European Soccer Forecast: Projected Betting Odds & Totals for Weekend Premier League, Bundesliga Serie A & More (May 21-23)
Jose Breton/Pics Action/NurPhoto via Getty Images. Pictured: Luis Suarez.
We made it. It’s the final weekend of the European club soccer calendar. and there is still plenty to play for across Europe’s major five leagues.
Here is what’s at stake this weekend:
Chelsea, Liverpool and Leicester City are all still alive for a Champions League position coming into the final day. The tiebreaker is goal differential, so we have the potential for some chaos with these three teams.
West Ham and Tottenham are likely the only two battling it out for the final Europa League spot, with Tottenham needing to beat Leicester and for West Ham to lose to Southampton at home.
All of the Champions League and Europa League spots have been decided in Germany, but the relegation battle is heated heading into the final day. The Bundesliga tiebreaker is goal differential and the team that finishes in 16th plays a two-leg playoff against the playoff winner from the second division. So Koln, Werder Bremen, and Arminia Bielefeld are all in play for all three finishing spots.
AC Milan, Napoli and Juventus are all still alive for the final two Champions League spots in Italy. Serie A’s tiebreaker is head to head points, so AC Milan holds the tiebreaker over Napoli and Juventus, while Napoli and Juventus are tied on head-to-head points and goal differential. Therefore, the third tiebreaker is overall goal differential, meaning Juventus need to win and hope that either Napoli or AC Milan lose or draw.
The La Liga title has come down to the final day between Atletico Madrid and Real Madrid. The La Liga tiebreaker is head-to-head points, which Real Madrid holds after taking four points from their two meetings this season. So, Real Madrid need to win and hope Atletico does not on the road at Real Valladolid.
Huesca, Elche, Real Valladolid and Eibar are all still capable of survival. Eibar is pretty much done and needs a miracle of situations to happen for them to somehow jump three spots into 17th place. Huesca is in prime position to survive because they hold the tiebreaker over both Elche and Real Valladolid.
The Ligue 1 title in France is still up for grabs between Lille and PSG. It’s pretty simple for Lille: win and the title is yours, but a draw or loss opens the door for PSG to claim their fifth straight championship with a win.
As for the final Champions League spot, Monaco hold a slim advantage over Lyon, although Lyon hold the tiebreaker between the two.
In terms of final-day drama, France is the most interesting of any of the five major leagues.
A whopping six teams could finish as the one that is relegated in Ligue 1. Nantes’ -7 goal differential makes everything incredibly interesting, especially since Reims is playing Bordeaux and Strasbourg is playing Lorient.
I will say as a disclaimer, there are going to be a lot of lines that are overinflated lines due to one team playing for something, while their opponent has nothing to play for. My projections and modeling in general does not measure the motivation level of each team. So, I would keep that in mind before placing a wager.
You can use these projections to identify betting value on current lines, plus follow me in The Action Network App to see any bets I make throughout the week.
Premier League Notes
- Aston Villa vs. Chelsea: Chelsea have two opportunities to qualify for the Champions League next season. They can either win on Sunday against Aston Villa or win the Champions League final next Saturday. If the Blues draw or lose, their only hope will be that either Liverpool or Leicester drops points.
- Leicester vs. Tottenham: This is the match with the most at stake on Sunday. For the second straight season, Leicester’s Champions League hopes come down to the final day and they need some help. Both Chelsea and Liverpool have superior goal differentials, so the Foxes need to win and hope Liverpool or Chelsea draw/lose. Tottenham, meanwhile, is three points behind West Ham for the final Europa League spot, but does hold the tiebreaker over the Hammers. Spurs need to win and hope West Ham lose at home to Southampton.
Premier League Injury News
- Arsenal: David Luiz (CB) and Hector Bellerin (RB) are questionable to play against Brighton.
- Aston Villa: Ross Barkley (CAM) and Matty Cash (RB) are out against Chelsea.
- Brighton: Neal Maupay (ST), Joel Veltman (CB), Danny Welbeck (ST), Davy Propper (CAM), Joel Veltman (CB), Solly March (LM) and Tariq Lamptey (RB) are out against Arsenal.
- Burnley: Nick Pope (GK) is questionable to play against Sheffield United. Robbie Brady (LM) is out.
- Chelsea: Kai Havertz (RM) and N’Golo Kante (CM) are questionable to play against Aston Villa. Andreas Christensen (CB) is out.
- Crystal Palace: Mamadou Sahko (CB) and Eberechi Eze (CM) are out against Liverpool. Christian Benteke (ST) and Luka Milivojevic (CM) are questionable.
