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Colts vs Steelers Odds: Our 3 Favorite Monday Night Football Picks

Colts vs Steelers Odds: Our 3 Favorite Monday Night Football Picks article feature image
  • Colts vs. Steelers closes Week 12 on Monday Night Football.
  • Indianapolis looks to win its second game in three weeks under Jeff Saturday.
  • Check out our staff's three favorite Colts vs. Steelers picks below.

Colts vs Steelers Odds

Monday, Nov. 28
8:15 p.m. ET
ESPN
Steelers Odds
Spread Total Moneyline
+2.5
-110
39.5
-115o / -105u
+116
Colts Odds
Spread Total Moneyline
-2.5
-110
39.5
-115o / -105u
-136
Odds via FanDuel. Get up-to-the-minute NFL odds here.

Colts vs Steelers Picks

 

Click on a pick to skip ahead
Steelers +2.5
Pat Freiermuth Anytime TD
Parris Campbell Receiving Yards
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Pick
Steelers +2.5
Best Book
Time
8:15 p.m. ET

Brandon Anderson: This Monday night matchup didn’t look too enticing a few weeks ago, but both teams are playing better.

Everyone’s talking about the Colts‘ improvement under interim head coach Jeff Saturday. Indianapolis won Saturday’s first game, then nearly repeated the feat against the one-loss Eagles.

But the Steelers have been even better over their past two games, since it turns out adding T.J. Watt is a lot more meaningful than adding a high school coach.

The Colts are up to 20th in DVOA the last two games. That’s much better than their 30th ranking on the season and dead-last offense! But Pittsburgh ranks ninth over the same stretch, including top five in rushing attack and on defense. The Steelers fell short against the Bengals, but Watt really does make them an entirely different team.

The Colts defense has been pretty strong as well, so this game looks like another primetime under. I won’t bet a total, but that does tell us three points for the dog is too many — especially when Mike Tomlin remains 39-17-1 ATS (70%) as an underdog from Week 5 forward, including 17-4 ATS (81%) when he’s lost at least two of the last three.

The Colts are playing better — but so are the Steelers.

I grabbed this at +3 last week and every half point matters in what will likely be a close, low-scoring game. That being said, I still like Pittsburgh at +2.5.

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Pick
Pat Freiermuth Anytime TD (+280)
Best Book
Time
8:15 p.m. ET

Sam Farley: Monday Night Football provides a great chance to pull off a +300 anytime touchdown with a player who has received a big boost over the past few weeks.

Pat Freiermuth has been the biggest benefactor of the Steelers trading away Chase Claypool to the Bears. In two games since the trade, we’ve seen Freiermuth post an 86% route involvement and a 30% target share.

He’s stepped into elite usage for a tight end and now faces a Colts defense that’s allowed five touchdowns in 10 games to the position. He’s well worth a play at these odds.

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Pick
Parris Campbell Over 46.5 Receiving Yards
Best Book
Time
8:15 p.m. ET

Ricky Henne: I love this spot for the criminally underrated Parris Campbell.

His production fell by the wayside during the doomed Sam Ehlinger experiment, but he’s a completely different wideout with Matt Ryan under center. In their last four games together, Campbell’s caught 29 of an eye-popping 38 targets for 270 yards and three touchdowns. That comes out to 67.5 yards per game, which is well above the line set for his receiving yards against Pittsburgh.

Indianapolis is a run-first team, but the Steelers are built to stop running backs like Jonathan Taylor. On the other hand, they struggle against wideouts. They’ve given up more touchdowns (14) and yards (2,025) to wide receivers than any other team in the league.

The key is keeping the cement-footed Ryan upright against a Pittsburgh defense that blitzes 29.6% of the time, which is fifth most in the league. That’s no easy feat for the Colts’ offensive line. They’ve given up the most sacks (40) and have the fifth-worst adjusted sack rate (9.04%), per Football Outsiders.

Even so, the Steelers struggle so much against wide receivers that I like Campbell’s chances, nonetheless.


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