Freedman’s Favorite NHL Matchup (Jan. 18): Anders Lee vs. Josh Bailey

Jan 18, 2019 12:18 PM EST
Credit:

Kim Klement, USA Today Sports. Pictured: Josh Bailey

  • In 2019, Matthew Freedman is writing a new series featuring his favorite prop bet for each day.
  • On Friday, he looks at the Islanders-Capitals NHL game and the head-to-head matchup between New York wingers Anders Lee and Josh Bailey

Each day, I publish at least one quick-n’-dirty piece highlighting a favorite prop of mine.

For more information on my research process and the resources I use, see the master list of my 2019 prop bets.

2019 Year-to-Date Record

11-9-2, +9.42 Units

  • Golf: 2-1-0, +1.30 Units
  • NFL: 3-4-0, +6.35 Units
  • NBA: 3-2-0, +0.82 Units
  • NHL: 3-1-2, +1.95 Units
  • NCAAF: 0-1-0. -1.0 Units

Freedman’s Favorite NHL Matchup for Friday, Jan. 18: Anders Lee vs. Josh Bailey, More Points

  • Anders Lee: -180
  • Josh Bailey: +150

It’s been several days since we looked at hockey, so we’re returning to the ice tonight with the Capitals-Islanders game (ESPN+, 7:30 p.m. ET).

Lee and Bailey are both Islanders wingers, so it might seem weird to target a matchup that pits them against each other, but Bailey offers too much value to pass up at his odds.

Lee is almost certainly the better player: He skates on the first forward and power play lines, while Bailey is on the second line for both units.

But over the past 12 months, the longtime teammates have had similar numbers (per the FantasyLabs NHL Models).

  • Lee: 0.71 points, 17:37 time on ice, 12.35 Corsi For
  • Bailey: 0.70 points, 17:63 time on ice, 12.79 Corsi For

For the season, Lee has more points per game (0.80 vs. 0.76), but his edge there isn’t large.

And over the past month Bailey has had the superior Corsi For (15.73 vs. 11.55) while owning a nearly identical time on ice (16.64 vs. 16.68) and matching Lee in assists per game (0.43).

Given how comparable Lee and Bailey have been, it’s hard not to take the slightly less productive player at significantly better odds.

I would bet it down to +135.

The Pick: Bailey (+150)


Matthew Freedman is the Editor-in-Chief of FantasyLabs. He has a dog and sometimes a British accent. In Cedar Rapids, Iowa, he’s known only as The Labyrinthian.

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@MattFtheOracle

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