New England Patriots Odds

This line has gotten out of control. I wouldn’t buy the 3.5 at anything more expensive than a -110 but the fact that this line has moved 2 points from the open is fueled the ego of sharps. Not saying they are right or wrong, I don’t have a strong opinion on the outcome of the game, this is simply about buying a number at a reasonable price point.

B105

Jarrett Stidham ⬆️ 31.5 Pass Attempts (-124/-130 @ BetMGM)(DEN) I know... this feels grimy, but I see value here. The last time we saw Stidham in a regular season game was in 2023. Here are the stat line of those two games: vs LAC: 20 of 32 (62.5%) for 224, 1 TD/0 INT, 6 rushes for 6 yards @ LAR: 20 of 34 (58.8%) for 272, 1 TD/1 INT, 3 rushes for 2 yards Not terrible. We'll take it with a grain of salt, but here are his stats from the preseason: 30 of 38 (79%) for 376 yards with 4 passing touchdowns and no interceptions (2 games) Also, not terrible. Now, people have definitely seen something in Stidham. He was highly regarded in New England and was one of the first acquisitions by Payton as the Broncos head coach. Payton also expressed his confidence in Stidham, “I say this respectfully, and I told the team this. I said, ‘I’m not worried about Stiddy in this game. I’m worried about everyone else and how we play,' and that really is the truth." That signals to me that he's going to be willing to let Jarrett throw. We ultimately should see a competitive game or trailing game script here. If you look at Bo Nix's advanced season numbers as a thrower, they aren't very good. They'll miss Nix's rushing upside, but I think Stidham can still run the ship. New England is a pass funnel defense and Denver has had struggles running the ball this playoffs. With J.K. Dobbins ruled out, I think Denver won't be able to get much on the ground. I think we see a solid game out of Jarrett Stidham and a gameplan with plenty of passing. Most projections have his pass attempts around 34-35 and I think this line should be 33.5. Giddy up!

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+800 available at FD is fine too https://www.actionnetwork.com/nfl/nfl-playoff-predictions-expert-data-driven-picks-conference-championship

If you can get a full unit down, I'd go full unit. I could only get half a unit. https://www.actionnetwork.com/nfl/nfl-playoff-predictions-expert-data-driven-picks-conference-championship

