NFL Week 6 Betting Trends, Stats, Notes: Action Network Betting Primer

NFL Week 6 Betting Trends, Stats, Notes: Action Network Betting Primer article feature image

The Falcons are undefeated against the spread. The Eagles are undefeated straight up. Wild times entering Week 6! Let's look at the slate with the betting trends, stats and notes you need to know.

Welcome to Week 6 of the Action Network's NFL betting primer.

1. The Streak Is Over.

After 41 home starts, Patrick Mahomes is a home underdog for the first time in his NFL career — the longest streak of being a home favorite to begin a career.

Overall, Mahomes is 7-0-1 against the spread as an underdog.

2. Five For Fighting.

The Atlanta Falcons are 5-0 against the spread for the first time in franchise history.

Since 1980, there have been 25 teams to start a season 5-0 ATS. The Falcons are the first 5-0 ATS team to be under .500 straight up in the past 40 years.

3. Steel City.

The Pittsburgh Steelers haven't quite seen a year like this in a while. If the Steelers close as high as a 9.5-point home underdog vs. the Buccaneers, it will be their biggest spot as a home dog in the past 40 years.

The Steelers as home dogs over the past 20 years: 15-9 SU, 17-4-3 ATS
Mike Tomlin as a home underdog: 13-8 SU, 15-3-3 ATS

Steelers biggest home underdog spots in past 50 years:

+10, 2022 vs. Bucs
+9, 1989 vs. Vikings (W, 27-14)
+7.5, 2016 vs. Patriots (L, 27-16)
+7.5, 1991 vs. Oilers (W, 26-14)

4. You're Fired!

Over the past 20 years, 32 teams have fired their coach in-season. Those teams have gone 15-17 straight up and 17-15 against the spread in their next game.

A 48% straight-up win rate might not look great, but those teams had an 87-231-2 straight up record (27.4%) prior to the head coaching change. They also compiled a 118-196-5 ATS record (37.6%) prior to the coaching change.

Great information from Stuckey.

5. No Rest for the Weary.

The Packers will play the Jets and the Giants will play the Ravens –both without a bye week in between — after Green Bay and New York played in London last week.

Only seven times in NFL history has a team returned home from Europe without a bye week. Every one of those teams was tied or trailing in the fourth quarter the following week, with the opponent team totals going 6-1 to the over.

Great information from Brandon Anderson.

6. We're Going Streaking…

The under has cashed in 10 consecutive Bengals and Colts games entering this week. If either team goes under the total in their games this week, some history is on the line.

Here are the longest over or under streaks for NFL teams over the past 20 years. The longest streak belongs to the 2010-11 Dallas Cowboys, whose games went over the total in 12 straight contests.

Longest Over or Under Streaks – Past 20 Years

12 Overs — 2010-11 Dallas Cowboys
11 Unders — 2008-09 Washington, 2003-04 Bills
11 Overs — 2007-08 Jaguars, 2005-06 Jets
10 Unders — 2021-22 Bengals, 2021-22 Colts, 2018-19 Broncos, 2015-16 Falcons, 2011-12 Dolphins

All data, stats and trends are updated as of Sunday, Oct. 16, 1 a.m. ET.

NFL Week 6

Click on a topic to skip ahead
Thursday Night Football
Commanders (12) at Bears (7)
Market Movers
Biggest Week 6 Line Moves
Sharp Report
How the Pros Are Betting Week 6
The Big Picture
Introducing "The Stat Sheet"
Rapid Fire
Week 6 Game-by-Game Betting Notes
Action Audio
Best NFL Podcasts for Week 6
What's Next?
Early Week 7 Betting Trends

Thursday Night Football

Thursday, Oct. 13
8:20 p.m. ET
Commanders Odds
Bears Odds
Odds via FanDuel. Get up-to-the-minute NFL odds here.

Low, Low, Low…

+ The under is 35-26-1 (57.4%) on Thursday Night Football over the past 20 years when the over/under is below 42.
+ The under is now 16-5 (76%) in the last 21 games on Thursday Night Football.
+ Unders at night are 11-5 so far this season. Going back even further, unders at night are 105-74-3 (58.7%) since 2019.

