Polymarket gives Anthropic a 68% chance of trading publicly by December 31, and October is carrying half of that number by itself.
The event is a ladder of four date markets, each resolving Yes if Anthropic's shares are trading by the stated deadline.
By September 15 sits at 1%, by September 30 at 6%, by October 31 at 39%, and by December 31 at 68%. Stack those and you get a picture of what traders expect. October alone is worth 33 points, while November and December together are worth 28.5.
When Will Anthropic IPO Launch? Polymarket Odds
Anthropic submitted its S-1 confidentially on June 1, and Bloomberg reported in mid-July that Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan and Morgan Stanley were scheduling investor meetings for an October Nasdaq listing, with the raise sized above $60 billion. Roadshows typically run four to eight weeks ahead of pricing. The board has taken the reported month and made it the base case, with the November and December weight sitting there as the delayed scenario.
The data shows that repricing is happening in real time. The December market printed 77% on July 16 as the roadshow story landed, then faded to 67.5% today. The October market ran 43% on July 15, dropped to 23.5% by July 30, and is back at 39.5% now on $7,200 of daily volume. The four date markets have cleared $971,000 combined.
The second big market for this event is on Anthropic’s valuation. Nine brackets price Anthropic's market cap at the close on IPO day, and they give an idea on the market’s expectations for share price. Below $1.25T trades at 11%, $1.5T to $1.75T at 17%, $2.25T to $2.5T at 17%, and $3T or more at 3%. Run the cumulative distribution and the median lands inside the $1.75T to $2.0T bracket.
Anthropic's last private mark was $965 billion, set in a $65 billion Series H-1 in May. The board is pricing a rough double in valuation on the first close after they go public.
Back to the month they IPO market. SEC comment rounds, a public S-1 that has not landed yet, and a roadshow that has to fit between Labor Day and Thanksgiving.
Anthropic's IPO is priced as an October event with a one-quarter delay as a real possibility.
The Trade
Buy No on the October market at 62¢. The public S-1 has not been filed yet, that filing is the event everything else waits on, and roadshows run four to eight weeks ahead of pricing, so an October listing needs the calendar to go perfectly from here on out. The risk is a public S-1 landing in the next two weeks, which puts October pricing back in range. Not financial advice.