Boyd / FanDuel

These are two teams I haven't totally believed in all year — neither one has cracked the top seven of my power ratings all season — yet here we are in the AFC Championship Game, and none of that strength of schedule mumbo jumbo matters much anymore. I put Denver on fraud watch last week and loaded up on Buffalo stock, but the Broncos got the W. Did that prove us wrong, though? Hard to say. The Broncos needed five turnovers and about seven straight 50/50 calls to eke out a lucky win in overtime as home favorites, so was that really all that convincing? New England hasn't felt particularly overwhelming yet either. It feels more like the Patriots let both playoff opponents so far beat themselves, certainly a sound enough strategy when it works. And maybe it will a third straight week, now that the Patriots have lucked into Jarrett Stidham! By season-long numbers, the weak link on the field is New England's defense, which ranked 25th by DVOA for the season, bottom quarter of the league. Denver's offense actually leapt to the top quarter over the final third of the season — but that was with Bo Nix, of course. New England's offense had great metrics during the season but has been underwhelming at best in the playoffs, and Denver's much-ballyhooed defense has faded mightily down the stretch, too. The Patriots faced only one top-five defense the entire regular season but will now face their third in three weeks in the postseason. That one regular season matchup came against the Browns, and New England had only one drive over seven plays. The Patriots did find points with some explosive plays and short-field scores after turnovers, and that's what the Patriots offense has looked like in the playoffs. But will that work against Denver? New England leads the league in deep passing EPA and explosives, including almost 20% of its passing plays, but Denver's defense was best in the league limiting explosive plays this season at just 8%. That's once every eight plays the Patriots would typically expect a chunk play that this Broncos defense might take away, and Drake Maye's offense has not shown an ability to go on long sustained drives these playoffs. Denver's run defense matches up well too, shutting down outside runs and funneling the run inside. Buffalo exploited that with a power rushing attack, but New England has not run well inside and may not get its outside explosives. The Patriots offensive line has also struggled in these playoffs. Rookie Will Campbell ranks just 87th of 98 tackles in pressure rate allowed since returning from injury, and he and fellow rookie Jared Wilson leave the left side of the line quite vulnerable against Nik Bonitto and a Broncos defensive front that led the league in pressures this season. New England also ranks below average in red zone offense and dead last defensively, while Denver ranks top five in both areas. Red zone is invariably tiny sample, but if those trends hold up, that could mean seven turning into three a time or two, and that can swing a game. What about New England's defense? The Patriots have looked pretty good on that end in the playoffs, but this is probably a sell-high spot for tha tunit. Teams that allow 16 points or less in both playoff games heading into the Conference Championship are 0-6 SU. New England's defense has lived a charmed life against terrible Texans and Chargers offensive lines, both maybe bottom five in the entire league. Denver's offensive line will be like going from rookie to all-Pro on Madden, since the Broncos are a top three unit. Defense gets much harder when you're not dominating the trenches, and New England's pass rush has been unreliable for most of the season. Its run defense has also cratered down the stretch, though the return of Milton Williams has helped. If Denver can dominate the trenches, the Broncos have a real chance. In particular, that outstanding offensive line can give Jarrett Stidham a chance. Denver ranks top five in short passing volume, so Stidham should be able to stand and deliver, and the Broncos should be able to run the ball some and maybe even break some long outside runs. The matchup tells us Denver has some real advantages. And this line is all wrong. Bo Nix represented floor for the Broncos, not ceiling. But what if that great offensive line and Sean Payton's coaching staff were just as responsible for the floor? Might Stidham slot right in without a huge dropoff? This spread was listed as Broncos -1.5 before last weekend but reopened at Patriots -5.5, which means the Nix injury swung the line a full seven points. That's down to six now but it's still far too high. I've seen book makers suggest about four points, and I'd make it more like two or three, but six or seven is absurd, closer to what someone like Josh Allen or Patrick Mahomes is worth. The truth is that we don't know a ton about Stidham after four career starts, though he did drop 365 yards and three scores in his debut as a 10-point underdog against the No. 1 defense 49ers in an overtime loss. It's worth noting, though, that quarterbacks making their first start of the season in the playoffs are an ugly 1-7 SU since 1950, and that one win was by Frank Reich in a game he trailed 35-3. It will be tough for the Broncos to win — but they have a great chance to cover this inflated line. Home playoff dogs of four or more points are 5-0 ATS over the last two decades, covering by 8.0 PPG. They lost three of those games in one-score hearbreakers, but they've been competitive in every game. Sean Payton also has a great history with backup quarterbacks at 14-7 ATS, including 12-9 SU, and those numbers get even better when you filter out some meaningless last-week-of-season games. It's almost always a good idea to bet on the 1-seed in the Conference Championship. They're 21-5 SU since 2006, including 12-3 against 2-seeds and an impressive 5-1 as anything worse than a field goal favorite, with an average margin of +10.0 PPG. This line is just all wrong. New England should not be favored by anywhere near this much on the road in a tough environment in such a big spot, and the Broncos should never have been downgraded this far from Nix to Stidham. Grab Broncos +5.5 (DraftKings) or best number you can find above the key number. I think the Patriots win a squeaker, but if you do think Denver wins, you should consider playing more aggressively than a simple +210 moneyline. That's barely worth the squeeze, and do you really want Stidham having to win a close one late against Maye? If you like Denver to win, you probably need a more comfortable game script, with Denver's defense dominating, maybe even creating a couple big turnovers or a defensive score. Skip the moneyline and try something a bit more aggressive, something like Broncos -5.5 at +350 or Broncos -9.5 at +630 (FanDuel).

