The Tampa Bay Buccaneers (5-2) and New Orleans Saints (1-6) face off in Week 8. Kickoff is set for 4:05 p.m. ET from Caesars Superdome in New Orleans, La. The game will broadcast on FOX.
The Buccaneers are 4.5-point favorites over the Saints on the spread (Buccaneers -4.5), with the game total set at 46.5. Tampa Bay is a -225 favorite to win outright on the moneyline; New Orleans is +180 to pull off the upset.
Find my Week 8 preview for this NFC South clash below, which includes my Buccaneers vs Saints predictions for Sunday, October 26.
Buccaneers vs Saints Prediction
- Buccaneers vs Saints pick: Saints +4.5 (-115)
My Saints vs Buccaneers best bet is on New Orleans to cover the spread. Find the best odds by checking our live NFL odds page.
Buccaneers vs Saints Odds
| Buccaneers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-4 -110 | 47 -110o / -110u | -220 |
| Saints Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+4 -110 | 47 -110o / -110u | +180 |
Buccaneers vs Saints Week 8 Preview
The Saints have been bad — but also unlucky. They rank among the unluckiest teams in our Luck Rankings, and this matchup actually grades as a "B." The model gives New Orleans about a 58% cover probability here.
Beyond that, it’s just a bad spot for Tampa Bay.
The Buccaneers are coming off a very physical game against the Lions on Monday Night Football, and now have to play on a short week on the road in a divisional game.
The Bucs will likely be without Chris Godwin, Mike Evans and Bucky Irving — essentially three of their top four offensive skill players. Emeka Egbuka — who clearly isn't 100% healthy — was inefficient on Monday with 11 targets for just 58 yards.
This matchup really favors the Saints.
The Bucs are always going to blitz — that’s what they do defensively — but Spencer Rattler has actually played surprisingly well against the blitz this season. Rattler ranks second in PFF grade in that category and sits inside the top-10 in several other passing metrics.
That’s important because the Bucs won’t change who they are defensively. Blitzing is their identity; I don’t expect them to lay off here, which may somewhat favor the Saints.
New Orleans has enough firepower to get the job done with Alvin Kamara, Chris Olave and Rashid Shaheed. They’ve underperformed compared to what their underlying metrics say they should be scoring.
Rattler was playing better, but last week he had something like two months’ worth of turnover-worthy plays. Hopefully, he got that out of his system.
Overall, the Saints seem underrated while Tampa Bay is starting to look a bit overrated.
Buccaneers vs Saints Prediction, Betting Analysis
Without Evans, Godwin, and Irving, it’s going to be tough for Tampa Bay. Baker Mayfield has done a good job getting the ball to guys like Tez Johnson, but that can only go so far.
People forget the Bucs went on a four-game losing streak last year when Evans and Godwin went down.
It’s not like Mayfield can just make any receiver look good. This Bucs team is very reliant on their wide receivers; they’re going to rotate a lot of receivers, but the talent gap is still huge.
On the other side of the ball, when you look at the defensive metrics, the Saints have actually been better than the Bucs in most areas except run defense.
The Bucs are great against the run, but the Saints aren’t really a running team to begin with. I’m not too worried about that.
With Kendre Miller on injury reserve, the Saints will likely keep leaning on Kamara in the passing game, with some Taysom Hill mixed in as a change-of-pace option.
The Saints are playing better than this spread gives them credit for.
Pick: Saints +4.5 (-115)
Spread
My Saints vs Buccaneers betting prediction is on New Orleans to cover the spread at +4.5.
Moneyline
I'm taking the points with the Saints as opposed to betting them to win outright on the moneyline.
Over/Under
No play on the total in this matchup.
