Commanders vs Colts Predictions, Picks, Odds

If you want more Action Network content, be sure to add us as a preferred source on Google.

The NFL regular season enters Week 4, featuring a slate of matchups that carry intrigue not just on the field, but across prediction markets as well.

The showdown between the Commanders and the Colts presents several compelling dynamics. First, it will be played overseas at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium in London. Crucially, both franchises enter this international clash on equal footing at 1-2 on the season, making this fourth game pivotal in shaping their trajectories and playoff aspirations.

Let's get into my Colts vs. Commanders prediction and my NFL pick for Week 4. Be sure to download the Action Network app for more picks and analysis.

PREDICTION

The Washington Commanders managed to snap a losing streak by securing their first victory of the season last week against the Seahawks (33-31). Offensively, they have maintained solid production, averaging 25.0 points per game, but the defense has struggled significantly, surrendering over 30 points per game through the opening campaign.

The Indianapolis Colts are also riding momentum after picking up their first win of the year in Week 3 against the Houston Texans (19-17). The Colts have been locked in tight contests, relying heavily on a ground attack led by Jonathan Taylor, though their secondary has also shown vulnerabilities by giving up substantial passing yards per game.

If the Colts make the right calls in the first half and lean on Taylor to break down the Commanders, they'll have half the game in the bag. Backing the favorite seems like the correct choice here.

TOTAL

Kalshi traders appear to be leaning toward a high-scoring affair, which makes total sense given both franchises' recent performances.

The main catalyst lies in the glaring defensive vulnerabilities on both sides. Washington is surrendering over 30 points per game, ranking near the bottom of the NFL in defensive efficiency. Meanwhile, the Indianapolis defense is also giving up more than 30 points per contest, conceding significant passing yards week in and week out.

The Colts average 24.0 points per game, powered by Jonathan Taylor, who is well-positioned to carve up Washington’s fragile defensive front to sustain long, effective drives in the red zone.

On the other side, the Commanders maintain an offensive average of 25.0 points per game. Armed with perimeter weapons like Terry McLaurin and Stefon Diggs, they have the tools to exploit a Colts secondary that remains vulnerable to the deep ball.

My Pick: Colts on the moneyline, Over 49.5 on Totals

• Colts-Commanders Prediction: Colts (63%), Commanders (37%)
• Colts-Commanders Total: Over/Under 47.5

NFL Week 4 Picks

Entering Week 4, Indianapolis leads in the market, with a 65% implied probability according to Kalshi traders. While both teams enter under similar conditions, a few decisive factors tilt the scales.

The major wildcard for the Commanders is the Jayden Daniels factor. Their starting quarterback has been dealing with elbow discomfort. While he traveled with the squad to London and participated in weekly practice on a limited basis, his status remains a game-time decision. Marcus Mariota stands ready should he need to take the helm once again.

Traders appear to be pricing in the starting QB's ailment alongside the Colts' overall roster edge. In this context, the moneyline looks spot on. I think we are looking at a high-scoring game, but one that ultimately lands in the Colts' hands.

Pick: Colts by Over 4.5 points.

Washington Commanders vs. Indianapolis Colts is scheduled for Sunday, October 4, live from Tottenham Hotspur Stadium in London, England. The game is live on NFL Network.