These are two teams I haven't totally believed in all year — neither one has cracked the top seven of my power ratings all season — yet here we are in the AFC Championship Game, and none of that strength of schedule mumbo jumbo matters much anymore. I put Denver on fraud watch last week and loaded up on Buffalo stock, but the Broncos got the W. Did that prove us wrong, though? Hard to say. The Broncos needed five turnovers and about seven straight 50/50 calls to eke out a lucky win in overtime as home favorites, so was that really all that convincing? New England hasn't felt particularly overwhelming yet either. It feels more like the Patriots let both playoff opponents so far beat themselves, certainly a sound enough strategy when it works. And maybe it will a third straight week, now that the Patriots have lucked into Jarrett Stidham! By season-long numbers, the weak link on the field is New England's defense, which ranked 25th by DVOA for the season, bottom quarter of the league. Denver's offense actually leapt to the top quarter over the final third of the season — but that was with Bo Nix, of course. New England's offense had great metrics during the season but has been underwhelming at best in the playoffs, and Denver's much-ballyhooed defense has faded mightily down the stretch, too. The Patriots faced only one top-five defense the entire regular season but will now face their third in three weeks in the postseason. That one regular season matchup came against the Browns, and New England had only one drive over seven plays. The Patriots did find points with some explosive plays and short-field scores after turnovers, and that's what the Patriots offense has looked like in the playoffs. But will that work against Denver? New England leads the league in deep passing EPA and explosives, including almost 20% of its passing plays, but Denver's defense was best in the league limiting explosive plays this season at just 8%. That's once every eight plays the Patriots would typically expect a chunk play that this Broncos defense might take away, and Drake Maye's offense has not shown an ability to go on long sustained drives these playoffs. Denver's run defense matches up well too, shutting down outside runs and funneling the run inside. Buffalo exploited that with a power rushing attack, but New England has not run well inside and may not get its outside explosives. The Patriots offensive line has also struggled in these playoffs. Rookie Will Campbell ranks just 87th of 98 tackles in pressure rate allowed since returning from injury, and he and fellow rookie Jared Wilson leave the left side of the line quite vulnerable against Nik Bonitto and a Broncos defensive front that led the league in pressures this season. New England also ranks below average in red zone offense and dead last defensively, while Denver ranks top five in both areas. Red zone is invariably tiny sample, but if those trends hold up, that could mean seven turning into three a time or two, and that can swing a game. What about New England's defense? The Patriots have looked pretty good on that end in the playoffs, but this is probably a sell-high spot for tha tunit. Teams that allow 16 points or less in both playoff games heading into the Conference Championship are 0-6 SU. New England's defense has lived a charmed life against terrible Texans and Chargers offensive lines, both maybe bottom five in the entire league. Denver's offensive line will be like going from rookie to all-Pro on Madden, since the Broncos are a top three unit. Defense gets much harder when you're not dominating the trenches, and New England's pass rush has been unreliable for most of the season. Its run defense has also cratered down the stretch, though the return of Milton Williams has helped. If Denver can dominate the trenches, the Broncos have a real chance. In particular, that outstanding offensive line can give Jarrett Stidham a chance. Denver ranks top five in short passing volume, so Stidham should be able to stand and deliver, and the Broncos should be able to run the ball some and maybe even break some long outside runs. The matchup tells us Denver has some real advantages. And this line is all wrong. Bo Nix represented floor for the Broncos, not ceiling. But what if that great offensive line and Sean Payton's coaching staff were just as responsible for the floor? Might Stidham slot right in without a huge dropoff? This spread was listed as Broncos -1.5 before last weekend but reopened at Patriots -5.5, which means the Nix injury swung the line a full seven points. That's down to six now but it's still far too high. I've seen book makers suggest about four points, and I'd make it more like two or three, but six or seven is absurd, closer to what someone like Josh Allen or Patrick Mahomes is worth. The truth is that we don't know a ton about Stidham after four career starts, though he did drop 365 yards and three scores in his debut as a 10-point underdog against the No. 1 defense 49ers in an overtime loss. It's worth noting, though, that quarterbacks making their first start of the season in the playoffs are an ugly 1-7 SU since 1950, and that one win was by Frank Reich in a game he trailed 35-3. It will be tough for the Broncos to win — but they have a great chance to cover this inflated line. Home playoff dogs of four or more points are 5-0 ATS over the last two decades, covering by 8.0 PPG. They lost three of those games in one-score hearbreakers, but they've been competitive in every game. Sean Payton also has a great history with backup quarterbacks at 14-7 ATS, including 12-9 SU, and those numbers get even better when you filter out some meaningless last-week-of-season games. It's almost always a good idea to bet on the 1-seed in the Conference Championship. They're 21-5 SU since 2006, including 12-3 against 2-seeds and an impressive 5-1 as anything worse than a field goal favorite, with an average margin of +10.0 PPG. This line is just all wrong. New England should not be favored by anywhere near this much on the road in a tough environment in such a big spot, and the Broncos should never have been downgraded this far from Nix to Stidham. Grab Broncos +5.5 (DraftKings) or best number you can find above the key number. I think the Patriots win a squeaker, but if you do think Denver wins, you should consider playing more aggressively than a simple +210 moneyline. That's barely worth the squeeze, and do you really want Stidham having to win a close one late against Maye? If you like Denver to win, you probably need a more comfortable game script, with Denver's defense dominating, maybe even creating a couple big turnovers or a defensive score. Skip the moneyline and try something a bit more aggressive, something like Broncos -5.5 at +350 or Broncos -9.5 at +630 (FanDuel).

