The second week of the NFL season is upon us, and I'm back again with my weekly player props piece. Last season, I went 39-27 (59.1%) and 42-19 (68.9%) in 2024 for an overall success rate of 63.8% on my weekly props pieces.
Let's get into my NFL player props for Week 2, including picks for Steelers vs Patriots, Seahawks vs Cardinals, and Dolphins vs 49ers.
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NFL Player Props — Week 2
- Aaron Rodgers Under 0.5 Interceptions (-135 at bet365; -139 at DraftKings; -141 Caesars)
- Jeremiyah Love Longest Rush Under 11.5 Yards (-109 at DraftKings)
- Christian McCaffrey Under 43.5 Receiving Yards (-115 at bet365)
Steelers vs Patriots Player Prop: Aaron Rodgers Interceptions
I'm pretty shocked at this price given Rodgers hasn't been an interception machine at all in his career, even recently.
Since he joined the Steelers, Rodgers has seven interceptions in 17 games, for a rate of 0.41 per game, throwing just 14 turnover-worthy plays (TWPs) in that time, which equates to pretty neutral interception luck since just north of 50% of TWPs are picked.
That jives with my model, as he has a -0.18 per-game "gift" average compared to league average, so when he throws defended passes, they are ones that are still difficult to be picked, showing his elite ball placement.
His matchup against New England is solid too. Last year the Patriots had 10 picks in 17 regular season games. Yes, they had four against Stroud in a playoff game, but it was clear Stroud was totally rattled in cold conditions.
Overall, the Patriots ranked as a slightly below-average defense in passes defended and interceptions, and so far in 2026 they haven't shown anything to make me think much differently.
My Luck Rankings Dashboard is showing Rodgers with a projected 0.44 interceptions and just a 35.7% chance of having one. That means this is good to around -180, but to be safe, I'd play this to just -150.
Pick: Aaron Rodgers Under 0.5 Interceptions (-135)
Seahawks vs Cardinals Player Prop: Jeremiyah Love Rush Yards
In his NFL debut, Love had 11 carries for 41 yards with a long of 18 yards. That means, outside of that carry, he averaged 2.3 yards per carry against the Chargers, who were an explosive play machine against opposing RBs last year, ranking 25th in stopping explosive runs to running backs.
Now he faces a Seahawks defense that dominates on the ground, ranking first last year. Yes, they allowed Rhamondre Stevenson to hit a long of 12 yards, but it took him 18 attempts to do so.
Love is a fantastic talent, but the attempts likely aren't going to be there, as he had 11 in a heavily leading game script in Week 1. Despite Drew Lock being at QB for the Seahawks, I think this will be a more neutral-to-Seahawks-leading script, and it's reflected in Love's rushing attempt line as books have him at 10.5 attempts, heavily juiced to the under.
Yes, I know Ty Okada is out, and Nick Emmanwori is questionable, but they were the same status in Week 1 and Seattle shut down Rhamondre Stevenson on what projects to be around eight more carries than Love should have.
I'd play this to -130 or so.
Picks: Jeremiyah Love Longest Rush Under 11.5 Yards (-109 at DraftKings)
Dolphins vs 49ers Player Prop: Christian McCaffrey Receiving Yards
When the 49ers are 9.5-point favorites or more (within a half point of a field goal plus a touchdown), McCaffrey has an average of 37.5 receiving yards, but a median of just 30.5 in twelve games on 4.8 targets per game. In those twelve games, he cleared 40.5 yards just four times, but in each of those four he went for more than 65 yards.
Trim that to 12.5-point favorites (within a half point of a touchdown plus two field goals) and he averages 35.9 yards with a median of just 27 on 4.0 targets across seven games.
Miami got gashed by Ashton Jeanty last week, but that was in a game with no Brock Bowers in a game that was close partway through the third quarter.
San Francisco has so many more weapons and projects to be in a bigger blowout that there's enough opportunity to spread the ball around here that McCaffrey's receiving volume probably isn't going to be massive. After all, as I mentioned above, he's averaged just four targets in heavily favored games.
I'm projecting a median in the mid 30s, but there's always a chance CMC has a 70+ yard receiving game like he's done in two of the seven games he's played as a 49er as a super-heavy favorite. However, those were the only two heavily favored games he cleared 40.5 receiving yards as a 49er.
Based on his splits, he's likely to stay under, but if he clears it, you could do worse than throwing a sprinkle on 60+ or 70+ alt receiving yards.
Picks: Christian McCaffrey Under 43.5 Rec Yards (-115 at DraftKings)
Dr Nick's Week 2 Prop Bets
- Aaron Rodgers Under 0.5 Interceptions (-130 at bet365)
- Jeremiyah Love Longest Rush Under 11.5 Yards (-109 at DraftKings)
- Christian McCaffrey Under 43.5 Receiving Yards (-115 at bet365)
