets Odds, Picks

• It's our first ever Black Friday game! Get that shopping out of the way early and settle in back home for Thanksgiving leftovers and an afternoon kickoff.
• The Zach Wilson experiment is officially over, again, this time for real. Tim Boyle played in relief of Wilson Sunday and he'll get the fourth start of his career after going 0-3 for the 3-12-1 Lions in 2021, though he was not terrible in those starts. It looks like he'll be playing without LT Mekhi Becton.
• The Dolphins have won nine of the last 11 meetings between these division rivals, though the Jets have held their own at home, winning four of the last eight in New York.

There's little questioning how great the Jets defense has played all season, especially against the pass. But New York actually ranks below average by DVOA against opposing WR1s, and the Jets have given up some pretty juicy lines to opposing stars: Stefon Diggs 10/102, CeeDee Lamb 11/143, A.J. Brown 7/131, Keenan Allen 8/77, and Davante Adams 6/86.

I don't need to tell you about the ridiculous production Tyreek Hill has put up game after game, still on record pace over halfway through the season. He's gone over 75.5 yards in seven of 10 games (70%), and he has 112+ in six of them and 146+ in half. The Jets defense is too good to get too crazy with escalators here, but expect Hill to clear 76 like usual and put some of your bet on 100+ yards too at +235.

Ten is a lot of points against a defense this good playing at home, and you have to believe this team comes out with some energy and vigor now that the Jets have finally moved on from Zach Wilson. Tim Boyle can't help but be an improvement, and Miami's defense has been worse on the road and in the first half, so that could help the Jets hang around early.

Nobody wants to invest in Boyle or the Jets here against the mighty Dolphins offense, which is exactly why we have to. Home underdogs of 10-to-14 points are 65-44 ATS (60%), and underdogs on a three-game losing streak both straight up and against the spread are 94-64-5 ATS (59%). Dogs that scored 16 or fewer points in each of their three previous games like the Jets are 32-16-1 ATS (67%) since 2019.

What goes down must come up? The trends tell us the number is just too long.

I think the Jets come out fired up about the QB change and keep this close, but I can't not bet on the first ever Black Friday game and I can't ignore these bad Tyreek Hill lines. I looked at 8+ receptions (+225) and 10+ (+725) too. He's had eight catches in 7-of-10 games and double digits three times, and I don't mind if you set up an 8-catch 100-yard SGP. I'll keep it simple and sprinkle Hill's yardage and see if I can get some Black Friday shopping money.

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