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2021 Champions League Final Betting Preview: Manchester City vs. Chelsea Total Has Value

2021 Champions League Final Betting Preview: Manchester City vs. Chelsea Total Has Value article feature image

Eddie Keogh – The FA/The FA via Getty Images. Pictured: Pep Guardiola (left) and Thomas Tuchel.

The Champions League final is set after Chelsea dispatched Real Madrid 2-0 on Wednesday at Stamford Bridge.

It's an all-English final: Manchester City and Chelsea will meet for the third time in a little over a month on Saturday, May 29.

Here are the opening odds via DraftKings:

Manchester City vs. Chelsea

Manchester City-106
Over/Under2.5 (-105 / -118)
How to WatchParamount+
Odds as of Wednesday afternoon via DraftKings.

And here are my projections for the game:

Manchester City vs. Chelsea Projections

These two are going to be tired of seeing each other by May 29.

Not only did these two meet in an FA Cup semifinal on April 17, from which Chelsea walked away with a 1-0 victory, but the two meet this Saturday in the Premier League with Manchester City being able to secure the league title with a win.

The first thing that stuck out to me was that under 2.5 goals for the weekend's Premier League match is -143, but the same for the Champions League final is -118.

Why such a drastic difference?

Could books be assuming that on Saturday, both teams will be resting guys because they technically don't need three points? City are going to win the title, it's just a matter of time. Chelsea appear to have a top-four spot pretty well secured. Are both managers not going to be willing to show anything to their opponent tactically?

No matter how you look at the matchup, though, these are two of the best defensive teams in the world.

They are definitely the top-two defensive teams in England, with Manchester City allowing 0.75 xG per match and Chelsea 0.78.

The Blues have been much better since Thomas Tuchel took over for Frank Lampard on Jan. 27, allowing only 0.49 xG per match, which is almost unheard of in the most competitive league in the world.

I played Under 2.5 goals as soon as I could for two reasons.

  • I have 2.01 goals projected for the Champions League final, so -118 odds gives me 3.37% of value.
  • I personally don't think those odds will get any lower given the under in the match on Saturday is -143.

Pick: Under 2.5 goals (-118)

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