And in this sweet spot range with a total from 37 to 40, Thursday night unders are a ridiculous 18–4–1 (82%) and go under by 9.7 points per game.

Lost In The Fields…

+ The Bears are 19-35-1 ATS since 2019 and are the least profitable team ATS in the NFL.
+ Fields is 0-4 SU, 1-3 ATS at night. With an ATS loss, he would be the least profitable Bears QB ATS in primetime over the past 20 years.
+ Fields is 0-4 SU at night. No other Bears QB over the past 20 years has more than three losses without a win at night.

The Good, The Bad & The Ugly…

+ Carson Wentz is 16-8 SU/ATS at night. He’s the most profitable QB ATS at night in the NFL over the past decade (+$695).
+ Wentz is 6-0 in his career on TNF- most wins without a loss by any starting QB on Thursday Night Football in the Super Bowl era.
+ In the past decade, the Commanders are 8-20-1 ATS at night, the least profitable team at night in the NFL.
+ In those 29 night games, Washington is 3-11 SU, 3-10-1 ATS on the road.

Giving It Away.Road QBs have thrown an interception in 12 of 16 night games this season.

Back & Forth. Commanders were 1.5-point favorites on the lookahead line. If the Bears close as favorites, it will already be the 3rd night game this year to have a team open as an underdog and close as a favorite — those teams went 0-2 SU/ATS. Over the past 20 years, those teams are 18-32 ATS.

Starting Slow. The Bears are 0-5 against the first-half spread this season (T-worst with Cardinals/Colts).

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Market Movers

For more information on betting percentages, line moves and ticket counts, access our Action Network odds dashboard.

Biggest NFL Week 6 Public Sides
(The most popular spread bets for Week 6)

76% of bets at Saints
66% of bets at Eagles
66% of bets at Steelers

Most Bet Games by Ticket Count in Week 6
(The most popular bet games for Week 6, excluding Thursday Night Football)

80,000 betting tickets
75,000 betting tickets
70,000 betting tickets

Biggest Line Moves in Week 6

Spread Movers (lines compared to lookahead lines):

(PK to -6.5)
6.5-pt move vs. Cowboys
(+3 to -3)
6-pt move at Dolphins
(+7 to +1.5)
5.5-pt move at Colts

» Return to the table of contents «

The Sharp Report

PRO Report

Sharp bet
Steelers +10 | Sunday, 1:00 PM ET
Bet %
TB: 66% of Bets
Handle %
PIT: 74% of Handle

If you want to make betting decisions for yourself but don’t have the time to collect all the data, check out our NFL PRO Report. This analysis highlights five key betting signals: big money, sharp action, expert projections, expert picks and historical betting systems.

Our model's odds are compared to the consensus odds. We recommend at least a B Grade 3.5% edge before considering a bet based solely on projections.

PRO Systems

Bet Against Public After Bad Game. Don't bet based off what you just saw. This is an opportunity to go against the grain.
Week 5 picks -> PRO Access

PRO Props

Top Props for Week 6: Kenny Pickett, Steelers
Bet: Under 22.5 completions (-115)

Prop projections and grades for every NFL player in the Action App.

How to use the Action Network's PRO Report to make your betting decisions easier.

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The Big Picture

NEW ADDITION: Every week we will update 1st quarter, 1st half, full game and other trends for all 32 teams to help you easily navigate each team's strengths and weaknesses.

Super Bowl Movers: After the Eagles and Cardinals game in Week 5, both teams are going in opposite directions.
(Odds from before Week 1 to current)

SB: 25-1 to 13-2 (+650)

SB: 30-1 to 100-1



2022 Season Betting Update
Best Teams
ATS: Falcons 5-0
Moneyline: Giants 4-1 (+$612 on $100/game)
Overs: Lions & Browns both 4-1
Unders: Bengals & Colts both 5-0
This Season: 32-47-1 SU (+$577), 48-31-1 ATS
Underdogs thru 5 games since 2019: 184-134-2 ATS
Big Favorites
+ Favorites of 7 pts or more: 10-4-1 SU, 4-11 ATS
+The least profitable start for TD favorites through 5 games in the past 20 years.
The Public
(Public = 51% of tickets or more)
51%+: 31-46-1 ATS
60%+: 12-25 ATS
66%+: 7-14 ATS

For more content on NFL betting stats and notes check out our recap page on Action Network.

