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This is Daily Dangles, a column featuring our top expert’s NHL picks, predictions, and best bets.
Every day, one of our experts will provide you with some of the sharpest, high-value betting analysis on what the NHL schedule offers us.
For Thursday, October 8, Nick Martin has us covered.
NHL Picks, Predictions Tonight
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- Stars ML (-118, DraftKings | Play to -123)
- Elias Pettersson Over 0.5 Points (-120, bet365 | Play to -125)
- Robert Thomas and Jimmy Snuggerud 1+ Point Each (+100, bet365 | Play to -110)
Stars vs Sabres Pick
The Stars opened as slight underdogs (-105) in Thursday's matchup, and I made sure to get that play posted to my Action profile Wednesday afternoon as my first bet from Thursday's slate.
It's a pretty simple early-season handicap for me on this matchup; the Stars project to be the better team this season and enter well-rested after coming through for us on Monday night versus the Sharks. They dropped their first two games of the year, but more so than the vast majority of teams, we know more or less what the Stars are, and it would take a lengthy stretch of surprisingly poor play to feel comfortable downgrading their power rating.
In all likelihood, at least five of Jason Robertson, Wyatt Johnston, Mikko Rantanen, Miro Heiskanen, Thomas Harley and Roope Hintz will be elite players this season. Matt Duchene's absence hurts, but that still leaves Hintz and Johnston centering the top two lines, while the top two defensive pairings should both be excellent.
This bet is not really a knock on the Sabres; they played very well in their last matchup and dug their way out of a 2-0 hole versus the Wild, in a game Buffalo never deserved to be trailing. But as we touched on Monday, the Stars are a full-fledged Cup contender and still look to be a solid bet to win it all, with teams such as Minnesota in particular currently considered more likely to win the Cup.
Pick: Stars ML (-118, DraftKings | Play to -123)
Canucks vs Hurricanes Pick
It seems pretty safe to conclude that Adam Foote truly did a terrible job with the Canucks last season as head coach, and that notion likely flew a little under the radar given that the team's injury-plagued lineups were also awful on paper. Perhaps one of Foote's biggest gaffes was offering Elias Pettersson usage that was highly unlikely to lead to any kind of confidence or production, particularly given the team's desire to trade Pettersson.
Pettersson looks to have new life under head coach Manny Malhotra thus far this season. It's far too early to say he is the same player he was at his best, but his overall compete level has been excellent, while his savvy playmaking abilities look likely to be better utilized on a side playing a more respectable brand of hockey.
Aided by a soft schedule and some high-scoring games, Pettersson has produced six points in the first four games of the season. While the Hurricanes do provide a much more difficult test, they have looked uncharacteristically sloppy defensively thus far and perhaps aren't entirely ready to grind out close defensive games after winning it all late last June.
If Pettersson continues to resemble a legitimate top-line talent, prices in the -120 range for him to record a point won't exist for long, and this seems like a good time to keep buying on a former 100-point player.
Pick: Elias Pettersson Over 0.5 Points (-120, bet365 | Play to -125)
Sharks vs Blues Pick
The Sharks should play in plenty of highly entertaining matchups this season. There may not be a player in the league who combines talent with motor quite like Macklin Celebrini (who remains day-to-day and missed practice Wednesday), while Ivar Stenberg should finish as a Calder Trophy nominee at a minimum.
But the back end is a huge concern, and the overall lack of quality two-way talents should mean the Sharks aren't much better defensively than they were a year ago, even if playing in what figures to be a very soft Pacific Division may help hide that flaw at times.
Last season, across 253.9 minutes of play, the Blues' current top line of Robert Thomas, Jimmy Snuggerud and Dylan Holloway generated 3.55 xGF/60 and scored 5.67 goals per 60 where it counts, which was the highest mark of any line to spend 200 minutes together.
The three remain together on both the top line and top power play, and it wouldn't be overly surprising if both Snuggerud and Holloway are able to offer more consistent seasons at ages 22 and 25, respectively.
At +100 in a spot with a high implied team total, there looks to be value in backing Thomas and Snuggerud, each to record a point.
Pick: Robert Thomas and Jimmy Snuggerud 1+ Point Each (+100, bet365 | Play to -110)
