Saints vs Panthers NFL Week 3 Picks, Prediction

Saints vs Panthers NFL Week 3 Picks, Prediction article feature image

Todd Kirkland/Getty Images. Pictured: Jameis Winston.

  • The Saints are favored on the road against the Panthers.
  • New Orleans is 1-1 and coming off a loss, while Carolina is in search of its first win.
  • Dylan Wilkerson breaks down how he's betting the game below.

Saints vs. Panthers Odds

Sunday, Sept. 25
1 p.m. ET
Saints Odds
-112o / -109u
Panthers Odds
-112o / -109u
Odds via BetRivers. Get up-to-the-minute NFL odds here.

Week 3 brings us a divisional showdown between the New Orleans Saints and the Carolina Panthers.

At this point, the Panthers have displayed unexpected defensive prowess. However, it seems that the tradeoff for lockdown defense is a lackluster offensive presence. Given their offensive woes, the Panthers have been able to keep games close. Throughout the first two games, the Panthers have lost by a total of five points. 

The Saints' performances, on the other hand, are usually a reflection of how Jameis Winston does, which can be sporadic to say the least. In Week 1, they squeaked out a win with the help of Winston’s two touchdown performance. Then there was last week against the Buccaneers, against whom Winston threw three interceptions.

Defensively, the Saints have been unable to apply the pressure needed to force the opposing quarterback to make poor decisions. New Orleans has only one sack through two games.

Generally, these teams have been involved in low-scoring affairs and close games. Let's see if we should expect that trend to continue.

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Saints vs. Panthers Matchup Analysis

Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how the Saints and Panthers match up statistically:

Saints vs. Panthers DVOA Breakdown
Overall DVOA2512
Pass DVOA3012
Rush DVOA524
Overall DVOA2313
Pass DVOA2815
Rush DVOA819

Looking back at Winston’s career, we can see that he can put up explosive numbers one week, before setting an interception record the next. He isn’t solely to blame when his issues come to light, though. The Saints offensive line is allowing a sack on nearly 12% of dropbacks and 17 QB hits so far this season. 

The offensive issues don’t stop there. A lack of discipline could cause the Saints’ offense to stall, as well. The Saints have committed 159 penalty yards on offense, which is the fourth most in the NFL. In addition to this, New Orleans converts on third down at a 30.8% rate, which ranks 25th.

For the Panthers defense, you could randomly pick any advanced stat, and odds are that unit is in the top 10 for that metric. The one that jumps out to me is their pass yards allowed per attempt, which comes in at 4.8 yards. This puts Carolina fourth in the league, and really only it's the tip of the iceberg when it comes to how well this defense is playing.

Neither team here has scored more than seven points in the first half. These offenses take a while to get started, and this could give us a clear edge when deciding how to bet on this game.

Betting Picks

We can expect this 1 p.m. ET game to get off to a slow start.

The Panthers defense has proven that they can stop the pass and apply pressure. On the other hand, I am not confident enough in this Saints’ offense to take them, or any sort of over in a game they are involved in.

I'm taking this first half under, so let’s hope we never see this game on NFL RedZone.

Pick: Saints 1H Team Total Under 10 | Bet to Under 9.5

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