Thursday delivered a split-screen moment for the 2026 midterms. President Donald Trump opened his October campaign travel with a rally in deep-red Oklahoma, while new CNN reporting revealed that Bernie Sanders is about to direct real money toward competitive Senate races after his own party argued he hadn't done enough.
If you want to follow how the fight for Congress develops from here, this Kalshi promo code is worth checking out, and you can download the Action Network app for more picks and analysis as the campaign enters its final stretch.
Midterms on Kalshi
Prediction markets let traders take a position on real-world events, including elections, by buying and selling contracts tied to a specific outcome… in this case, which party controls the House and Senate once the midterms are decided. Prices shift in real time as news breaks, moving with polling, fundraising reports, and campaign developments, then settle once the result is official.
Trump Opens October in Friendly Territory
President Trump kicked off his October travel schedule with a Thursday rally in Durant, Oklahoma, a state he carried in every county back in 2024. Earlier in the day, he stopped at a truck factory outside Dallas.
Trump had floated campaigning across dozens of competitive House districts this fall, but his first two stops of the month are in Oklahoma and, on Friday, Alabama, two of the most reliably Republican states in the country, where the party is working to protect turnout rather than flip new ground. Oklahoma Sen. James Lankford said the state was "honored" to host the rally, which doubled as a show of support for GOP gubernatorial candidate Mike Mazzei.
Sanders and Democrats Mobilize Down the Ballot
CNN reported Thursday that Senate Democrats' campaign arm pushed Sanders to get more involved in the final weeks, even as people close to him argue he's already contributing more than almost anyone else in the chamber.
The Vermont independent is reportedly directing money from his own campaign account toward three Senate nominees he backed in their primaries: Angie Nixon in Florida, Peggy Flanagan in Minnesota, and Abdul El-Sayed in Michigan, a race that's already drawn plenty of national attention this cycle.
Sanders' involvement isn't limited to the Senate, either, a competitive House race in Lansing, Michigan, between Sanders-backed Will Lawrence and Republican Rep. Tom Barrett, has also become an internal point of concern after past comments from Lawrence about older Black Democratic leaders.
The Senate Races to Watch This Fall
A handful of states will likely decide who holds the majority come January:
- Michigan: Abdul El-Sayed (D) vs. Mike Rogers (R). The only Democratic-held seat rated a Toss-Up by the Cook Political Report.
- Iowa: Josh Turek (D) vs. Ashley Hinson (R). Moved from "Lean Republican" to "Toss-Up" in August.
- Texas: James Talarico (D) vs. Ken Paxton (R). Also shifted to "Toss-Up" after decades of comfortable Republican wins.
- Ohio: Sherrod Brown (D) vs. Jon Husted (R). A special election most forecasters still call a Toss-Up.
- Maine: Troy Jackson (D) vs. Susan Collins (R). One of the longest-standing Toss-Ups on the board.
Why the Balance of Power Market Is Worth Trading This Week
Kalshi's contract on control of Congress after the midterms covers four possible outcomes: a Democratic sweep of both chambers, a Republican sweep, or a split Congress in either direction.
Right now a full Democratic sweep is the clear favorite, and that lead has grown noticeably over the past few weeks, while the chances of a Republican sweep have faded over that same stretch. A Congress with a Democratic House and a Republican Senate sits as a distant second option, and the reverse split, Republican House, Democratic Senate, barely registers at all.
That gap is worth watching heading into the final five weeks of the campaign. Days like today, with both parties sending out their most energizing figures: Republicans reinforcing safe ground, Democrats pushing money into competitive Senate races, tend to move these numbers before the headlines fully sink in. For traders who'd rather get ahead of the next shift than react to it, this is the kind of week where early positioning tends to pay off.
