Manchester City (2-2-0) and Arsenal (3-1-0) will face off today at 11:30 a.m. EDT at Emirates Stadium in London, England.
Arsenal is favored at a -115 price, with the over/under set at 2.5 (-135o / -102u) goals.
Let's get into my Man City vs. Arsenal prediction.
Man City vs. Arsenal Prediction
Picks: Arsenal ML and Both Teams To Score – Yes
My Man City vs. Arsenal best bets are on the Gunners moneyline and both teams scoring in this match.
Man City vs. Arsenal Odds
| Man City Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+0.5 -115 | 2.5 -135o / -102u | +290 |
| Arsenal Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-0.5 -120 | 2.5 -135o / -102u | -115 |
Man City vs. Arsenal Picks, Parlay
Leg 1: Arsenal to win (-118)
Leg 2: Both Teams To Score – Yes (-143)
Leg 3: Match – Over 33.5 Throw Ins (-120)
Manchester City has struggled with Premier League games immediately following European fixtures. The Citizens have lost five out of seven games like this. This includes their recent 5-1 loss against the Gunners. City’s inconsistencies after UCL matches could open the door for Arsenal to capitalise and secure a win.
Arsenal ranks second in the Premier League for direct attacks and goals per match. Additionally, Mikel Arteta's team has maintained a solid defensive record, keeping three clean sheets and conceding the second-lowest number of goals against the League (2.4 xGA).
Recent duels also show the power balance shifting towards the Gunners, who are without a loss in the last five matches across all competitions, but only two games ended in their favor after 90 minutes.
Arsenal have scored eight goals across their two home league matches so far, keeping two clean sheets, but Manchester City will be the toughest attack they have faced at the Emirates thus far.
City has scored eight goals in their five matches so far this season. Erling Haaland has been in exceptional form, with five league goals to his name already. The likes of Phil Foden, Jeremy Doku, and Tijani Reijnders have also found their stride, so Pep Guardiola’s team looks to be a creative force ahead of this tricky fixture. In fact, City have the highest xG in the Premier League with 8.47. They certainly have the tools to find the net despite Arsenal’s strong defense.
Both Teams To Score – Yes won in both matches between these sides last season.
Another good option is to bet the throw-ins. There have been 35 or more throws in all four of Arsenal’s league games, with an average of 36.75, so the line set by the bookmakers here looks low.
This selection has also won in three of Manchester City’s four league outings. There were 47 throws as they beat Manchester United at the Etihad last weekend. Over 30.5 was just one throw off winning at half-time.
Man City vs. Arsenal Projections
Projected Chance of Winning
| Man City | Draw | Arsenal |
|---|---|---|
| 26.0% | 23.4% | 50.6% |
Projected Total Goals
| Man City | Total Goals | Arsenal |
|---|---|---|
| 1.01 | 2.53 | 1.52 |
Man City vs. Arsenal Betting Analysis
The evolving rivalry between Guardiola and his former assistant Arteta adds an intriguing layer to this matchup. Having transformed Arsenal into Premier League contenders, Arteta will look to extend their unbeaten run against City, with the club's recent 5-1 home victory over the Cityzens still fresh in the memory.
Expect a fierce encounter that could shape the title race.
Arsenal beat City 5-1 in this fixture last season. Another display of that ilk would be a real statement. The Gunners are accustomed to dominating possession, but they had just 46% in that clash. The battle for the ball is likely to be hard-fought once again, but the home side has the necessary pace to exploit the spaces behind City’s defence.
This season, Guardiola’s team has opted for a more direct approach, which could also cause problems for Arsenal. Winning the one-to-one duels in advanced areas of the pitch is critical for both teams. This game could easily be decided by which attacking player gets the better of their marker.
Jeremy Doku has been a creative force for Man City lately. His direct dribbling makes him a crucial attacking outlet. For Arsenal, Victor Gyokeres’ ability to hold up play and take up key positions in front of goal could be the deciding factor.
Arsenal is the odds-on favorite for this clash against Manchester City. They are priced at a very backable 1.85/-118 on the 1x2 market, which implies a 54.1% chance of victory. Meanwhile, our internal prediction model expects a tight match, but still gives Arsenal a 50.6% chance of winning.
Man City vs. Arsenal Projected Starting Lineups
Man City
Donnarumma; Stones, Dias, Gvardiol, O’Reilly; Rodri, Silva; Reijnders, Foden, Doku; Haaland.
Arsenal
Raya; Timber, Saliba, Gabriel, Calafiori; Zubimendi, Rice; Nwaneri, Eze, Madueke: Gyökeres.
