Tuesday Champions League Odds, Pick & Prediction for PSG vs. RB Leipzig: Total Has Value

Tuesday Champions League Odds, Pick & Prediction for PSG vs. RB Leipzig: Total Has Value article feature image
Credit:

Franck Fife/AFP via Getty Images. Pictured: Paris Saint-Germain star Kylian Mbappé.

  • PSG will host RB Leipzig on Tuesday afternoon in a Champions League showdown.
  • Paris Saint-Germain, led by Kylian Mbappé and Lionel Messi, will be without star forward Neymar (groin injury).
  • Jeremy Pond breaks down PSG vs. RB Leipzig below.

PSG vs. RB Leipzig Odds

PSG Odds -200
RB Leipzig Odds +500
Draw +370
Over/Under 3.5 (+120 / -140)
Day | Time Tuesday | 3 p.m. ET
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European stalwarts in very different Champions League positions square off Tuesday when Paris Saint-Germain hosts RB Leipzig at Parc des Princes.

The host side, which hopes it can build off its resounding 2-0 triumph over Manchester City in its previous Group A contest, sits tied atop the table with four points with surprise Belgian outfit Club Brugge. The Parisians are in first place, though, as it holds the tiebreaker on goal difference through two games.

However, PSG was dealt a blow in the lead-up to this affair when the club announced Neymar would miss out on the fixture due to injury. The Brazilian has been dealing with a groin injury that sidelined him from the Parisians’ match this past Friday against Angers in Ligue 1 play.

PSG announce Neymar will miss their Champions League match against RB Leipzig tomorrow night ❌ pic.twitter.com/yIf2XNgt2b

— Goal (@goal) October 18, 2021

As for the Red Bulls, things have gone quite poorly out of the gate for the Bundesliga team. They opened UCL competition with an embarrassing 6-3 defeat against Manchester City at Etihad Stadium before enduring a 2-1 home loss against Club Brugge.

Current odds have PSG sitting at a comfortable -200 odds on the three-way moneyline, but that number has ticked down since it was made public that Neymar would be unavailable. Oddsmakers have given RB Leipzig little chance to win this match outright, with the German side a firm +500 ML underdog.

Let’s take a look at this confrontation and see what could be on deck.

Losing Neymar Tough, But Far From Crushing for PSG

Obviously, the absence of Neymar does take a little bit of bite out of the powerful Parisians’ offense, but it isn’t like the garage is bare. Sure, the Ferrari is out of commission, but the Bugatti and McLaren are still raring to go.

Mbappé has led the PSG line thus far, racking a team-best five goals (four coming from the penalty spot) to give him 0.63 xG per 90 minutes in Ligue 1 play. Where the French star has truly given the Parisians more going forward is via his team-leading five assists, putting him at 0.34 xA/90 minutes in the French top flight.

So, while Messi has delivered numbers (one goal in five appearances) well below what you’d expect in limited action, Mbappé (five goals and seven assists through 12 games across competitions) has proven he’s the most valuable player on this squad.

However, despite the resounding win over Manchester City in its previous UCL match, PSG continues to endure defensive lapses in league action. And for a team loaded with talent all over the field, it has to be somewhat concerning for manager Mauricio Pochettino.

The Parisians, who needed a late penalty from Mbappé to secure a 2-1 home win against Angers this past week, were quite poor in a stunning 2-0 defeat at Rennes two games back. They’ve conceded at least one goal in four of their last five Ligue 1 fixtures, so they really need to tighten things up on the defensive front and make sure the Man City shutout wasn’t an anomaly.

RB Leipzig Seeking Consistency Ahead of Match

When Jesse Marsch took the reins at RB Leipzig, I’m pretty sure he didn’t expect life to start the way it has with one of Europe’s most decorated clubs. The former New York Red Bulls and RB Salzburg manager has endured a rocky start, with the club going 4-5-2 (W-L-D) in 11 matches across all competitions.

They’ve been taken to the woodshed by Manchester City as we know, as well as Bayern Munich (5-1), and struggled mightily at times on defense. Shutouts are few and far between for the RB Leipzig back line, which has conceded at least one goal in six of its last eight games overall.

Offensively, the Red Bulls have been strong in both actual and expected goals, though. They’ve scored at least one goal in nine of 11 fixtures, including five where they’ve finished with three or more goals. As for the xG totals, RB Leipzig has wound up with 1.7 xG or better in four of its last five, highlighted by 3.8 xG in a 6-0 shellacking of Hertha and 2.5 xG in a 3-0 win against Bochum.

Marsch sent his men out in a 4-2-3-1 formation against Manchester City, so I expect we a similar approach against PSG in this spot. The Red Bulls will do everything to keep 10 men behind the ball, with the hope of springing plenty of counterattacking opportunities against a team more focused on scoring goals than earning clean sheets.

Betting Analysis & Pick

What we have here are offenses that have proven they can put up goals at any time against any opponent on both the domestic and international fronts. And defensively, neither are what I would bill as first class in any capacity.

For that reason, I’m taking a swing on a Same Game Parlay via DraftKings that features Both Teams To Score paired with the total going over 2.5 goals at -130 odds as my top pick. I truly believe PSG will defeat RB Leipzig on the Parc des Princes pitch in the French capital, but its sketchy, inconsistent defense should allow the visiting side to find at least one goal in this affair.

Keep in mind RB Leipzig was able to put three goals past Manchester City, albeit in that lopsided defeat. However, the fact is they scored multiple goals against arguably the best defense in the world on its home soil.

Throw in the fact my colleague, BJ Cunningham, has PSG (1.50 xG) and RB Leipzig (1.25 xG) for a 2.75 total xG projection and I like my chances of hitting this wager.

Pick: Same Game Parlay — Both Teams To Score (Yes) & Total Over 2.5 Goals (-130)

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