The Pittsburgh Steelers (6-6) and Baltimore Ravens (6-6) meet in NFL Week 14 today. Kickoff is set for 1 p.m. ET from M&T Bank Stadium in Baltimore, Md. Steelers vs Ravens will broadcast live on CBS.
The Ravens are 5.5-point favorites on the spread (Ravens -5.5; -115), with the over/under set at 43. Baltimore is a -275 moneyline favorite; Pittsburgh is a +220 underdog.
Let's get into my Steelers vs Ravens prediction for today's AFC North clash.
Steelers vs Ravens Prediction, Pick
- Steelers vs Ravens pick: Steelers +6 (-110)
My Steelers vs Ravens best bet is on Pittsburgh to cover the spread. Find the best odds by checking our live NFL odds page.
Steelers vs Ravens Odds
| Steelers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+5.5 -105 | 43 -110o / -110u | +220 |
| Ravens Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-5.5 -115 | 43 -110o / -110u | -275 |
Steelers vs Ravens Preview
This is mainly a play on the fact that I don’t think the Ravens are nearly as good as they used to be, or at least, far worse than I expected coming into the season. I've had to downgrade them significantly since then.
The Steelers are mediocre, as usual, but in this kind of environment — everyone calling for Mike Tomlin’s job, Ben Roethlisberger making public comments — I expect Pittsburgh to show up.
It’s a division game, and now you're talking about a six-point spread for a Ravens team that has plenty of issues.
Isaiah Likely fumbled at the goal line last week, but even so, Baltimore should be scoring more than 21 points against Cincinnati. The red-zone problems remain.
Baltimore is going to use heavy tight-end sets, which isn’t ideal for Pittsburgh because that’s how teams have attacked them. But you’re also looking at a game with a total of 42.5, outdoors, in cold weather. Both teams use heavy personnel, and that usually keeps scoring down.
The Steelers have looked ugly most of the year, but in a game like this, they should be able to move the ball via short passing with Aaron Rodgers.
The Ravens’ explosive plays just aren’t there. They lack outside threats; if Zay Flowers isn’t having a big game, there’s nothing else. And Baltimore doesn’t generate consistent pressure.
The Steelers have been using a sixth offensive lineman; then Broderick Jones got hurt, they went to Buffalo and did nothing, but I think they’ll try to protect, play heavy, and slow the game down against Baltimore.
The Ravens have also blown leads this season so six points just seems like to many for them. This matchup historically plays close; 26 of the 32 regular-season meetings between John Harbaugh and Tomlin have been decided by one score.
When either coach is a 3+ point underdog, the underdog is 19-3-3 against the spread (86.4%). The under in those matchups is 20-13-1.
The Steelers offense, however, is in rough shape. Rodgers is at -13.6 CPOE since Week 10, dead last among 38 quarterbacks, even with a low aDOT.
The Steelers haven’t completed a pass of 20+ yards in a month. Their receivers aren’t getting separation; Rodgers has to operate out of shotgun the entire game. There’s no ball control.
The Ravens offense is also broken. Lamar Jackson still isn’t fully healthy, by his own admission, dealing with toe, knee and hamstring issues. Since Week 10, when he isn’t pressured, his catchable-ball rate is 77%, which is 30th out of 31 quarterbacks. Through Week 9, it was 89%.
Jackson's on-target rate when not pressured is 65%, 29th among qualified quarterbacks. His mechanics look impacted and the offensive line hasn’t helped.
There is a chance Jackson eventually gets healthy and the offense pops, which is the only thing that would scare me. But Pittsburgh historically contains him on the ground, and if he’s trying to extend plays in this matchup, that favors the Steelers.
Pittsburgh is also dealing with injuries — Joey Porter Jr. might miss this one — while the Ravens’ run defense has been solid lately, basically top five since Week 10.
The Steelers’ run defense is terrible, and this could be a Derrick Henry game. Last week, the Bills ran the same run concept 29 times against Pittsburgh, and it worked every single time.
Steelers vs Ravens Prediction, Betting Analysis
It’s not that I have full trust in the Steelers, but it’s that I have no faith in the Ravens to win this game with this much margin. They might jump ahead, but we’ve seen them let teams back in games repeatedly.
In this particular rivalry, games almost always finish close, and the trends overwhelmingly favor the underdog.
Under Tomlin and Harbaugh, the underdog in this matchup is 24-7 ATS (77%). Blindly betting the 'dog in every one of these games would have produced a 45% ROI.
Given the low total, the Ravens' offensive struggles, and their inability to separate on the scoreboard, I’ll take the Steelers.
Pick: Steelers +6 (-110)
Steelers vs Ravens Against the Spread Prediction
My Ravens vs Steelers betting prediction is on the Steelers to cover the spread.
Moneyline
I have no bet for either moneyline.
Over/Under
I have no bet for the game total.
Steelers vs Ravens Betting Trends
Steelers vs Ravens Viewing Info: Channel, Start Time, Streaming
| Location: | M&T Bank Stadium in Baltimore, Md |
| Date: | Sunday, Dec. 7 |
| Time: | 1 p.m. ET |
| TV / Streaming Options: | CBS |
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