Dolphins vs. Patriots Odds, Spread: Miami Makes Betting History Upsetting New England in Week 17
Photo by Billie Weiss/Getty Images. Pictured: Ryan Fitzpatrick #14 of the Miami Dolphins reacts with teammates
- The New England Patriots have lost to the Miami Dolphins as 17.5-point favorites in Week 17.
- We use historical NFL betting data to examine the magnitude of such a massive upset.
The New England Patriots have lost to the Miami Dolphins in one of the biggest upsets in NFL history.
New England, which closed as a 17.5-point favorite against Miami, had a 24-20 lead late in the fourth quarter, but then FitzMagic happened. The Dolphins quarterback led a game-winning touchdown drive, capped off by a five-yard touchdown strike to Mike Gesicki to put the Fins on top for good.
Tom Brady and Bill Belichick losing a game in this fashion at home is surprising enough before you consider the massive point spread.
According to our Bet Labs software, which tracks NFL betting data since the start of the 2003 season, the Patriots had closed as favorites of at least 17.5 points four times over that span and won each of those matchups by an average of 19 points.
In total, six teams since 2003 closed as favorites of at least -17.5 since 2003 and each won the game straight up.
The largest favorite to lose prior to today’s upset occurred on Sept. 23, 2018 when the Minnesota Vikings lost to the Arizona Cardinals after closing at -16.5.
In fact, the biggest upset the Patriots have ever suffered according to the closing spread was a 20-18 loss to the Arizona Cardinals on on Sept. 16, 2012, when they closed as 13-point favorites.
Over the past 17 seasons, the Patriots are 54-6 straight up as double-digit favorites, winning those games by an average margin of 14.4 points.