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On Wednesday, The New York Times released a recording of Republican Senate candidate Ken Paxton speaking at a private fundraiser in Washington, D.C. The audio, captured by an attendee, features him discussing the impact of President Trump's midterm convention in Dallas, suggesting that "everybody's numbers dropped" after the event. Although Paxton's adviser, Nick Maddux, dismissed the report as "manipulated nonsense," the campaign has not denied that Paxton is the speaker.
On that same day, Polymarket's contract for a Republican Senate victory in Texas dropped from 39.5% to 35.5%. By the following day, it rebounded slightly to 37.5%, now mirroring the probability for Republican control of the entire Senate. This fluctuation fits a broader slide for Republicans since the convention, where odds for Republican candidates in nearly every competitive Senate race have fallen, suggesting an issue with the party's brand rather than specific candidates.
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Midterm Election Predictions Sway After Trump Intervenes
The root of the Republicans' slide seems to lie with Trump. According to a Reuters/Ipsos poll from September 17–20, his approval rating fell to 32%, the lowest of either presidential term, while a late-September Quinnipiac poll put it at 34%. By mid-September, Republicans had lost their longstanding advantage as the party voters trust more on the economy, and by the end of September, Trump's personal economic approval rating hit a record low. Gas prices are a big part of why.
When Trump took office in January 2025, the average price per gallon was $3.23, and by late September 2026, it had risen to $4.61, a hike largely attributed to the ongoing conflict with Iran. At a rally in North Carolina on September 16, Trump described the higher gas prices as "a very inexpensive price to pay" for the conflict.
The Dallas convention on September 9 and 10 was meant to reverse the slide. In his speech, Trump promised every American a $5,000 dividend if Republicans keep control of Congress. A Reuters/Ipsos poll taken in the days after the convention found that 63% of Americans disapproved of the cash offer, including 4 in 10 Republicans.
CNN reported on September 30 that Silver Bulletin and FiftyPlusOne both show Democrats gaining at least two points on the generic ballot since the convention. On Polymarket, Republican Senate control fell from 48.5% the day before the convention to 34.5% by September 22. It sits at 37.5% now. The individual races largely show the same slide.
Republican contracts in Polymarket's competitive Senate races (October 1 prices – Alaska's market is listed by candidate):
9 of the 11 fell. North Carolina and Georgia trade thinly, so the direction of those moves matters more than their size.
Texas Senate Race Movement
Although Texas saw the biggest drop, the market hasn't treated Paxton himself as the problem. Notably, when Trump endorsed Paxton over incumbent Republican Senator John Cornyn on May 19, the Republican contract dropped from 54.5% to 47.5% almost immediately, but rebounded to 55.5% by the next afternoon.
After Paxton won the May 26 runoff, the Republican contract rose to 60.5%, held in the mid-50s through most of July, and slipped to about 50% by the day before the convention. This recent decline tracks with national trends. Paxton's campaign says its internal polling shows him up three points, though he has trailed narrowly in many public polls. Get the latest on Texas' Senate race here.
Nebraska and Massachusetts Candidates React
Only two races diverged from this trend. In Nebraska, Democrats are supporting independent candidate Dan Osborn against Senator Pete Ricketts, making that race less influenced by national party dynamics. Maine is the more telling case.
Senator Susan Collins voted to convict Trump in his second impeachment and breaks with her party at the third-highest rate among Senate Republicans, according to the Portland Press Herald, though Trump did endorse her back in June.
Her Polymarket price jumped from 26.5% to 40.5% when a New York Times/Siena/Portland Press Herald poll, released September 24, put her ahead of Democrat Troy Jackson, 49% to 46%. The same poll found Trump's approval at just 32% among likely voters in Maine. While one race can't prove that keeping distance from Trump works, Collins is the only Republican in a two-party race who is currently gaining ground.
