US Politicians Ranked by Prediction Market Trading Volume

Prediction markets have become one of the clearest live read-outs on American politics, and the money moving through the best political trading apps such as Polymarket and Kalshi doesn’t always point where you’d expect. This look at every open politics market naming a US politician, plus every 2026 Governor and Senate race market, draws on two data pulls per platform taken a few days apart in October 2026 (full snapshot dates below).

One thing worth stating up front: a high total means a lot of money changed hands on markets naming that person, not that the person is popular or favored. A market naming two politicians counts in full toward both of their totals, so the lists aren’t a zero-sum ranking.

If you want to trade on these politicians yourself, you can use our Polymarket promo code to get started before diving into the numbers below.

Polymarket Trading Volume: US Politicians

Across every open Polymarket politics market, total volume runs to roughly $2.18 billion. Tim Walz tops the list at $88.67 million, spread across just eight markets, ahead of Donald Trump’s $85.53 million across 547 separate markets, by far the most of anyone tracked, which means his money is spread thin while Walz’s is concentrated.

Musk is the outlier in this top 10. He has never held elected office, he’s included here under the dataset’s rule that appointed or advisory roles count, a reference to his time leading DOGE. Almost all of his $62.57 million comes from two markets predicting a future he hasn’t entered: $31.39 million on whether he wins the 2028 Republican presidential nomination, and $27.23 million on whether he wins the presidency outright.

Midterms markets ranked by trading volume – Polymarket

Polymarket’s 2026 Governor and Senate race markets total $60.72 million across 194 candidate markets in 71 races. One race accounts for most of it.

California’s governor race alone makes up 69% of all midterm race volume on Polymarket. Tom Steyer leads the individual candidate markets at $4.81 million, ahead of Steve Hilton ($3.23 million) and Xavier Becerra ($2.12 million), in a field that also includes Katie Porter, Rick Caruso, Kamala Harris and Antonio Villaraigosa. No other race comes close: Texas Senate, the second-highest race, trades at roughly 9% of California’s volume.

Kalshi Trading Volume: US Politicians

Kalshi reports volume in contracts rather than audited dollars, but its own platform labels this figure “$ vol” since each contract settles at $1. The totals below use that same convention.

Across every open Kalshi politics market, total volume runs to roughly $573.1 million.

Trump leads with 878 markets, by far the most of anyone tracked, which is enough raw contract volume on its own to put him well ahead of the next closest name. Steve Hilton’s appearance in the top 10 comes from his California governor race markets, which carry heavy contract volume.

Midterms markets ranked by trading volume – Kalshi

Kalshi’s 149 midterm candidate and party markets across 71 races total roughly $90.9 million. Texas Senate is the runaway leader.

Texas Senate trades at more than double the volume of second-placed Maine. Ken Paxton’s outcome accounts for $13.06 million of that race’s volume on its own, ahead of James Talarico’s $8.79 million. Maine Senate follows a similar pattern, split between Susan Collins ($4.24 million) and Troy Jackson ($4.07 million).

Democrats vs Republicans: 2026 Midterm Race Volume

By platform:

Combined:

Democrats lead combined, by about $9.13 million, driven almost entirely by California’s governor race, where Tom Steyer, Alex Padilla, Rick Caruso, Katie Porter, Betty Yee, Antonio Villaraigosa and Stephen Cloobeck are all Democrats trading in the millions. Republicans lead on Kalshi alone, by $10.67 million, Texas Senate’s Ken Paxton is the single biggest driver there.

The rankings below draw on each politician’s total activity across every market, not just the 2026 races, so they won’t reconcile with the midterm totals above.

Methodology

Snapshot dates. Two data pulls per platform: the all-politicians figures are from Polymarket October 6 and Kalshi October 12; the midterm race figures are from Polymarket October 5 and Kalshi October 9.

Kalshi volume is contracts, not audited dollars. Each contract settles at $1, and Kalshi’s own interface displays this figure as “$ vol,” so this piece follows that convention throughout. Polymarket volume is actual traded USD.

Combining the politician and race datasets. Each politician’s total reflects their full trading volume across both the general politician-market data and the 2026 midterm race data, counted once. On Kalshi, the two datasets overlap almost completely; on Polymarket, most midterm race markets, including the entire Texas Senate and Maine Senate races, sit outside the general politician-market data, most likely because those specific events carry different platform tags, so midterm race volume was added in directly from the race data for those candidates.

A market naming two politicians credits both in full. Per-politician totals therefore sum to more than the platform-wide total.

Party classification. Two different methods apply here, for two different sets of numbers. For the Democrats vs Republicans totals above, which are scoped to the 2026 midterm races, Kalshi’s questions state the party directly, and Polymarket’s titles carry “(D)”/”(R)” suffixes for most Senate races; candidates without a suffix were classified against official state candidate filings (California and Alaska Secretary of State records), Ballotpedia and news reporting. A small number of candidates run as Green Party (Butch Ware, Richard Grayson) or No Party Preference (Nicole Shanahan, Daniel Mercuri, Elaine Culotti) and are reported as Independent/Other rather than folded into either major party. For the Top Republicans and Top Democrats tables, which draw on each politician’s full trading volume across every market, party was assigned from each person’s current, publicly known affiliation. Three names from that wider pool don’t fit either party and are excluded from both tables rather than forced in: Elon Musk has never held elected office or any party affiliation; Andrew Yang left the Democratic Party in 2021 to found the Forward Party; Bernie Sanders is a registered independent who caucuses with Democrats but isn’t one. Some high-volume markets, including Alex Padilla and Kamala Harris in the California governor race, are trading on candidates who have publicly declined to run; the volume is real, the candidacy is hypothetical.

Volume is not popularity. These figures measure money traded, not how well-liked or favored a politician is, and race odds are a snapshot that changes continuously.

You can check out the dataset here.