Sam Howell Scouting Report & 2022 NFL Draft Profile

Sam Howell Scouting Report & 2022 NFL Draft Profile article feature image
Credit:

Grant Halverson/Getty Images. Pictured: Sam Howell

Sam Howell NFL Draft Profile

Position
QB
School
North Carolina
Height
6’1″
Weight
225
40-Yard Dash
5.07
2021 Age
21
Class
Junior
Recruit. Stars
4
Projected Round
1

Sam Howell NFL Draft Projections

Wearing the white and powder blue of UNC, Howell looks an awful lot like Mitchell Trubisky: They have similar physiques and even comparable faces. They could be brothers. But they are very different as prospects.

Whereas Trubisky didn’t start for the Tar Heels until his fourth year on campus, Howell earned the No. 1 quarterback job as a true freshman and has started every game of his undergraduate career.

And in crunch time he has played well.

Sam Howell: 94.4 PFF Grade in the 4th quarter since 2019

Highest among all QBs ⏰ pic.twitter.com/NKI893O8pZ

— PFF College (@PFF_College) May 17, 2021

If he enters the 2022 NFL Draft, Howell will be the rare true junior with three full seasons of starting experience, and with a big 2021 season he could find himself selected near the top of the board. He returns to UNC as the No. 2 quarterback in college football (per Pro Football Focus).

Sam Howell Scouting Report

Strengths

  • No. 3 pro-style quarterback recruit in 2019 class.
  • No. 1 in Power Five over past two seasons with 2,654 yards passing on attempts of 20-plus yards (per PFF).
  • Has a strong NFL-caliber arm.
  • Improved accuracy from freshman to sophomore season.

Weaknesses

  • Short (6-foot-1), painfully slow (5.07-second 40-yard dash) and hilariously un-explosive (24.9-inch vertical jump as a recruit).
  • Limited rushing ability (1.0 yards per carry, including sacks).
  • Production schemed open via play action and rollouts.
  • Has antsy feet and can leave the pocket too soon.

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Sam Howell Stats

Passing Production

  • 2020 (12 games): 348-3,586-30-7 passing | 68.1% completion rate
  • 2019 (13 games): 422-3,641-38-7 passing | 61.4% completion rate

Rushing Production

  • 2020 (12 games): 92-146-5 rushing | 1.6 yards per carry
  • 2019 (13 games): 94-35-1 rushing | 0.4 yards per carry

*Includes sacks

Sam Howell & North Carolina Betting Odds

Below are the best odds for various Sam Howell and UNC betting markets as of May 19, 2021. Find reviews of the best online sportsbooks here.

  • Sam Howell to Be No. 1 Pick in 2022 Draft: +350 at BetMGM
  • Sam Howell to Win Heisman Trophy: +1700 at DraftKings
  • North Carolina to Win National Championship: +6000 at FanDuel
  • North Carolina to Win Atlantic Coastal Conference: +1000 at FanDuel
  • North Carolina to Win ACC Coastal Division: +125 at DraftKings

Sam Howell & North Carolina Market Analysis

I have a small position on Howell to be the No. 1 pick in the 2022 NFL Draft, but I bet that at +400.

My first prop bets for the 2022 NFL draft: At BetMGM.

No. 1 pick: All QBs
– S. Rattler: +300, 0.5u
– S. Howell: +400, 0.3u
– T. Shough (misspelled "Slough," LOLz): +6600, 0.2u

Rattler & Howell are chalky options. Shough is an informed longshot.https://t.co/t6Vvaqg4H1

— Matthew Freedman (@MattFtheOracle) May 9, 2021

At +350, I would lay off, especially since that bet was made in coordination with other positions.

Not every quarterback to be selected No. 1 has been a Heisman winner. For instance: Trevor Lawrence (2021), Jared Goff (2016) and Andrew Luck (2012).

But most quarterbacks to go No. 1 in recent history have won the Heisman.

  • Joe Burrow (LSU): 2019 Heisman, 2020 No. 1 pick
  • Kyler Murray (Oklahoma): 2018 Heisman, 2019 No. 1 pick
  • Baker Mayfield (Oklahoma): 2017 Heisman, 2018 No. 1 pick
  • Jameis Winston (Florida State): 2013 Heisman, 2015 No. 1 pick
  • Cam Newton (Auburn): 2010 Heisman, 2011 No. 1 pick

If you think Howell has a good chance to go No. 1, you might want to bet into that idea via his +1700 odds to win the Heisman — because if he actually does win the award, then he will be very live as a candidate for the No. 1 pick.

Of course, if you think Howell might win the Heisman, then there’s a case to be made for UNC to win the national championship at +6000: Of the seven Heisman winners in the College Football Playoff era, all of them but quarterback Lamar Jackson (2016) have been on teams in the final four.

To be clear: I’m not betting on Howell to win the Heisman or UNC to win the national championship. But if you’re bullish on Howell for the 2022 draft, those are bets to consider.

Matthew Freedman is 1,051-849-37 (+92.6 units) overall betting on the NFL. You can follow him in our free app.

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