Seahawks vs Saints Odds, Picks, Prediction
Nic Antaya/Getty Images. Pictured: Geno Smith.
- The surging Seahawks are road underdogs against the Saints.
- Seattle is 2-2 and coming off a win, while New Orleans lost in London last week.
- The Great Foosini previews the game and makes his betting pick below.
Seahawks vs. Saints Odds
Who would've thought … Geno Smith!
As a Jets fan, you really love to see it (gently weeps inside). He has the 10th-best QBR in the league and runs an offense that averages 6.3 yards per play (YPP), which is third behind just Detroit and Miami. The world doubted this man, but that Russell Wilson trade could not look worse right now — has anyone pointed that out?
The Saints, on the other hand, do not have a clear quarterback picture right now.
Jameis Winston has four fractures in his back and, according to WebMD, that is not good for playing football. New Orleans turns to Andy Dalton again, who put up solid numbers against the Vikings in London with a 60 QBR.
That game was actually electric, and gave the crowd exactly what they wanted: A lot of "real" football. But just to bring Dalton down a few notches, the Vikings have one of the worst defenses in the league, although not quite as bad as Seattle's.
This could be a really fun game to watch, which absolutely no one would have said entering the season. There are a ton of game dynamics to analyze, similar opponents to observe, and potentially multiple betting angles to exploit.
Seahawks vs. Saints Matchup Analysis
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how the Seahawks and Saints match up statistically:
Seahawks vs. Saints DVOA Breakdown
Something I did not expect to see through four weeks of data: The Geno-led Seahawks offense ranks higher than the likes of the Chiefs, Packers, Bills, Chargers, Bucs and Broncos (gut punch). That will come back down to Earth, obviously, but there is something happening in Seattle offensively (insert Brian Windhorst meme).
Pete Carroll's squad has beaten Denver and Detroit as an underdog under a touchdown, while losing to San Francisco as a large 'dog and Atlanta as a short favorite (pick 'em in some places). Based on what we've seen from those teams this season, it isn't the most impressive string of opponents, but we can dig deeper into Seattle's opponents to glean some insights.
The Seahawks struggled against the 49ers. However, San Francisco has the best defense in the league and were in a great situational spot coming off a Week 1 loss to Chicago.
The final result (27-7) doesn't reflect the underlying numbers, as Seattle actually had 4.6 YPP that game. Even the Denver result was not reflective of the game stats, as the Broncos put up 433 yards (6.7 YPP) and only scored 16 points.
Overall, the Seahawks allow a ton of yards and points, but their offense keeps them in games, and sometimes even win it.
The Saints, on the other hand, have had a tougher schedule. They've played two road divisional games, the Super Bowl-hopeful Buccaneers at home, and the Vikings in London. Three of their games had a spread that was just outside or within a field goal — they dropped two as a 'dog and one as a road favorite.
In the one game with a spread greater than three points (Week 1 on the road against Atlanta), New Orleans was favored by 5.5 and won by one. The Saints came back in dramatic fashion, scoring 17 in the fourth quarter to win.
Based upon these spreads and results, we can deduce New Orleans is going to play close games versus opponents of any kind.
Here's what we know: Seattle tends to give up a ton of yards. That is going to happen this week, and most weeks moving forward. The Saints should finally be able to translate that YPP differential into actual points, just as every opponent Seattle has faced has done.
We also know the Saints play close games, and do not function well as a favorite. Seattle has played as an underdog between 3.5 and 6.5 points twice this year, winning outright each time.
While I do not expect Geno to win this game, it is certainly possible with Dalton at the helm plus the Saints' tendency to underachieve. New Orleans' game against the Falcons provides a nice corollary to this matchup, and I expect a similar result.
My prediction is New Orleans 26, Seattle 23, so I will be taking both the over and Seahawks with the points at 5.5.