Tuesday Odds, Pick, Prediction for PSG vs. Manchester City: Back Cityzens in Champions League Clash (Sept. 28)

Tuesday Odds, Pick, Prediction for PSG vs. Manchester City: Back Cityzens in Champions League Clash (Sept. 28) article feature image
Credit:

Paul Ellis/AFP via Getty Images. Pictured: Manchester City standout Riyad Mahrez, second from left, celebrates with teammates.

  • Manchester City journeys to France to battle Paris Saint-Germain in Tuesday's Champions League showdown.
  • Manager Pep Guardiola and the Cityzens are favored against Lionel Messi's powerful Ligue 1 club in the French capital.
  • Jeremy Pond breaks down the match below and details why he's backing Manchester City in this heavyweight confrontation.

PSG vs. Manchester City Odds

PSG Odds +210
Manchester City Odds +135
Draw +250
Over/Under 2.5 (-150 / +120)
Day | Time Tuesday | 3 p.m. ET
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Odds via DraftKings. Get up-to-the-minute Soccer odds here.

When it comes to star-studded matches, you won’t find anything better than what’s happening in Paris that’s part of Tuesday’s Champions League action.

Premier League juggernaut Manchester City will square off against fellow powerhouse Paris Saint-Germain in a much-anticipated Group A showdown at Parc des Princes.

Manager Pep Guardiola and the Cityzens are coming off 1-0 victory against rival Chelsea — the reigning UCL champion — last Saturday at Stamford Bridge. Now, the EPL and UCL betting favorites have a second consecutive battle against a top-5 club on the global scene.

On the other side, the Parisians enter this group-stage affair off a 2-0 win against Montpellier this past weekend. Julian Draxler put the game away for the hosts with his 89th-minute goal, which helped them open their Ligue 1 campaign with nine consecutive victories.

Manchester City is a +135 moneyline favorite against PSG despite this game taking place away from the friendly confines of Etihad Stadium.

Let’s see what might be in the cards and where the betting value can be found.

PSG Still Dominant, Yet Something Remains Missing

Like the majority of other people who follow the Parisians on a regular basis, it’s safe to say many of us expected them to steamroll everyone in their path on the domestic and global fronts.

Obviously, that hasn’t been case.

Yes, I’m well aware PSG has won eight of its last nine matches and has triumphed in every fixture so far in the French top flight. However, something just seems off.

It’s a fact Lionel Messi and the Parisians aren’t facing the same level of foes Manchester City sees in the Premier League, so maybe I’m just expecting big score lines from their new man, Neymar, and Kylian Mbappé.

The Parisians were anything but sharp in their Group A opener, settling for a disappointing 1-1 road draw against Belgian side Club Brugge. They actually lost the expected-goals battle by a 1.4-1.2 margin, which is also the first time all season they haven’t finished ahead of an opponent in the advanced metric.

In contrast, the club’s last three league foes — Lyon, Metz and Montpellier — only managed a combined 1.4 xG in their meetings.

Personally, I’m not sure what to make of those numbers other than the fact PSG was simply not as sharp as usual in the draw with Club Brugge. The Parisians are still working out the kinks of having three stars in their lineup, so that could have been a factor.

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Powerful Manchester City Playing at Different Level 

After starting the season with back-to-back 1-0 defeats against Leicester City in the FA Community Shield and EPL opener versus Tottenham Hotspur, Guardiola’s men have done a complete 180-degree turn and might be playing the best soccer of anyone on the planet.

The Parisians have won seven on the bounce, scoring at least five goals (yes… I said five goals) in four of those victories. They dropped five on Norwich City and Arsenal in consecutive fixtures in the English top flight, then scored six goals against RB Leipzig in their group-stage opener.

Wycombe was the other victim of six Manchester City goals last week in a Carabao Cup drubbing.

Even though putting together a complete performance against Chelsea was huge, you have to have think the Cityzens’ confidence will be at a high level after finding success against the Parisians in the semifinal round of last season’s UCL competition.

Manchester City earned a 2-1 win at Parc des Princes in the opening leg, thanks to second-half goals from Kevin De Bruyne and Riyad Mahrez, before putting PSG away in a 2-0 home shutout.

As for the visiting side’s metrics, the reigning EPL champion has been brilliant. Manchester City has amassed 13.9 xG and yielded just 3.0 xGA through six league fixtures.

So, just how good is that xGA stat line? The next closest teams are Crystal Palace (5.8 xGA) and Brighton & Hove Albion (5.9xGA), who actually played to a 1-1 draw in Monday’s match.

Betting Analysis & Pick

You have to love the fact we’re getting a match featuring these two absurdly talented sides in the group stage. However, Manchester City is the deserved favorite despite the game being played on French soil. The Cityzens are the deeper, healthier and stronger team despite PSG’s three-headed monster.

That said, I’m backing Manchester City on a Draw No Bet wager at -140 odds via DraftKings as my top selection. Guardiola’s outfit is the more gifted group from front to back, plus its fitness level is well ahead of PSG at this moment.

I fully expect the Cityzens to deliver a thorough, professional performance at Parc des Princes and display why I consider them one of the top two clubs in the world.

If you’re looking for a player prop to jump on, sprinkle a little on Gabriel Jesus to score anytime at +225 odds. That’s pretty good value for a player who scored the winner against Chelsea and seems to be finding his finishing groove.

Pick: Manchester City — Draw No Bet (-140)

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