Fade Teams Coming Off a Game in a "Party City"…

Seattle and Dallas are both off playing in New Orleans and Los Angeles last week.

In the past 20 years, teams coming off playing in a “party city” — which we are designating as Las Vegas, Los Angeles, Atlanta, New Orleans and Miami — are 239-329-15 against the spread (42.1%).

Teams coming off a road game in a "party city" are 3-9-1 ATS this season and 49-76-4 ATS since 2019.

Week 6 Matches: Seahawks (vs. Cardinals) and Cowboys (at Eagles)

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Rapid Fire

Buccaneers at Steelers

The Brady Corner. Top Tom Brady notes and trends this week…

+ Tom Brady vs. Steelers: 12-3 SU, 11-4 ATS career.
+ Tom Brady and the Bucs have failed to cover the spread in three straight games, the first time that’s happened to Brady since 2019.
+ Since 2009, Brady is 6-0 SU/ATS after a three-plus game ATS losing streak, covering the spread by 20 PPG.
+ Brady is 20-4 SU, 14-11 ATS when facing a team coming off scoring fewer than 10 pts over the past 20 years (won 9 straight SU).
+ Since 2016, Brady is 36-6 SU and 32-13 ATS when facing a team allowing 24+ PPG.

Nobody Circles The Wagons. The Steelers lost to the Bills last week. Teams after playing Buffalo are 14-23 ATS the following week since 2020, failing to cover 10 of the past 12 games in this spot.

Getting Trucked. Under Mike Tomlin, the Steelers are 11-3-1 ATS after allowing 35+ points in their previous game.

+ Tomlin is 37-15-1 ATS (71%) as an underdog from Week 5 forward, and he’s even better at home, a nearly unbeatable 13-2-1 ATS (87%) in that spot, winning the last six such instances outright.

Under The Radar. The under is 2-0 in Bucs road games this season. Since 2016, the under is 33-23 (58.9%) in Tom Brady road games, making him the 3rd-most profitable QB to the under in that span (Ben Roethlisberger, Kyler Murray).

Steelers History…

+ Steelers haven’t been listed as TD or higher underdogs in consecutive games since Week 4-6 of 2000.
+ Steelers have lost four straight SU and are 0-3-1 ATS in those games. This is just the third time in the past 20 years that Pittsburgh has lost four straight and failed to cover any of those games:

  • Nov. 2016 (Won/covered at CLE)
  • Oct. 2013 (Won/covered at NYJ)

Bengals at Saints

The Saint Comes Home…

+ Joe Burrow's first game back in Louisiana since playing with LSU.
+ Burrow is 6-2 ATS on a road trip in the NFL (2 or more consecutive road games).
+ Burrow is 17-17-1 SU, 22-13 ATS in his career. Burrow has profited a $100 bettor $717, the most in NFL since he was drafted in 2020.
+ Burrow is 7-7-1 SU and 11-4 ATS after a SU loss.
+ Burrow has played 24 games in his career with a spread of under a FG favorite or as an underdog, he is 16-9 ATS.
+ Bengals scored just 17 points in their loss to the Ravens. Burrow is 6-1 ATS the game after scoring 17 points or less, covering by 7.1 PPG.

Streaking. The under has cashed in 10 straight Bengals games.

The Bengals are 11-2 ATS in their past 13 games. The Bengals have covered three straight games.

If Jameis Returns…

+ Jameis Winston is 4-6 ATS as starting QB of Saints (-$242). With an ATS loss, he would be the least profitable starting quarterback for New Orleans over the past 20 years.

He’s 8-19-1 ATS (29.6%) as a favorite, failing to cover in five of his past six opportunities. He’s 26-23-3 ATS as an underdog.

