One of my favorite prop bets each Super Bowl is wagering on a team to score at least three straight times. The first the time I wagered on this prop bet was during Super Bowl 41 between the Indianapolis Colts and the Chicago Bears.
Peyton Manning and the Colts fell behind, 14-6, after the first quarter but scored 16 unanswered points to help Manning win his first championship. More importantly, the field goal-touchdown-field goal-field goal scoring spree during the second and third quarters cashed my prop bet.
I’ve bet “yes” on three straight scores in every Super Bowl since and I’ll be on it once again during Super Bowl 54. History suggests you should place this wager as well.
Will either team score 3 straight times?
- Yes -265
- No +200
Odds as of Thursday morning and via DraftKings, where Action Network users get a risk-free bet up to $500.
Per DraftKings, this prop excludes extra points and two-point conversions. For example, a “yes” bet would cash if the Chiefs were to score a touchdown, kick a field goal and score a touchdown without the 49ers scoring in between.
At -265 odds, the implied probability of "yes" hitting is 72.6%. Using the Bet Labs database, there have been 186 NFL Playoff games since the 2003-04 season. In 120 of those games at least one team has scored three straight times, or in other words, bettors wagering on "yes" have won 64.5% of the time.
That’s close, but not good enough to say betting "yes" has positive expected value. However, context is important, and as you might expect, higher-scoring games have been friendlier to "yes" bettors over the years.
Since 2003, there have been 36 playoff games with an over/under of 50 or higher, and a team has scored three straight times in 25 of them (69.4%). In games with over/unders of 55 or more points, "yes" has gone 10-2.
The 49ers-Chiefs total opened at 51.5 and has been bet up to 54, and The Action Network model projects the teams to combine for 56.3 points on average.
With oddsmakers and our simulations are expecting a shootout, it's shaping up to be another promising year to bet "yes" on this prop.
And of course, if you think one team will score three straight times, like I do, be sure to shop around for the best line.