Adding tiny so you can see the pick logic and get 4.5 before it’s gone: These are two teams I haven't totally believed in all year — neither one has cracked the top seven of my power ratings all season — yet here we are in the AFC Championship Game, and none of that strength of schedule mumbo jumbo matters much anymore. I put Denver on fraud watch last week and loaded up on Buffalo stock, but the Broncos got the W. Did that prove us wrong, though? Hard to say. The Broncos needed five turnovers and about seven straight 50/50 calls to eke out a lucky win in overtime as home favorites, so was that really all that convincing? New England hasn't felt particularly overwhelming yet either. It feels more like the Patriots let both playoff opponents so far beat themselves, certainly a sound enough strategy when it works. And maybe it will a third straight week, now that the Patriots have lucked into Jarrett Stidham! By season-long numbers, the weak link on the field is New England's defense, which ranked 25th by DVOA for the season, bottom quarter of the league. Denver's offense actually leapt to the top quarter over the final third of the season — but that was with Bo Nix, of course. New England's offense had great metrics during the season but has been underwhelming at best in the playoffs, and Denver's much-ballyhooed defense has faded mightily down the stretch, too. The Patriots faced only one top-five defense the entire regular season but will now face their third in three weeks in the postseason. That one regular season matchup came against the Browns, and New England had only one drive over seven plays. The Patriots did find points with some explosive plays and short-field scores after turnovers, and that's what the Patriots offense has looked like in the playoffs. But will that work against Denver? New England leads the league in deep passing EPA and explosives, including almost 20% of its passing plays, but Denver's defense was best in the league limiting explosive plays this season at just 8%. That's once every eight plays the Patriots would typically expect a chunk play that this Broncos defense might take away, and Drake Maye's offense has not shown an ability to go on long sustained drives these playoffs. Denver's run defense matches up well too, shutting down outside runs and funneling the run inside. Buffalo exploited that with a power rushing attack, but New England has not run well inside and may not get its outside explosives. The Patriots offensive line has also struggled in these playoffs. Rookie Will Campbell ranks just 87th of 98 tackles in pressure rate allowed since returning from injury, and he and fellow rookie Jared Wilson leave the left side of the line quite vulnerable against Nik Bonitto and a Broncos defensive front that led the league in pressures this season. New England also ranks below average in red zone offense and dead last defensively, while Denver ranks top five in both areas. Red zone is invariably tiny sample, but if those trends hold up, that could mean seven turning into three a time or two, and that can swing a game. What about New England's defense? The Patriots have looked pretty good on that end in the playoffs, but this is probably a sell-high spot for tha tunit. Teams that allow 16 points or less in both playoff games heading into the Conference Championship are 0-6 SU. New England's defense has lived a charmed life against terrible Texans and Chargers offensive lines, both maybe bottom five in the entire league. Denver's offensive line will be like going from rookie to all-Pro on Madden, since the Broncos are a top three unit. Defense gets much harder when you're not dominating the trenches, and New England's pass rush has been unreliable for most of the season. Its run defense has also cratered down the stretch, though the return of Milton Williams has helped. If Denver can dominate the trenches, the Broncos have a real chance. In particular, that outstanding offensive line can give Jarrett Stidham a chance. Denver ranks top five in short passing volume, so Stidham should be able to stand and deliver, and the Broncos should be able to run the ball some and maybe even break some long outside runs. The matchup tells us Denver has some real advantages. And this line is all wrong. Bo Nix represented floor for the Broncos, not ceiling. But what if that great offensive line and Sean Payton's coaching staff were just as responsible for the floor? Might Stidham slot right in without a huge dropoff? This spread was listed as Broncos -1.5 before last weekend but reopened at Patriots -5.5, which means the Nix injury swung the line a full seven points. That's down to six now but it's still far too high. I've seen book makers suggest about four points, and I'd make it more like two or three, but six or seven is absurd, closer to what someone like Josh Allen or Patrick Mahomes is worth. The truth is that we don't know a ton about Stidham after four career starts, though he did drop 365 yards and three scores in his debut as a 10-point underdog against the No. 1 defense 49ers in an overtime loss. It's worth noting, though, that quarterbacks making their first start of the season in the playoffs are an ugly 1-7 SU since 1950, and that one win was by Frank Reich in a game he trailed 35-3. It will be tough for the Broncos to win — but they have a great chance to cover this inflated line. Home playoff dogs of four or more points are 5-0 ATS over the last two decades, covering by 8.0 PPG. They lost three of those games in one-score hearbreakers, but they've been competitive in every game. Sean Payton also has a great history with backup quarterbacks at 14-7 ATS, including 12-9 SU, and those numbers get even better when you filter out some meaningless last-week-of-season games. It's almost always a good idea to bet on the 1-seed in the Conference Championship. They're 21-5 SU since 2006, including 12-3 against 2-seeds and an impressive 5-1 as anything worse than a field goal favorite, with an average margin of +10.0 PPG. This line is just all wrong. New England should not be favored by anywhere near this much on the road in a tough environment in such a big spot, and the Broncos should never have been downgraded this far from Nix to Stidham. Grab Broncos +5.5 (DraftKings) or best number you can find above the key number. I think the Patriots win a squeaker, but if you do think Denver wins, you should consider playing more aggressively than a simple +210 moneyline. That's barely worth the squeeze, and do you really want Stidham having to win a close one late against Maye? If you like Denver to win, you probably need a more comfortable game script, with Denver's defense dominating, maybe even creating a couple big turnovers or a defensive score. Skip the moneyline and try something a bit more aggressive, something like Broncos -5.5 at +350 or Broncos -9.5 at +630 (FanDuel).