Fumbling The Season…

+ Saints have lost the turnover margin in four straight games in a single season for the first time since 2009.
+ Saints are 3-7 SU/ATS in their past 10 home games. The Saints have lost four straight SU/ATS as home dogs.


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Jaguars at Colts

Not Jacksonville Again…

+ The Colts have lost six straight games ATS vs. the Jaguars and are 1-13-1 ATS vs. Jacksonville dating back to 2015, failing to cover the spread by 11 PPG.
+ After a SU win, Indy is 0-5-1 ATS vs. Jaguars since 2015.
+ Since 2015, the Colts are 1-13-1 ATS (7.7%) vs. the Jaguars and 59-44-3 ATS (57.3%) vs. the other 30 NFL teams.

Matty Cold as Ice.Matt Ryan is 27-41-1 ATS over the past five seasons, losing a $100 bettor $1,580, the least profitable QB in the NFL.

+ Matt Ryan is 2-9-1 ATS after a SU win since 2020, failing to cover by 6.3 PPG.
+ Since 2014, Ryan is 13-23 ATS as a favorite off of a SU win (2nd-worst in NFL ahead of just R. Wilson).

Circle City Streaking.The under has cashed in 10 consecutive Colts games by 9.9 PPG. The Colts are the only undefeated team to the over or under since December of last year.

+ The Colts are 0-5 against the first half spread this season (t-worst with Cardinals/Bears).

Not Pretty.Trevor Lawrence is 5-17 SU, 7-15 ATS in his career (1-10 SU, 3-8 ATS on the road).

Southern Attitude. The Colts are 4-11 ATS vs. the AFC South over the past three seasons, the 2nd-least profitable team vs. their own division (Browns).

+ The Jaguars' Devin Lloyd is the current favorite to win DROY (+300), he was +1500 in the preseason.

+ TRIVIA: Who are the only two teams to be public sides in all five games this season?

The Jacksonville Jaguars and the Kansas City Chiefs — both 2-3 ATS.


Patriots at Browns

Chalk Problems. Kevin Stefanski is 8-16 (33%) against the spread (ATS) as a favorite, losing three of the last five outright.

Since becoming head coach of the Browns in 2020, he's the least profitable coach as a favorite ATS.

The Over Pound. The Browns past three home games have gone over the total (3-0 to over in 2022). Four consecutive Browns home games haven’t gone over since all the way back in 2015.

The Belichick Fund…

+ Bill Belichick with the Patriots against his former team: 8-2 SU, 7-3 ATS vs. Browns.
+ Belichick always does a great job at neutralizing opponents who score and allow a lot of points. Teams that score and allow 24+ points are just 9-18 ATS vs. Belichick since 2003.
+ Belichick after allowing less than 10 points in his past game: 16-7 ATS since 2015 (best in the NFL).
+ Belichick is one win away from history:

Most career wins for head coach:

  • Don Shula: 347
  • George Halas: 324
  • Bill Belichick: 323

Bagel Boss.In the past 20 years, teams to post a shutout and be listed as an underdog in their next game are 11-30 SU and 15-25-1 ATS.

Their Own Kind. The Patriots are just 1-6-1 ATS in their past eight games vs. the AFC.

Goat Gone. Since Tom Brady left, the Patriots have played 11 games as a road underdogs, they are 3-8 SU, 5-6 ATS.

Replacing Mac. A backup QB again in New England this week. Just the 8th time they’ve done that in the past decade (4-3 SU, 5-2 ATS).


Jets at Packers

Lambeau Love. The most profitable QB at home as a TD favorite or higher over the past 20 years:

  1. Tom Brady: 56-44-3 ATS
  2. Aaron Rodgers: 35-24-2 ATS

Rodgers Loves Coming Home…

+ After playing on the road/neutral, Rodgers is 13-7 ATS at home since 2019 & 48-25-2 ATS in his career.
+ When Rodgers loses road/neutral, he is 30-16-1 ATS in his next game, including 8-0 ATS since 2019.
+ Rodgers off a loss in his NFL career: 46-19 SU, 42-22-1 ATS

Lack of a Running Game. The Packers rushed for just 94 yards in their loss to the Giants. Aaron Rodgers has won and covered his past nine games dating back to 2018 when Green Bay rushes for fewer than 100 yards in their previous game.

