Denmark vs. Tunisia Odds, Picks & Predictions | Match Preview

Denmark vs. Tunisia Odds

Tuesday, Nov. 22

8 a.m. ET

FS1

They come into the World Cup after winning their World Cup Qualifying group in convincing fashion. Denmark also went to the semifinals of the Euros in the Summer of 2021, losing to England in extra time.

The Danes are one of the dark horses to potentially win the World Cup, but to do so, they will want to get all three points against Tunisia.

Tunisia are now playing in their sixth World Cup after qualifying for the 2018 World Cup in Russia. They beat Mali over two legs in the World Cup Qualification playoffs, but this is one of the weakest teams in the World Cup field in terms of talent. 

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Denmark an All-Around Quality Side

Denmark going to the Euro semis was absolutely not a fluke because this is a team that has a ton of talent, has been playing together for a long time and are well drilled in what they want to do tactically. 

The reason the Danes are so good is because of how good they are defensively. The experienced Kasper Schmiehael is in goal and their backline of Joakim Maele, Andreas Christiansen, Joakim Anderson and Rasmus Kristensen all have a ton of experience playing at the top level in Europe and throughout World Cup Qualifying.

Having Pierre-Emile Højbjerg as the holding defensive midfielder also helps and Thomas Delany is a naturally central midfielder that does a lot of defensive work as well. 

This allows the Denmark front line to press high and put a lot of pressure on their opponents. At the Euros they led the tournament in high turnovers at 56 and had a PPDA of 12.9, which was fifth-best in the tournament.

In possession, Denmark typically like to create numerical overloads in the center of the pitch to force the opponent to play more compact, which allows Maele and Kristensen to get forward in the attack and supply a lot of crosses into the box. 

The one problem the Danes have is turning final third possession into high-quality chances. A front line of Mikel Damsgaard, Kasper Dolberg and Andreas Skov Olsen is not be the best in terms of finishing and having to break down a deep low block makes things even more difficult. 

Tunisia a Standard Defensive Side

Tunisia won their qualifying group over Zambia, Equatorial Guinea and Mauritania, but only had a +3.32 xGD in those six matches. Then, they made it to the quarterfinals of the Africa Cup of Nations in January, losing to Burkina Faso 1-0. 

An edge over Mali in a two-leg playoff to reach their second straight World Cup got Tunisia here, although they weren’t able generate many high-quality chances on net, as they only created 0.73 xG over the two meetings. 

In terms of talent, there are not a lot of guys playing at the highest level for football at the moment. Wahbi Khazri (Montpellier) has been the main man upfront for a long time, making 71 international appearances and scoring 24 goals.

They have Ellyes Skhiri, who is an outstanding defensive midfielder for Koln in the German Bundesliga, along with a center back pairing of Dylan Bronn (Salernitana) and Montassar Talbi (Lorient), who are playing in one of Europe’s top five leagues. 

Tunisia also made a managerial change after the Africa Cup of Nations, promoting Jalel Kadri after sacking Mondher Kebaier after their loss in the quarterfinal to Burkina Faso. 

They mainly set up in a 4-3-3 throughout the Africa Cup of Nations with Skhiri as the holding midfielder. Tunisia were possession-dominant in matches against Gambia and Mauritania, but against Mali and Nigeria, Tunisia tended to sit a little deeper, looking to make quick transition passes to get the ball forward on the counterattack.

For Tunisia to be successful in this match they are going to have to sit deep or press when their opponent enters their final third, and then look to quickly transition the ball up to Khazri to make some magic happen. 

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Denmark vs. Tunisia Prediction

Tunisia are likely going to sit deep to try and absorb Denmark's attack and then look to counter. It's likely they will have their eye on the next match against Australia as their best chance to get three points and get out of the group. Plus, the amount of xG they have created against good competition is not encouraging.

Denmark are such a well-organized side that is elite in so many areas – especially their defense – but the finishing ability of their front three is a major concern when you are trying to break down a low block.

I only have 2.17 goals projected for this match, so I like the value on the under in this match.

The Pick: Under 2.5 (-150) 

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