Thursday NFL Player Props: Ekeler, Hill, Kelce Highlight Most Popular Chiefs-Chargers Bets

Thursday NFL Player Props: Ekeler, Hill, Kelce Highlight Most Popular Chiefs-Chargers Bets article feature image

Katelyn Mulcahy/Getty Images. Pictured: Chargers RB Austin Ekeler

  • NFL player prop bettors are banking on big nights from the usual suspects on Thursday Night Football -- Austin Ekeler, Travis Kelce and Tyreek Hill.
  • It's no surprise, given the high total, that bettors would flock to three offensive superstars in Chiefs-Chargers.

Chiefs vs. Chargers Odds

Chiefs Odds-3
Chargers Odds+3
Time8:20 p.m. ET
Odds via DraftKings. Get up-to-the-minute NFL odds here.

The public is riding the Chiefs' spread in this contest, but the player with the most popular prop belongs to the Chargers.

Bettors are most confident that Los Angeles running back Austin Ekeler scores a touchdown in this Thursday Night Football contest.

Chiefs vs. Chargers Most Popular Player Props

  1. Austin Ekeler to score a touchdown at any time (-150)
  2. Tyreek Hill to score a touchdown at any time (-135)
  3. Travis Kelce to score a touchdown at any time (-115)

The above odds and data are according to PointsBet

Ekeler has scored a touchdown in 10 out of 13 games this season. That implies these odds should be somewhere closer to -335, meaning you're potentially getting 55% more value than you should be.

The fifth-year running back has scored in each of his last five contests, including four TDs against the Pittsburgh Steelers in late November.

Ekeler has gotten into the end zone against a variety of defenses, too — everywhere from the sixth- and seventh-best run defenses in the NFL to the 27th- and 30th-best.

The only games in which he's failed to score were against the Baltimore Ravens (No. 4 ranked in DVOA against the run), Philadelphia Eagles (No. 15) and Dallas Cowboys (No. 19).

He's done so against:

  • New England (No. 6 against the run)
  • Washington (No. 7)
  • Cincinnati (No. 10)
  • Cleveland (No. 11)
  • Las Vegas (No. 16)
  • Kansas City (No. 19)
  • Denver (No. 25)
  • Minnesota (No. 26)
  • New York Giants (No. 27)
  • Pittsburgh (No. 30)

Generally, these touchdown props are incredibly variable and seldom have great value, but this one may be too solid to pass up.

The Chiefs rank No. 20 against the run and No. 17 overall, but those numbers are skewed due to a terrible September and October. The defense has improved precipitously since then.

Still, this game has the making of a shootout, and Chargers quarterback Justin Herbert tries to find Ekeler in the open field. The running back is averaging about six targets per game this season, good for third on the team.

A note here that while Ekeler is listed as questionable with an injury he suffered against the Giants, he practiced on Tuesday and Wednesday and is on track to play.

The other two props involving Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce simply don't have the same value that this Ekeler prop does. Both Hill and Kelce have only scored  TDs in five of 13 games this season, which implies the odds should be somewhere closer to +160.

Plus, receivers' TD props should typically be a stay-away as it is.

Roll with Ekeler at strong value and see where the chips fall.

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