Bounce Back Time?

+ Matt LeFleur was 21-0 SU as a favorite of 6-points or more prior to Green Bay’s loss last week vs. Giants.
+ Rodgers & LeFleur off a loss: 10-1 SU/ATS (10-0 ATS in the regular season).
Green Bay has won and covered 12 straight games following a loss — the longest streak in the Super Bowl era of teams winning and covering following a loss.

Buyer Beware.Don’t blindly bet the bounceback. Teams to lose as a TD or more favorite, and that are listed as a TD or more favorite again are just 32-34-1 ATS over the past 20 years.

Trust The Jets? Underdogs are 62-38-3 ATS in games officiated by Clete Blakeman since 2016 (best in NFL).

What a Packers Loss Would Mean…

+ Teams to lose to the Jets and Giants in consecutive games over the past decade: 2019 MIA, 2016 BAL, 2014 TENN.
+ Teams to lose consecutive games as over a TD favorite over the past decade: 2021 IND, 2020 SF, 2017 KC, 2017 ATL, 2015 ATL, 2013 HOU.


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Ravens at Giants

Post Black & Blue.Lamar Jackson is 8-4 ATS the week after facing a divisional opponent and 6-0 SU (4-2 ATS) after facing the Bengals.

Know Your Role.Lamar Jackson is just 22-25 ATS as a favorite and 9-2 ATS as an underdog in his career.

Crossing The Line. Lamar Jackson has also never lost to an NFC team as a starter. He’s a perfect 12-0 SU (5-7 ATS).

The Met Life. The under is 14-1 in the Giants past 15 home games, going under the total by 9.5 PPG.

Since the start of 2020, Giants home games are 16-3 to the under, the most profitable home team to the under in that span.

The Dog Hunter. Daniel Jones has won and covered four straight games as a home underdog.

+ Daniel Jones career: Home: 9-13 ATS | Road/Neutral: 14-6 ATS (#3 of 85 QBs)

Chalk Eaters. The Giants are 3-0 SU as underdogs this season.

Only four teams have started 3-0 SU or better as dogs through the first five games since 2016: 2022 NYG, 2019 SF, 2018 TENN, 2016 ATL.

+ The 4-1 Giants are home dogs this week. Teams with an 80%+ win pct. are 50-32-2 ATS as home dogs over the past 20 years.
+ Giants are the first team in the past decade to be winning and covering 80% of their games and be a home underdog in game six or later.
+ Giants are the 13th team in the past 20 years to win as an underdog on a neutral field. Previous 12 teams are 1-11 SU, 4-8 ATS next game, failing to cover by 10 PPG.


Vikings at Dolphins

A Start Unlike Any Other…

+ The Vikings are the first team in the past 20 years to start 4-1 SU or better (win 80%+ of games SU), but just 1-4 ATS (20% or less cover rate) or worse.

Minnesota has lost four consecutive games against the spread.

Captain Chaos…

+ Kirk Cousins has played five games with the Vikings on at least a 3-game ATS losing streak, Minnesota is 0-5 ATS.
+ Cousins is 3-9 ATS in toss up road games (spread of +3 to -3) since 2018. Of 64 QBs since 2018, Cousins is ranked 63rd ATS.

The Jets Curse. Dolphins lost to the Jets in Week 5. The past 12 teams to lose to New York are 2-10 ATS in their next game dating back to 2019.

Over The Wall. The over is 33-15 in Brad Rogers’ 48 games officiated since 2019, making him the most profitable official to the over in that span.

South Beach Love. The Dolphins won and covered three straight home games. Miami won eight straight home games SU (7-1 ATS).

+ Dolphins 24-11 ATS at home since 2018, most profitable team in the NFL.


