Expert Introduces New Model: Quarterback Interception Luck Rankings
Getty Images. Pictured: Derek Carr.
I looked at every quarterback’s turnover worthy play rate from last season at Pro Football Focus. I then used that to estimate how many interceptions a quarterback “should have” thrown compared to his actual number of INTs.
The larger the number, the more “lucky” that quarterback was, which means they should have thrown more interceptions and are more likely to throw more this season.
Dak Prescott’s 6.21 rating means he was extremely unlucky, and his interception percentage rate should regress this year and he should throw fewer INTs.
Thursday Night Football was a great example of this. Patrick Mahomes threw a pick-six that hit Kadarius Toney right in the hands. That’s a perfect example of a throw that would be considered an unlucky interception.
Below are my ratings from last season. Click here to download the sheet.
Derek Carr is coming off a career-worst 2.8% interception rate last season with the Raiders. He wasn't as bad as that would indicate, though, as I projected him closer to a 2.2% rate that's much closer to a career 2% rate. He was very unlucky when it comes to his interception rate.
Aside from bad luck with interceptions, he was throwing the ball downfield a ton. Carr's 64 pass attempts of 20 or more yards down the field ranked fifth in the NFL. This is notable because downfield throws result in a higher interception rate, as the league average was 7.8% last season. Carr is unlikely to throw the ball downfield as much this season with the Saints, who ranked 21st in the league in passes 20 or more yards down the field.
Carr faces the Titans in Week 1. Tennessee's Achilles heel is its secondary, and its 1.9% interception rate ranked 19th last season.
As a three-point home favorite, Carr will likely be involved in a more conservative game script, one that should help limit the number of dangerous passes he attempts.
I'm projecting Carr for closer to -125 to not throw an interception. It's not quite the lock of the century, but I wanted to introduce this concept to possibly help you handicap quarterbacks' interception props moving forward. These rankings will act as a great piece of data to consult before attacking this market.
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