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Locky’s NHL First Period Model, 4/4: Shark Attack


Sergei Belski-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Hunter

Good morning!

As we wind down the regular season, and therefore wind down these projections, we reach the final Thursday, and a large 12-game slate.

Surely, we can find some edges here, no?

A Reminder

If you’re new here, I built a model to handicap first-period over/unders in the NHL.

To provide the greatest value to you the bettor, each of these articles will include a downloadable Excel file at the bottom.In it, you can insert the line at your sportsbook of choice and see the bets that are — and aren’t — offering value, according to my model.

Thursday’s Slate 

Well, against the openers, the overs stand out. Three of them, initially, with the largest being San Jose-Edmonton.

That isn’t ultimately surprising, since these are basically the two league-leaders in terms of their distributions of goals being skewed to the first period. The Sharks score a lot anyway, but 34.8% of their goals are scored in the first (league average about 29.38%), and the Oilers don’t score as much overall  but still score 33.48% of their goals in the first.

That combination of teams is going to likely create value on a derivative that’s posted in relation to the full total, instead of those profiles.

Locky’s First-Period NHL Over/Unders: Full Slate Projections

Download the Excel doc to input odds from your sportsbooks. The table below is best viewed on a desktop computer.

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