Patrick Mahomes Props: How to Bet Chiefs QB’s Passing Odds vs. Chargers on Thursday Night Football
Photo by Jamie Squire/Getty Images. Pictured: Patrick Mahomes #15 of the Kansas City Chiefs
Chiefs vs. Chargers Odds
|Time||8:20 p.m. ET|
The Kansas City Chiefs travel to Southern California to take on the Los Angeles Chargers in a game that has massive AFC playoff picture implications.
The winner of this game will take control of the AFC West. And, of course, a division title guarantees at least one home playoff game.
A Chiefs win would also vault them, at least temporarily, into the No. 1 seed in the AFC.
A Chargers win means they only need to beat the Texans, Broncos and Raiders to lock down a No. 1, No. 2 or No. 3 seed.
The public is absolutely hammering the Chiefs’ spread at -3.5. They’ve also wagered a lot of money on these Patrick Mahomes props below.
Patrick Mahomes Most Valuable Passing Player Props
- Passing yards over: 281.5, -115 (DraftKings)
- Passing yards under: 290.5, -115 (BetRivers)
- Passing touchdowns over: 1.5, -213 (FoxBET) OR over 2.5, +168 (FanDuel)
- Passing touchdowns under: 2.5, -190 (BetRivers)
- Pass attempts over: 36.5, -125 (BetMGM)
- Pass attempts under: 37.5, -108 (BetRivers)
- Pass completions over: 25.5, -130 (BetMGM) OR 26.5, +100 (PointsBet)
- Pass completions under: 26.5, -121 (BetRivers)
- Interceptions over: 0.5, +120 (PointsBet, FanDuel)
- Interceptions under: 0.5, -160 (PointsBet, FanDuel)
Mahomes has thrown for more than 281.5 yards in just four of his 13 games this season, which implies that those odds should be somewhere closer to +225. There’s great value on BetRivers’ under 290.5 passing yards as a result. The implied odds on the under should be closer to -225.
The 2018 NFL MVP has thrown for fewer than three touchdown passes in eight of 13 games this season, which implies that the under for his passing TDs line should be somewhere around -160. At -190, the under there is a pass for me.
Meanwhile, Mahomes has thrown for two or more TDs in just two of his last seven games. While this contest could be a shootout, there isn’t much value on his over passing TDs line, either.
Touchdown props are contingent on so much variability that they’re not typically worth it, though there is an insane amount of value on Austin Ekeler’s touchdown prop this week, as indicated in this story below.
Meanwhile, Mahomes has thrown a pick in nine out of 13 games this season. He’s going up against the No. 9 ranked pass defense in the NFL, according to Football Outsiders’ DVOA. While interception props have similar variability, there could be some edge on Mahomes’ over 0.5 interceptions prop at its current price.