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Bayern Munich vs. Atletico Madrid Odds, Betting Pick, Predictions for Champions League Wednesday (Oct. 21)

Bayern Munich vs. Atletico Madrid Odds, Betting Pick, Predictions for Champions League Wednesday (Oct. 21) article feature image

Jose Manuel Alvarez/Quality Sport Images/Getty Images. Pictured: Luis Suarez.

  • Bayern Munich are favored over Atletico Madrid in Wednesday Champions League group play.
  • Bayern enters this match as arguably the hottest team in the world, but their potent attack will be put to the test against Atletico's stout defense.
  • Get Brad Cunningham's full model projection and bets for Bayern vs. Atletico Madrid below.

Bayern vs. Atletico Madrid Odds

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Bayern Munich odds -195 [Bet Now]
Atletico Madrid odds +480 [Bet Now]
Draw +360 [Bet Now]
Over/Under 3 (-124/+100) 
Time Wednesday, 3:00 p.m. ET
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The defending champions of Europe are not getting an easy start in its title defense, drawing Atletico Madrid in its opening match. Bayern Munich have looked like the best team in the world over the past year, and manager Hansi Flick’s side has been fairly dominant in the Bundesliga so far this season, aside from one blip.

However, the Bavarians’ attack will be put the test against Atletico, who might be the best defensive team in the world. Atletico’s 4-4-2 formation has translated to fantastic success in the Champions League, as Diego Simeone’s team has made it to quarterfinals in five out of the last seven years.

Let’s break down this early Champions League battle in Munich:

Bayern Munich

Bayern’s path to the Champions League title last season was full of destruction and humiliation. They won their group without dropping a point and outscored their opponents, 24-5. Then, in the knockout stages, Bayern annihilated Chelsea, 7-1, on aggregate and then obliterated Lionel Messi and Barcelona, 8-2, in a quarterfinal match that will be remembered for years to come.

Bayern followed up their dismantling of Barcelona with a comprehensive 3-0 win over Lyon and finished it off with a 1-0 win over PSG in the final.

Bayern won all 15 matches that they played after the restart in all competitions en route to winning the Bundesliga, DFB Pokal and Champions League. However, they’ve looked a little vulnerable so far this Bundesliga season. They lost away to Hoffenheim, 4-1, in Matchday 2 and needed four goals, including a 93rd-minute penalty, to hold off Hertha Berlin at home before the international break.

Although Bayern have looked like the best offensive team in the world for the past year, they have not faced a defense like Atletico Madrid. In fact, Atletico knocked out Bayern in Champions League semifinals back in 2016 before losing in the final to Real Madrid.

Atletico Madrid

For those who aren’t aware, Atletico Madrid plays a different style of football than the rest of the Europe’s elite clubs. Simeone values achieving defensive perfection over a high-powered attack. For years, “Los Colchoneros” have been Europe’s most difficult defense to break down.

Keeping eight players behind the ball, Atletico create a defensive wall that works in unison to deny the opposing team space to play through the center or between the lines. This forces opponents to play through the wide areas to access the penalty area.

Atletico allowed just 0.88 xGA per 90 minutes in their patented 4-4-2 last season. In fact, it was so good that they had the best defensive xG record across Europe’s major five leagues.

Expected goals (also known as xG) is an advanced statistic that gives an indication of whether results are based on sustainable factors like a steady creation of scoring chances, or whether it is down to aspects such as luck or outstanding goalkeeping.

Although Atletico mainly focuses on defending, they have some fire power up front with Diego Costa, Joao Felix and the newly acquired Luis Suarez. If Bayern is not careful, Atletico could very easily hit them on the counter attack and walk away with a 1-0 victory.

Bayern Munich-Atletico Madrid pick

If there is one team that can shut down the hottest team in the world, it’s Atletico Madrid. They have been dominant defensively in Champions League group play, allowing only 0.84 xG per match over the last four years. They also possess the fire power up front to hit Bayern on the counter, so the German champions may be on upset watch Wednesday at home.

I only have Bayern projected at -117, so I think there is plenty of value on Atletico Madrid +1 at -103 odds at DraftKings.

The PICK: Atletico Madrid +1 (-103)

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