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49ers at Falcons

Good Teams Win, Great Teams Cover…

Here is every 5-0 ATS team since 1980:

2022 ATL, 2021 DAL, 2018 KC, 2017 KC, 2016 MIN, 2015 GB, 2014 LAC, 2009 NO, 2009 DEN, 2008 TEN, 2007 NE, 2004 PHI, 2003 MIN, 2003 IND, 1999 STL, 1994 SD, 1993 NYG, 1990 NYG, 1988 CIN, 1986 WAS, 1984 SF, 1982 GB, 1981 PHI, 1980 BAL, 1980 BUF

  • The Falcons are the 1st 5-0 ATS team to be under .500 SU in the past 40 years.

A 5-0 ATS Rarity…

  • Falcons are 1st 5-0 ATS team to be home dogs since 2015 Steelers (PIT W, 25-13). Only other time in the past 20 years.
  • Falcons are the 1st 5-0 ATS team to average under 200 passing yards since the 2015 Packers. And they're only the third such team this decade: 2015 GB, 2014 SD.

Reminder: There is no advantage to undefeated ATS teams as of now.

Undefeated teams ATS in game 6 or later are an even 21-21-1 ATS over the past 20 years.

Oh, Carl.Underdogs are 27-13 ATS in games officiated by Carl Cheffers since 2020.

First Class. The 49ers played the Panthers in Carolina last week and now face the Falcons in Atlanta. PST teams playing back-to-back games in EST are 10-9 SU and 13-4-2 ATS over the past 20 years. 49ers are 6-0 ATS in that spot.

+ 49ers are 5-0 against the first-half spread this season (t-best with Eagles).

Trust Mariota?Marcus Mariota's team total points scored in his past five games vs. defenses allowing 17 PPG or less: 15, 7, 0, 15, 17.

+ Marcus Mariota Career Against The Spread:

  • 2022: 5-0 ATS
  • 2015-21: 26-35-2 ATS – 4th-least profitable QB in NFL.

Cardinals at Seahawks

Road Kliff. Kliff Kingsbury and Kyler Murray have excelled on the road and struggled at home with the Cardinals.

Kliff Kingsbury NFL career:

  • Home: 9-17-1 SU, 10-17 ATS
  • Road: 17-11 SU, 19-7-2 ATS

Kyler Murray by timezone: PST/MST: 14-19-2 ATS | EST/CST: 13-4 ATS

Split Personality. The Cardinals splits by quarter this season are unbelievable.

Cardinals vs. Opponents By Quarter:
1Q == 0-38
2Q == 26-42
3Q == 17-27
4Q == 56-16
OT == 6-0

The Cardinals have been outscored, 123-105.
+ 1H: ARI 26, Opp 80
+ 2H/OT: ARI 79, Opp 43

Stay Close.Home divisional underdogs since 2020: 51-37 ATS (58%).

+ Divisional underdogs went 6-0 ATS in Week 5. 16-12 ATS in 2022. 173-142-7 ATS past 4 years, profitable each season.

Tough Start. Cardinals are 0-5 against the first-half spread this season (t-worst with Bears/Colts).

Early Overs.The 1H over is 5-0 in Seahawks games this season, the only undefeated team to the over or under in the 1H this season.


Panthers at Rams

The Rhule Is Over. Over the past 20 years, 32 teams have fired their coach in-season. Those teams have gone 15-17 straight up and 17-15 against the spread in their next game.

A 48% straight-up win rate might not look great, but those teams had an 87-231-2 straight up record (27.4%) prior to the head coaching change. They also compiled a 118-196-5 ATS (37.6%) record prior to the coaching change.

Oh, Dear…

+ Panthers are 1-27 SU and 5-23 ATS when their opponent scores 17 pts or more since 2020.
+ Since Oct. 1, 2021, Panthers are 3-16 ATS. In that span, no other team has fewer than 6 ATS wins.

Walk Right Down. PJ Walker makes his third career start this week against the Rams. He is 2-0 SU/ATS, winning both games as underdogs.

If the Panthers cover, Walker will become the 3rd-most profitable Panthers QB ATS in the past 20 years: Matt Moore (9-4 ATS), Cam Newton (70-64-2 ATS), PJ Walker (3-0 ATS).

Leaving The Past…

  • Since Baker Mayfield’s first start in 2018, he's ranked 104th of 105 QBs against the spread: 26-39-1 ATS.
  • Since Sam Darnold’s first start in 2018, he's ranked 102nd of 105 QBs against the spread: 18-30-1 ATS.

