What Tim Boyle Over Zach Wilson Means for Dolphins vs. Jets Odds on Black Friday

Dolphins vs. Jets Black Friday Odds

It's official: Jets quarterback Zach Wilson has finally been benched.

That's after a hapless string of games in which the Jets didn't score a touchdown for 40 straight possessions. The streak was finally broken on Sunday vs. the Bills — but it required a fake punt to get there. And in the end, Wilson didn't complete a single pass to a wide receiver during a 32-6 blowout in Buffalo.

So, journeyman third stringer Tim Boyle will take the reins in the Meadowlands for a Black Friday showdown against the Dolphins that has major AFC East implications. The Jets find their odds to make the playoffs plummet to below 1% with a loss — not that the playoffs are much of a distinct possibility, anyway. The odds of Aaron Rodgers returning this season will take a nosedive alongside with it.

And a Dolphins loss opens the door for the Bills to retake the division lead.

But oddly, despite Wilson's rank as the worst starting quarterback in the league according to expected points added + completion percentage above expected (EPA/play + CPOE), the Jets' odds vs. the Dolphins fell precipitously when it was announced he'd be benched.

The line moved from a consensus of Jets +7.5 to +9.5 in the aftermath of the news.

That jibes somewhat with our director of analytics Sean Koerner's assessment of this game. He said he expects a roughly 1- to 1.5-point drop off from Wilson to Boyle.