Longer logic to follow, but Dobbins just announced out so get these lines before they move up.

Longer logic to follow, but Dobbins just announced out so get these lines before they move up.

It's tough to learn a ton from Stidham's four regular season starts, but one big difference from Nix will likely be his sack avoidance. Stidham was sacked 13 times in his four starts, while Nix was sacked about once a game this season and does a great job limiting mistakes. Stidham can scramble some, but consistent trend you see in his starts is a ton of passes to running backs as a way to combat that pressure. In his two Denver starts, 21 of Stidham's 66 passes went to a running back, nearly one-third of them! He targeted RBs on eight of his preseason passes this season too in about one game worth of action. New England's defense ranked bottom five in fantasy points allowed to RBs this season but top five in RB receptions allowed. Twelve times this season a RB caught at least three passes against the Patriots, including seven times with at least five catches. That means it's time to invest in Denver rookie RB R.J. Harvey, especially with J.K. Dobbins out at least one more game. Harvey caught five passes last week for 46 yards on six targets, continuing an upward trend. He's seen at least four targets in six of his last seven games with 3+ catches in five of those and now 11-of-18 games on the season. In those 11 games with 3+ receptions, Harvey has at least 14 receiving yards every game and at least 18 in all but one, so play Harvey to go over 17.5 receiving yards at bet365. He's averaging 33 YPG in those 11 games, so play 30+ yards at +230, and take the escalator to 40+ yards at +450 (both bet365), a number he's hit in 36% of his games with at least three catches, including last week against Buffalo.

