The Tampa Bay Buccaneers (3-1) and Seattle Seahawks (3-1) meet in NFL Week 5 on Sunday, October 5. Kickoff is set for 4:05 p.m. ET from Lumen Field in Seattle, Was. The game will broadcast live on CBS.
The Seahawks are favored by -3.5 on the spread with the over/under set at 44.5. The Seahawks are -185 favorites to win outright on the moneyline; the Buccaneers are +155 to pull off the upset.
Let's get into my Buccaneers vs Seahawks predictions for this NFC clash on Sunday afternoon.
Buccaneers vs Seahawks Prediction
- Buccaneers vs Seahawks pick: Seahawks -3.5
My Buccaneers vs Seahawks best bet is the Seahawks to cover the spread. Find the best odds by checking our live NFL odds page.
Buccaneers vs Seahawks Odds
| Buccaneers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+3.5 -110 | 44.5 -110o / -110u | +155 |
| Seahawks Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-3.5 -110 | 44.5 -110o / -110u | -185 |
- Buccaneers vs Seahawks Spread: Buccaneers +3.5, Seahawks -3.5
- Buccaneers vs Seahawks Over/Under: 44.5
- Buccaneers vs Seahawks Moneyline: Buccaneers +155, Seahawks -185
Buccaneers vs Seahawks Week 5 Preview
The Seahawks defense has been elite this season. The two key elements of their defense are what every NFL team strives for: they can stop the run and they can pressure the quarterback without resorting to blitzing.
The Buccaneers offense is not at full strength, currently dealing with a myriad of injuries to several key pieces. This is going to be an uphill battle for Baker Mayfield and company on Sunday.
Tampa Bay will be without running back Bucky Irving, the player who single-handedly resurrected the running game for this offense in 2024.
The Seahawks defense ranks fourth in yards per carry allowed this season and they have yet to allow a rushing score from an opposing running back. If Tampa Bay is going to sustain drives successfully, it will need more of the Mayfield magic we have become accustomed to seeing.
The problem for the Bucs and Mayfield is that they are allowing too much pressure. Mayfield was pressured on 44% of his dropbacks against Philadelphia last week, and he is starting to become sensitive to the fact that his makeshift offensive line is struggling to hold up in protection.
Mayfield has completed just 49% of his throws against pressure this season, and in total, he has a 5.1% turnover-worthy throw rate. He is fortunate to only have one interception this season.
The Seahawks' pass defense ranks as the best in the league in adjusted net yards per attempt. This metric accounts for sacks in addition to the pure yardage allowed per pass attempt. Opposing quarterbacks have a 76.4 passer rating against Seattle, which is the fourth-best mark in the league.
The Bucs defense under Todd Bowles takes a much different approach to pressuring the quarterback. Seattle's defense is 31st in blitz rate, but the Tampa defense blitzes at the fifth-highest rate. The Bucs’ pressure rate is sixth best in the league, but I believe Sam Darnold is well-equipped to deal with extra rushers being sent his direction.
Per Pro Football Focus, Darnold has graded out as the second-best quarterback against the blitz this season and his league-best 11.0 yards per attempt against extra rushers reflect that grade. Over the last three weeks, Darnold has had the highest yards per attempt of any passer in football.
The Bucs’ pass defense will also be a man down this week with Jamel Dean missing this game. Dean has graded out as the third-best corner in football, per PFF.
This is a significant absence considering his assignment would have been Jaxon Smith-Njigba, the NFL leader in yards per route run and one of the top target earners at the position.
Buccaneers vs Seahawks Prediction, Betting Analysis
I am not discounting how sound the Buccaneers' rush defense has played this season, but the offensive system and the benefit of protection in the pocket are on the side of Darnold over Mayfield.
Tampa Bay’s offensive line is 30th in pass block win rate this season. Mayfield is going to face certain pressure and it’s going to result in drive-killing sacks or potential short fields for the Seattle offense.
Oddsmakers are begging bettors to grab the underdog at above a field goal, but I’ll be siding with the 12th man and the team that is going to win the line of scrimmage.
Pick: Seahawks -3.5 (-110, bet365)
