Chelsea and Manchester City will face off in the 145th FA Cup Final on Saturday, May 16, 2026. The match kicks off at 10:00 AM EST at the iconic Wembley Stadium in London, England.
With Manchester City chasing another domestic trophy and Chelsea desperate to salvage a difficult season, this final has all the makings of a tense affair.
Let’s get into our Chelsea vs Manchester City prediction.
Chelsea vs Manchester City Prediction
Our main Chelsea vs Manchester City prediction is a combination bet: Manchester City to win the match in 90 minutes and the total goals to be under 3.5.
Chelsea vs. Man City Odds
| Chelsea Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
2.5 -145o / -115u | +370 | |
| Man City Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
2.5 -145o / -115u | -140 | |
Chelsea vs Manchester City Picks
Chelsea's recent form is a major cause for concern. The Blues have only managed two victories in their last 11 games across all competitions. While both of those wins came in the FA Cup, their overall performance has been poor, highlighted by a recent 3-0 home defeat to this same Manchester City side.
Their Premier League position has cratered from a potential Champions League spot in January to ninth place, making this final their last chance for a meaningful achievement this season.
Manchester City, in contrast, enters this final in formidable shape. Pep Guardiola’s team has lost just one of its last 33 domestic matches, winning 25 of them. They have demonstrated an ability to handle a demanding schedule while competing on multiple fronts. Offensively, they are a powerhouse, averaging 2.34 goals per domestic game and leading the Premier League in expected goals (xG).
History also favors a lower-scoring contest. FA Cup finals at the new Wembley Stadium have historically been tight, with 16 of the last 19 finals featuring fewer than four goals in regulation. Given the high stakes, a cagey match is likely, which aligns well with the "Under 4 goals" part of the pick. Combining this trend with City’s clear superiority in form and head-to-head record makes this a strong value play.
For the second pick, we focus on City's tendency to start fast. They have scored more first-half goals than any other team in the Premier League this season. Conversely, Chelsea has struggled early in games and has not led at halftime in any of its last seven matches. City has not trailed at the half in any of its last 37 domestic contests, making a wager on them to lead at the break a logical choice.
Pick:Manchester City to Win & Under 3.5 Total Goals
Chelsea vs Manchester City Betting Analysis
The head-to-head record between these two clubs tells a story of complete dominance by Manchester City. City is currently on a 13-match unbeaten streak against Chelsea, winning 10 of those encounters. Chelsea's last victory over City was in the 2021 Champions League final, and they have struggled to find an answer for Guardiola's system ever since.
Defensive solidity has been a key feature in recent matchups. "Both Teams to Score – No" has been a winning bet in four of the last six meetings. In their last five games against each other, Chelsea has only scored two goals, while City has netted 10. This includes City keeping three clean sheets, two of which were at Stamford Bridge. When these teams met in the 2024 FA Cup semi-final, a single goal from Bernardo Silva was enough to give City the win.
From a tactical standpoint, expect Manchester City to control possession and dictate the pace of the game. They will likely use their dynamic wingers to stretch Chelsea's defense. Chelsea, under their interim manager, will probably set up in a defensive, counter-attacking formation, hoping to absorb pressure and exploit any opportunities in transition.
However, City's high press and tactical discipline will make it difficult for Chelsea to build any sustained rhythm.
Given City’s relentless attack and Chelsea's recent struggles, another controlled victory for the Manchester side seems the most probable outcome.
Check out the best soccer odds before making your Chelsea vs Manchester City picks.