Bounce Back?Under .500 teams straight up, who are favored by double digits, like the Rams, are 33-52-2 ATS over the past 20 years.

+ Rams are just the third defending Super Bowl champion to be under .500 SU through 5 games: 2018 Eagles and 2006 Steelers.

What To Expect…

  • Since the beginning of last season, the Rams are 0-3 ATS after scoring 10 pts or less in their previous game.

Falling Behind. Rams and the Broncos are the only two teams with a win total of 10 or more with just two wins or less entering Week 6.


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Bills at Chiefs

Best vs. Best. History between Patrick Mahomes and Josh Allen:

+ Mahomes is 3-1 SU/ATS vs. Bills.
+ Road team has won both regular season matchups, home team has won both playoff matchups between Mahomes/Allen.
+ Over is 3-1 in the four matchups, over by 5.1 PPG. At 53.5, lowest total of five games (57, 55, 54.5, 54).
+ Mahomes is an incredible 13-2-1 ATS (87%) when he’s not at least a 3.5-point favorite lifetime, winning eight of his last nine

So High. The average total for Patrick Mahomes vs. Josh Allen in their 4 matchups is 55.3. That average is the highest for any QB matchup in the last 35 seasons.

The First Time. Patrick Mahomes has never closed as a home underdog in his NFL career.

Mahomes Shortest Home Spreads

-2.5, 2022 playoffs vs. BUF (W 42-36)

-2.5, 2021 vs. DAL (W 19-9)

-2.5, 2021 vs. BUF (L 38-20)

Never Forget. Patrick Mahomes is 7-0-1 ATS as an underdog in his career.

+ Mahomes vs. teams allowing 17 PPG or less: 8-1 SU, 7-2 ATS (only loss? home vs. Bills).
+ Mahomes on short rest (6 days or less): 7-2 SU, 4-5 ATS.

Joshing Around.Josh Allen vs. teams on short rest: 7-2 SU, 6-2-1 ATS (won 6 straight SU since 2020).

Points, Points, Points.The over is 20-2 in the last 20 years when Andy Reid is a home underdog (6-0 with Chiefs).

Hold The Door.The biggest advantage in Buffalo? The Bills second half. Under Josh Allen, the Bills are 45-23-3 (66.2%) against the second-half spread.

+ Scared to ride Buffalo after they lead at the half? Don’t. The Bills are 28-11-1 (71.8%) against the second-half spread when leading at the half.
+ Bills have covered the 2H in 10 of their past 12 games.
+ When leading at the half, the Bills have covered the 2H spread in eight straight games, including in 17 of their past 20.

Best Of The Best. The Bills entering Week 6: 30.4 PPG, allowing 12.2 PPG.

Only five teams have averaged 30+ PPG and allowed less than 13 PPG in game 6 or later over the past 20 years: 22 BUF, 21 BUF, 19 NE, 06 CHI, 06 SD.


Cowboys at Eagles

Is It Time? Jalen Hurts is 0-2 SU/ATS vs. the Cowboys (the only other team he's 0-2 ATS against is the Cardinals).

Streaking. Eagles have won now their past eight regular season games in which Jalen Hurts starts — the longest active streak among NFL QBs.

Strike The Pose

+ Nick Sirianni is currently the favorite to win Coach of the Year (+150). He was +2000 in the preseason.
+ When MVP odds opened in February, Jalen Hurts was 40-1. By Week 1 he was 22-1, entering Week 4 he was down to 7-1 and now he’s +550, which is fourth behind Josh Allen, Patrick Mahomes and Lamar Jackson.

Strength vs. Strength. The Eagles have a tough test ahead. 5-0 SU teams facing opponents 4-1 SU/ATS or better are 1-4-2 ATS over the past 20 years. The only cover in that span? The 2007 Patriots against the Cowboys.

+ 5-0 SU teams who face a defense allowing 17 PPG or less are 3-7 SU and 2-6-2 ATS over the past 20 years.

Easy Schedule? Jacksonville is the only team so far that the Eagles have faced that ranks above average in EPA per dropback.

