Pat Freiermuth Player Props: Expert Pick for Steelers vs Colts
Photo by Patrick Smith/Getty Images. Pictured: Pat Freiermuth
Pat Freiermuth Receiving Yards
|Prop||Over 45.5 Receiving Yards (-110)|
|Matchup||Steelers vs. Colts|
|Day, Time||Monday, 8:15 p.m. ET|
The Steelers have played two games since trading away Chase Claypool and it’s become crystal clear that Freiermuth is the No. 1 target in this offense.
In that span, Freiermuth has been targeted 19 times – George Pickens and Diontae Johnson are tied for second with 10 apiece. He’s such an integral piece that he has yet to stay in and block on a single pass play as well.
Both of those games were against defenses that ranked in the top 10 in DVOA against tight ends (New Orleans, Cincinnati). Notably, those teams also play man coverage at a top-10 rate.
Now, Freiermuth goes up against a Colts defense that has struggled against tight ends (27th) and plays zone at an above average rate. This is good news as he has a 0.78 yards per route run (Y/RR) rate against man compared to 2.01 against zone.
The Colts blitz at the lowest rate in the league, which should funnel targets to Freiermuth. He has a 15% target share against the blitz and a 20% target share when a team rushes four or fewer.
I’m projecting his median closer to 52.5, but absolutely love his upside in this matchup.