Atletico Madrid (4-2-1) and Arsenal (7-0) will face off today at 3:00 p.m. ET at Emirates Stadium in London, England.
Arsenal is favored at a -160 price, with the over/under set at 2.5 (-111o / -115u) goals.
Let's get into my Atlético vs. Arsenal prediction.
Atlético vs. Arsenal Prediction
Pick: Both Teams to Score
My Atlético vs. Arsenal best bet is for both teams to find the back of the net.
Atlético vs. Arsenal Odds
| Atlético Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+0.5 +125 | 2.5 -111o / -115u | +450 |
| Arsenal Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-0.5 -175 | 2.5 -111o / -115u | -160 |
Atlético vs. Arsenal Picks, Parlay
Pick: Both Teams to Score
Although both goals in the first leg came from penalties, there were plenty of scoring chances created by both teams. The underlying numbers support the idea of an open game, as Atletico Madrid generated an expected goals (xG) figure of 2.21, while Arsenal finished with 1.51 xG. Mikel Arteta will expect his squad to create more in front of a home crowd, but Diego Simeone’s side has proven it can trouble the Gunners' defense.
Atletico's Champions League matches have been full of goals this season, with both teams scoring in 12 of their 14 games in the competition. During that stretch, they have scored an average of 2.43 goals per game while conceding 1.85. Their away form is particularly notable, as they score 1.86 goals per game on the road but concede 2.29. This plays directly into the hands of an Arsenal team that averages 2.33 goals per home game in this competition and needs to score to advance.
Atlético vs. Arsenal Projections
Projected Chance of Winning
| Atlético | Draw | Arsenal |
|---|---|---|
| 17.4% | 22.2% | 60.4% |
Projected Total Goals
| Atlético | Total Goals | Arsenal |
|---|---|---|
| 0.86 | 2.62 | 1.76 |
Atlético vs. Arsenal Betting Analysis
The first leg was a cautious affair, and this return fixture promises another close contest. While Arsenal has been superb at the Emirates this season, the pressure of a Champions League semifinal could create a nervous atmosphere, unlike its dominant 4-0 victory over Atletico in the group stage.
Set pieces will be a crucial element for both sides. Arsenal has scored the most goals from these situations in the Premier League, while Atletico Madrid’s 10 set-piece goals are the most in this season's Champions League. The Spanish side showed it could create chances against Arsenal's elite defense, registering 18 shots in the first leg.
The head-to-head history between these clubs is remarkably even. In four official meetings, both teams have one win, alongside two draws. A critical trend is that neither side has ever managed to win on the road. Atletico has also previously eliminated Arsenal at the semifinal stage of a European competition, ousting it from the 2017/18 Europa League. Despite Arsenal's status as favorites, Atletico's experience in these high-pressure moments should not be underestimated.
Check out the best soccer odds before making your Atletico Madrid vs Arsenal picks.