Starting Strong. Eagles are 5-0 against first-half spread this season (t-best with 49ers)

Cover Machines. Since start of last season, the Cowboys (17-6 ATS) are the most profitable team against the spread.

Such A Rush. Over the past decade, the Cowboys backups have played 22 total games. They are 10-12 SU/ATS.

Cowboy backup QBs have won and covered eight of their past nine starts with Cooper Rush and Andy Dalton. Prior to that streak, they were 1-12 SU, 2-11 ATS since 2013.

The List. In the past 20 years, Cooper Rush (5-0 ATS) is currently the ONLY undefeated QB against the spread (minimum 4 starts).

5-0 SU/ATS in their first five career starts:

  • Cooper Rush, DAL
  • Kyle Allen, CAR
  • Ben Roethlisberger, PIT
  • Kurt Warner, STL
  • Patrick Mahomes, KC

Broncos at Chargers

Falling Behind. Rams and the Broncos are the only two teams with a win total of 10 or more with just two wins or less entering Week 6.

Russell's Struggles…
+ Russell Wilson is 0-2 SU/ATS career vs. Chargers
+ Since 2020, Russell Wilson is 0-3 ATS on 10+ days rest.
+ Russell Wilson is 0-4-1 ATS on more than a week’s rest off a SU loss.

​​The biggest NFL MVP liability at BetMGM? It's Russell Wilson, who is now +6600 to win the award (started +1400 before Week 1).

The Torbert Zone. The under is 28-9-1 (76%) in the 38 games officiated by Ron Torbert since 2020, the most profitable ref to the under in that span by over $1,000.

Russell Wilson Career ATS

  • 1st 3 years (2012-14): 36-19-1 ATS (best in NFL)
  • 2015-present: 55-62-6 ATS (under .500 ATS in 7 of 8 years)

Prime Issues. In Russell Wilson’s career, he is 29-19-3 ATS under the lights (6 p.m. ET or later). But recently, Wilson is just 3-11 ATS in his past 14 starts in primetime.

Follow The Total. Chargers over/under results under Brandon Staley based on what the total is:

  • Under 50: 10-2 to the over
  • 50 or more: 7-3 to the under


Action Audio

  • The Favorites Podcast: Chad and Simon debut a new live recording session of The Favorites, available every week on the free Amp app or via the web at for the rest of this NFL season! Just follow @TheFavorites on Amp to join our live show recordings every Tuesday at 1:30pm ET and every Thursday at 11am ET. This week, Chad and Simon use their Action Network data to dive into the best bets for NFL Week 6, including a long look at the Steelers and the Dolphins, plus a potential buy on the suddenly resurgent New York Jets.

  • The Action Network Podcast: Action Network host Brendan Glasheen is joined by NFL betting experts Brandon Anderson, Dane Martinez and Luke Swain, also known as Vegas Refund on Twitter, for another NFL Best Bets episode for Week 6. Together they lay out nine total bets for this week's slate. Tune in to hear who the guys are backing and who they think stink. Yeah, that's exactly what they said. They stink. Plus, a top lookahead spot for NFL Week 7 that might have you playing some player prop and team futures as well.

For more Action Network podcasts, check out our page with a portfolio of ten different options across eight different sports.

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What's Next?

Saints at Cardinals

+ Teams coming off playing in Seattle have won 11 consecutive games SU and are 26-10 SU and 22-13-1 ATS since 2018.
+ Primetime Andy Dalton: 6-18 SU, 9-15 ATS (1-10 SU, 4-7 ATS as dog). He's started 5 primetime games outside EST: 0-5 SU. Lost 117-34 in last 3 games in this spot.
+ Kliff Kingshury and Kyler Murray: 0-3 SU/ATS in primetime as favorites.

Thursday Night Football Unders:

+ 22-12 (64.7%) since 2020 (5-1 this season).
+ When total moves down on TNF: 40-28 (59%) since 2015.

Lions at Cowboys

+ Lions are 11-7-1 SU, 14-5 ATS off a bye (13 days or more) over the last 20 years, the most profitable team ATS off bye last 20 years.

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