- Everton: James Rodriguez (CAM) is questionable to play against Manchester City.
- Fulham: Aleksandar Mitrovic (ST) and Harrison Reed (CM) are out against Newcastle.
- Leicester: James Justin (LB), Harvey Barnes (LM) and Jonny Evans (CB) are out against Tottenham.
- Liverpool: Diogo Jota (LW), Jordan Henderson (CM), Joel Matip (CB), Joe Gomez (CB) and Virgil van Dijk (CB) are out against Burnley. James Milner (CM) is questionable.
- Manchester City: Ikay Gundogan (CM),Sergio Agüero (ST), Kyle Walker (RB) and Raheem Sterling (LW) are questionable to play against Everton. Joao Cancelo (LB) is out.
- Manchester United: Harry McGuire (CB) and Anthony Martial (ST) are out against Wolves. Scott McTominay (CM) and Fred (CM) are questionable.
- Newcastle: Callum Wilson (ST), Jamaal Lascelles (CB), Joelinton (ST) and Karl Darlow (GK) and are out against Fulham. Allan Saint-Maximin (CAM) is questionable.
- Sheffield United: Ethan Ampadu (CB), Sander Berge (CM), Oliver McBurnie (ST) and Jack O’Connell (CB) are out against Burnley.
- Southampton: Ryan Bertrand (LB), Oriol Romeu (CM) and Che Adams (ST) are out against West Ham.
- Tottenham: Ben Davies (LB) is out against Leicester.
- West Brom: Branislav Ivanovic (CB) is out against Leeds.
- West Ham: Arthur Masuaku (RB), Lukasz Fabianski (GK) and Manuel Lanzini (CAM) are out against Southampton.
- Wolves: Raul Jimenez (ST), Daniel Pondence (ST) and Pedro Neto (LW) are out against Manchester United.
Bundesliga Injury News
- Arminia Bielefeld: Anderson Lucoqui (LB) is out against Vfb Stuttgart.
- Augsburg: Ruben Vargas (LM) and Felix Uduokhai (CB) are out against Bayern Munich.
- Bayer Leverkusen: Lars Bender (CDM), Daley Sinkgraven (LB), Lucas Alario (ST) and Leon Bailey (RW) are out against Dortmund.
- Bayern Munich: Leon Goretzka (CM) and Douglas Costa (CAM) are out against Augsburg.
- Borussia Dortmund: Marwin Hitz (GK) and Axel Witsel (CM) are out against Leverkusen.
- Frankfurt: Djibril Sow (CM) and Jabez Makanda (CAM) are out against Freiburg.
- Freiburg: Roland Sallai (CAM) is out against Frankfurt.
- Hertha Berlin: Krzysztof Piatek (ST), Matheus Cunha (CM) and Matteo Guendouzi (CM) are out against Hoffenheim.
- Hoffenheim: Christoph Baumgartner (LM), Chris Richards (CB) and Oliver Baumann (GK) are out against Hertha Berlin.
- Koln: Jonas Hector (CM) and Ismail Jakobs (CM) are out against Schalke.
- Mainz: Robin Zentner (GK) is out against Wolfsburg.
- RB Leipzig: Peter Gulacsi (GK) and Tyler Adams (CM) are out against Union Berlin.
- Schalke: Benjamin Stambouli (CB), Omar Mascarell (CM), Klass Jan Huntelaar (ST) and Matija Nastasic (CB) are out against Koln.
- Union Berlin: Robert Andrich (CM) and Grischa Promel (CM) are out against RB Leipzig.
- Vfb Stuttgart: Wataru Endo (CM), Silas Wamangituka (RM), Tanguy Coulibaly (RM) and Konstantinos Mavropanos (CB) are out against Arminia Bielefeld. Orel Mangala (CM) is questionable.
- Werder Bremen: Milos Veljkovic (CB) is out against Gladbach.
- Wolfsburg: Renato Steffen (LM) is out against Mainz.
Serie A Notes
- Atalanta vs. AC Milan: It’s pretty simple for AC Milan: Win and you are in the Champions League. The Rossoneri have the tiebreaker over Juventus and Napoli. Atalanta, meanwhile, have already qualified for the Champions League since they hold the tiebreaker over Napoli and Juventus. Atalanta drilled AC Milan 3-0 in these teams’ last meeting. It will be interesting to see Atalanta’s motivation level in a game in which they have nothing to play for.
Serie A Injury News
- AC Milan: Alexis Saelemaekers (RM) and Zlatan Ibrahimovic (ST) are out against Atalanta.
- Bologna: Aaron Hickey (LB) is questionable to play against Juventus.
