Champions League Round of 16: Schalke Are Trendy Underdogs vs. Manchester City
- Manchester City are heavy favorites to advance to the Champions League quarterfinals after coming back to win, 3-2, in the opening leg at Schalke.
- Public bettors are taking a shot on Schalke to pull off the miraculous upset but smart money is going the other way.
Champions League title-favorites Manchester City were certainly tested in the opening leg in Germany, and now they’re in the driver’s seat in their Round of 16 match with Schalke (4 p.m. ET on Galavision, B/R Live and fuboTV).
Betting Odds (Manchester City lead 3-2)
Manchester City escaped with a 3-2 victory in the opening leg at Schalke and are now massive -10000 favorites to advance to the quarterfinals.
Schalke held a 2-1 lead late in the match before two heart-breaking goals from City stunned the home crowd, including this gem from Leroy Sane.
Oddsmakers are expecting a second-leg blowout with Man City listed -715 to win with an over/under of 3.5.
In Champions League history, all six teams that took a 3-2 lead back home ended up advancing. All 27 teams to score 3+ goals on the road in an opening leg have also gone on to advance, another great sign for Manchester City.
Injuries + Suspensions
- Manchester City: Sergio Aguero (questionable), John Stones (questionable),Aymeric Laporte (questionable), Benjamin Mendy (questionable), Kevin De Bruyne (doubtful), Vincent Kompany (doubtful), Nicolas Otamendi (out, suspension), Fernandinho (out, suspension)
- Schalke: Daniel Caligiuri (out), Alessandro Schopf (out), Omar Mascarell (doubtful)
Betting Market Breakdown
Schalke obviously have a huge hill to climb and their form in all competitions hasn’t been great, losing three straight Bundesliga matches.
They will need to overcome the loss of key midfielder Daniel Caligiuri for the second leg, though Manchester City will also be without a number of key players all over the pitch.
Despite the injuries and suspensions, Man City originally opened at -625 and have been bet up to -750. They’ll surely be included in a majority of parlays, but public bettors are taking a shot on the Schalke moneyline (+2100) with more than 35% of straight bets on the massive underdogs.
There have been at least three goals scored in Manchester City’s last twelve Champions League matches and oddsmakers expect another on Tuesday with the over/under set at 3.5.
Nearly 90% of early wagers has come in on the over, and the market has been forced to adjust the juice from +104 to -110.
I just don’t see an upset happening after watching Schalke in recent weeks, and it’s surprising that they’re such a trendy road underdog. We should see Manchester City win by 2+ goals at home despite being a bit shorthanded.
One player that U.S.-based fans can root for is young midfielder Weston McKennie for Schalke. The 20-year-old from Texas came up through FC Dallas’ youth system and has a very bright future as a pressing workhorse that can create plays.
- Manchester City remain the favorites to hoist the Champions League trophy at +250 odds while Schalke are now 550-1 longshots.
- Ajax, Manchester United and Porto have seen their odds improve drastically after pulling off upsets in the Round of 16.
- England could be responsible for 4 of the 8 quarterfinal teams if Man City and Liverpool are able to advance.
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