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Tailing @The_Oddsmaker

Tailing @The_Oddsmaker

Chaisson has cleared this in both playoff games so far, largely because he’s racked up sacks. He had one last week and two against the Chargers in the Wild Card round. However, the Broncos have been the 4th toughest matchup for edge rushers, largely due to Bo Nix being one of the hardest QBs to take down. Denver has allowed the 3rd lowest pressure rate, which is mostly an offensive line stat, as they have one of the better OLs in the league. On top of that, Nix posted the 2nd lowest pressure-to-sack rate on the season, which is much more of a QB-driven metric. Jarrett Stidham is more likely to be around league average in that area, with a career pressure-to-sack rate of 19.6%. My tackle and sack model does factor in that increase in expected sack rate against Stidham compared to Nix, but I’m still expecting this OL to make it difficult to generate consistent pressure. As a result, I’m only projecting Chaisson with around a 40% chance to record a sack here. That’s critical at this number, because he’s only cleared 2.5 tackles in 3 of the 9 games where he failed to get a sack. Even when he does get a sack, it hasn’t guaranteed he clears this number. He’s still stayed under 2.5 in 5 of the 9 games where he recorded a sack. In the two games where he had multiple sacks, he finished with exactly 3 tackles in each. If he had only one sack in those games, he would have stayed under. That really highlights how often Chaisson sits under this number, even in strong sack performances. The reason is simple. He isn’t very involved in run defense, as he’s only mixed in on 7% of run plays with a tackle. That gives him roughly 1.3 projected run tackles. Even if I give him a full sack in the projection, he still comes in under 2.5. He has mixed in on six tackles on receptions all season, but even factoring in the small chance he gets one here, that can easily be offset by him failing to record a sack. All of this leads my tackle model to give Chaisson around a 60% chance to stay under 2.5, and I’m surprised we’re getting this at +119.

Running this back after it lost by 0.5 last week, with the final dagger being the 32-yard catch by Boutte against Derek Stingley in coverage on a great throw by Maye. The same logic remains from last week. While I do expect the Maye–Boutte connection to continue operating above a league-average catch rate on downfield passes, he’s still due for at least some regression after posting a league-high +21% catch rate over expected, according to NextGenStats. There’s also a decent chance he lines up across from shutdown corner Pat Surtain II, and the two have exchanged some public comments that at least qualify as mild bulletin-board material. Even if it stays tame, that matchup alone could make it tougher for Boutte to draw targets. On top of that, Mack Hollins has a decent chance to return this week. His return shouldn’t impact Boutte’s playing time much, but it could siphon off some of the downfield targets Boutte has seen at a higher rate since Hollins went down. Diggs and Henry are also coming off down games, and I’m projecting both to see an uptick in target rate this week, which makes it tougher for Boutte to draw 5 targets again like he did last week. I’m still not interested in fading his yardage prop. When he does haul in passes, he makes them count. But I have him projected closer to 2.2 receptions, with around a 62% chance to stay under 2.5.

Denver plays a ton of man coverage (4th Most) which Maye has been elite against. Drake Maye vs Man: 📈 YPA: 8.83 —> 9.63 📈 Passer Rating: 111.4 —> 133.2 (leads NFL) 📈 Deep Throw%: 12.8% —> 14.8% He’s cleared this number in 10/L14 games & in 6/8 on the road. In games Kayshon Boutte is healthy he’s hit this in 9/L11. The media asked if he’s thrown in altitude before & he made this comment: “It’ll be pretty cool, get a few extra yards on a deep ball…can always use that.” He also said this when asked about if anything changes on being aggressive downfield going against an elite pass rush: “No I don’t think so…taking care of the football is the number 1 thing, so if we have time and have a look downfield, you know me, I’m going to take a look and take a shot.” DEN is a great defense but are more prone to deep balls, allowing the 2nd highest deep throw rate on the season (13.6%).

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Will have full write up in my game preview

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Added some Denver 1Q. Talked about on championship podcast. Out in a bit.

#RLM

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Championship Round Hot Read! 🔥 Playing now at 5.5 with line starting to fade. Can add more if it ends up getting to 6+ later https://www.actionnetwork.com/nfl/afc-nfc-championship-predictions-picks-for-patriots-vs-broncos-rams-vs-seahawks