- Crotone: Adam Ounes (ST) is out against Fiorentina.
- Genoa: Milan Badelj (CM), Davide Biraschi (RM) and Domenico Criscito (CB) are questionable to play against Cagliari.
- Inter: Arturo Vidal (CM) is questionable to play against Udinese.
- Juventus: Leonardo Bonucci (CB) is out against Bologna.
- Lazio: Andreas Pereira (CM), Lucas Leiva (CM) and Joaquin Correa (ST) are out against Sassuolo.
- Napoli: Kalidou Koulibaly (CB) is out against Fiorentina.
- Parma: Simone Iacoponi (CB) and Dennis Man (RW) are questionable to play against Sassuolo. Yordan Osorio (CB) is out.
- Roma: Lorenzo Pellegrini (CAM), Jordan Veretout (CM) and Leonardo Spinazzola (LM) are questionable to play against Lazio. Roger Ibañez (CB) is out.
- Spezia: Matteo Ricci (CM) is out against Roma.
- Udinese: Gerard Deulofeu (ST) is out against Inter. Ignacio Pussetto (ST) is questionable.
La Liga Injury News
- Athletic Bilbao: Ander Capa (RB), Yuri Berchiche (LB) and Iker Muniain (LW) are questionable to play against Elche.
- Atletico Madrid: Thomas Lemar (LM) is out against Real Valladolid.
- Barcelona: Frankie De Jong (CM), Marc-Andre ter Stegen (GK), Philippe Coutinho (CAM) and Ansu Fati (LW) are out against Celta Vigo. Sergi Roberto (RB) is questionable.
- Cadiz: Salvi Sanchez (RM), Juan Cala (CB) and Alex Fernández (LM) are out against Levante.
- Celta Vigo: Renato Tapia (CM), Ruben Blanco (GK), Iago Aspas (ST) and Jeison Murillo (CB) are questionable to play against Real Betis.
- Elche: Johan Mojica (LB) is questionable to play against Athletic Bilbao. Raul Guti (CM) is out.
- Granada: Kenedy (LM) and Luis Milla (CAM) are questionable to play against Getafe.
- Levante: Nikola Vukcevic (CM) is questionable to play against Cadiz. Sergio Postigo (CB) is out.
- Osasuna: Nacho Vidal (RB) is out against Real Sociedad. Jonathan Calleri (ST) is questionable.
- Real Madrid: Tony Kroos (CM), Daniel Carvajal (RB), Lucas Vazquez (RW), Raphael Varane (CB) and Sergio Ramos (CB) are questionable to play against Villarreal. Ferland Mendy (LB) is out.
- Real Valladolid: Sergi Guardiola (ST) is out against Atletico Madrid. Fabian Orellana (RM) is questionable.
- Real Sociedad: Mikel Merino (CM) is out against Osasuna.
- Villarreal: Samuel Chukwueze (RM) is out against Real Madrid.
Ligue 1 Injury News
- Angers: Souleyman Doumbia (LB), Ismael Traore (CB), Rachid Alioui (CM) and Sofiane Boufal (LM) are out against Lille.
- Bordeaux: Haten Ben Arfa (CAM), Samuel Kalu (LM), Otávio (CDM) and Laurent Koscielny (CB) are out against Reims.
- Brest: Christophe Herelle (CB) is out against PSG.
- Dijon: Sacha Boey (RB) and Wesley Lautoa (CM) are out against Saint Etienne.
- Lille: Jose Fonte (CB) is out against Angers.
- Lorient: Jonathan Delaplace (RB) is out against Strasbourg.
- Marseille: Florian Thauvin (RM) is out against Metz.
- Metz: Opa Nguette (LW), Aaron Leya Iseka (ST) and Farid Boulaya (CAM) are out against Marseille.
- Montpellier: Florent Mollet (CM), Jordan Ferri (CM) and Jonas Omlin (GK) are out against Nantes.
- Nice: Myziane Maolida (RW) and Alexis Claude-Maurice (CM) are out against Lyon.
- Nimes: Anthony Brinacon (CB) is out against Rennes.
- PSG: Layvin Kurzawa (LB) and Marco Verratti (CM) are out against Brest.
- Reims: Valon Berisha (CM) and Yunis Abdelhamid (CB) are out against PSG.
- Rennes: Damian Da Silva (CB) and Flavien Tait (CM) are out against Nimes.
- Saint Etienne: Harold Moukoudi (CB) and Jessy Moulin (GK) are out against Dijon.
- Strasbourg: Jean-Eudes Aholou (CM) is out against Lorient. Matz Sels (GK) is questionable.