James Talarico just put up a number no Senate candidate has hit before. The Texas Democrat raised $64 million in the third quarter, the most any Senate campaign has brought in during a single quarter, according to his campaign. That total pushes his overall fundraising past $134 million since he entered the race last year, and it’s the kind of report that moves a contract. Don't forget to download the Action Network app for more picks and analysis, and grab the Kalshi promo code before you jump in.
Talarico vs Paxton: Texas Senate Race
Kalshi lets traders buy and sell contracts tied to real-world outcomes, like which party wins a Senate seat. Prices move as new information lands: a fundraising report, a poll, a debate that doesn’t happen, so the price reflects what the market collectively expects right now, not a lock on the outcome. You can check our Kalshi review, and visit Prediction Pro for more prediction market analysis.
A Reversal Years in the Making
Kalshi’s contract on who wins the Texas Senate seat has flipped completely since it opened in late 2024. Paxton, the sitting attorney general, was the heavy favorite for most of last year. Talarico’s share climbed steadily through 2026, the two lines crossed in the spring, and he’s held a clear lead on the contract ever since, a wider gap than public polling shows. A Fox News poll released October 2 had Talarico ahead by just two points, 51% to 49%, with Fox Local, citing Texas Politics Project data, describing the overall race as a dead heat heading into early voting.
Why the Market Sees It Differently
Money helps explain the gap. Talarico’s $64 million quarter was more than three times what Paxton brought in ($18 million), and total ad spending in the race has already crossed $500 million, putting Texas on track to become the most expensive non-presidential race in U.S. history. Republican-aligned ad spending in the state has topped $368 million this cycle, per AdImpact figures cited by the Times, outside money working to close the fundraising gap, even if it doesn’t always carry the same weight as a campaign’s own haul when a market is pricing a race.
Talarico has also had more room to make his case lately. He returned to the trail this month after a well-covered absence recovering from the flu, and on Wednesday he answered questions alone at a CNN town hall in Fort Worth, since Paxton still hasn’t agreed to debate him. He leaned into his central message there, saying he wants to “end billionaire control over our politics,” and also addressed his position on abortion and gender-affirming care for minors.
What to Watch Next
The next data points worth tracking are turnout in early voting, which starts this week, and whether Paxton agrees to any debate before Election Day. Another strong fundraising report in the final stretch, or a shift in ad spending totals, could move the contract again before polls close on November 3.
With early voting underway and Election Day 3 weeks out, this is exactly the kind of window where a report like Talarico’s can move a contract faster than it shows up in public polling. The gap between where Kalshi has this race and where the polls sit gives traders a clear angle to weigh before the price catches up any further.
