The Los Angeles Chargers and Houston Texans will face off in Week 1 of the NFL preseason tonight. Kickoff is set for 8:00 p.m. ET from Reliant Stadium in Houston, Texas. The game will broadcast live on NFL+.
The Texans are 1.5-point favorites over the Chargers on the spread (Texans -1.5), with the over/under set at 36.5 total points. Houston is listed as a -118 favorite to win outright on the moneyline, while Los Angeles is a +100 underdog to pull off the upset.
Let's get into my Chargers vs Texans predictions and NFL picks for Thursday, August 13.
My Chargers vs Texans Prediction
- Chargers vs Texans pick: Chargers +1.5 (-115)
My Chargers vs Texans best bet is on Los Angeles to cover the spread (+1.5), with the best price currently available at FanDuel. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live NFL odds page.
Chargers vs Texans Odds
| Chargers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -115 | 36.5 -110o / -110u | +100 |
| Texans Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 -105 | 36.5 -110o / -110u | -118 |
Chargers vs Texans Preseason Preview
Los Angeles Chargers Betting Preview: Coaching & Motivation
The Los Angeles Chargers are the stereotypical prototype for our Bet Labs system titled, "Preseason Pedigree Underdogs."
Last year, the Chargers were absolutely decimated by offensive line injuries, yet they still managed to punch their ticket to the postseason with an 11-6 record before getting bounced 16-3 by the Patriots in the opening round.
Hitting that 11-win mark proves the Bolts have a winning culture under head coach Jim Harbaugh, but falling short of "elite" status keeps them undervalued in the preseason market — and keeps them in play for our preseason betting system.
The Chargers are entering Year 2 under Harbaugh, a coach who immediately instilled a hard-nosed, winning pedigree upon arrival. Furthermore, this will also be the team's first live action with Mike McDaniel calling the plays as offensive coordinator.
You can bet the coaching staff will want to make a strong, disciplined first impression to set the tone for the year.
According to our Action PRO Signals, the smart money is already coming in on Los Angeles. While the Chargers are only commanding 47% of the total tickets, they are taking 72% of the money ahead of this matchup.
Preseason outcomes are often decided by who is taking snaps in the second half. Harbaugh has already announced that Justin Herbert and roughly 15 key starters will sit this one out, but their backup situation is really solid.
Trey Lance is expected to get the start. While the former 2021 third-overall pick hasn't lived up to his draft billing, he is entering his fifth year in the league and has seen real NFL action (six career starts, 2-4 record, 5 TDs, 5 INTs).
Preseason defenses should be a massive step down in difficulty for him, offering a breath of fresh air and an environment where he can find early success.
DJ Uiagalelei will take over from there. After a rollercoaster college career featuring stops at Clemson, Oregon State, and Florida State, he caught on with the Chargers' practice squad last season. In three preseason appearances last year, he completed 54.3% of his passes with two touchdowns and one interception.
No matter how you slice it, having a player with his physical tools as your third-stringer gives Los Angeles a nice depth advantage at QB.
Houston Texans Betting Preview: Expect a Late-Game Drop-Off
On the other side of the script, the Houston Texans actually had a bit too much success last year to fit our system. They posted a 12-5 record, defeated the Steelers in the Wild Card Round, and ultimately fell 28-16 to the Patriots in the Divisional Round.
Historically, the Texans aren't a franchise accustomed to winning at that clip. Last year tied their franchise record for regular-season wins, and the Divisional Round remains the furthest they have ever advanced.
Because of this, the organization's public perception is currently at an all-time high. It seems reasonable to expect them to rest on their laurels and come out a bit complacent in their first exhibition game.
Davis Mills is slated to start for Houston. Mills is pretty seasoned with 29 career starts (8-19-1 record) under his belt over five years.
However, the Texans know exactly what they are getting when they put Mills in the game. Because of his seasoned status, the Texans are less incentivized to leave him on the field for more than a quarter or two.
Once Mills exits the game, the offense belongs to Graham Mertz, a second-year, sixth-round pick out of Florida.
In last year's preseason, Mertz's only NFL experience consisted of completing 23-of-32 passes for one touchdown and three interceptions.
Mertz will likely be the man under center for Houston during crunch time on Thursday, and that's when we expect the wheels to fall off for the Texans' offense.
Chargers vs Texans Prediction, Betting Analysis
When handicapping the NFL preseason, throwing standard regular-season logic out the window is often the first step to turning a profit.
Exhibition games aren't about who has the better top-end talent; they are about roster depth, coaching stability, and situational motivation.
That brings us to our Bet Labs system titled "NFL Preseason: Pedigree Underdogs."
This system targets a specific profile: teams that won between nine and 11 games the previous year, inherently possessing a winning culture and coaching stability, but entering preseason games as slight underdogs.
The theory isolates market inefficiencies where public perception — and the betting line — fails to account for a team's depth and preparedness.
By backing these "pedigree 'dogs" against the spread, we capture their edge in late-game execution and overall roster depth, which results in steady profit against the inherent unpredictability of the preseason.
In a setting where development and roster evaluation take precedence over winning, we have to look for angles based on depth and motivation.
The Chargers have a coaching staff eager to establish a rhythm under new offensive coordinator Mike McDaniel, a quarterback in Trey Lance hungry to prove he belongs in the league, and a pretty competent third-stringer to finish the game.
Meanwhile, the Texans are fighting the natural complacency of a peak season and will be handing over the end of the game to a mistake-prone developmental quarterback.
Trust the sharp money, trust the system, and take the points with the deeper, more motivated roster.
Pick: Chargers +1.5 (-115)
