European Soccer Odds, Picks, Predictions: Our Favorite Parlay, Featuring Paris Saint-Germain & Napoli (Oct. 3)
Patrick Hertzog/AFP via Getty Images. Pictured: Paris Saint-Germain star Kylian Mbappe.
If you’re new to our in-depth coverage of global soccer, we have a feature that will appear on The Action Network that has two of our soccer analysts putting together their best bets to create a parlay with plenty of betting value.
Soccer analysts Jeremy Pond and BJ Cunningham have you covered with the latest two-leg entry, targeting matches in Ligue 1 (France) and Serie A (Italy) ahead of domestic club soccer going on hiatus for the international break.
Pond and Cunningham feel good about the latest entries in our featured parlay, which come from games featuring Rennes vs. Paris Saint-Germain and Fiorentina vs. Napoli for the wager.
Check out their betting insight and the price they’re getting on the parlay at BetMGM ahead of the latest contest on the European landscape.
Rennes vs. PSG Odds
|Over/Under||3.5 (+130 / -185)|
|Day | Time||Sunday | 7 a.m. ET|
|How To Watch||beIN SPORTS | fuboTV|
|Odds via BetMGM. Get up-to-the-minute Soccer odds here.|
Jeremy Pond: Paris Saint-Germain enters this Ligue 1 clash fresh off its huge victory against Premier League giant Manchester City during midweek Champions League action at Parc des Princes.
Lionel Messi delivered his first goal for the Parisians, which was an absolute beauty from the world’s best player, to give them a big win for both points and building confidence against a club of Manchester City’s caliber.
Now, PSG journeys to Rennes looking to secure its 11th consecutive win in the French top flight. When looking at the history between these outfits, Kylian Mbappé and the visitors have dominated affairs, going unbeaten in 13 of their last 14 meetings with Les Rennais.
Rennes went all out in Thursday’s Europa Conference League match, sending out a first-choice Starting XI in its 2-1 road triumph against Eredivisie side Vitesse. Since Les Rennais has obviously made the Europa competition priority, you’d have to think some weary legs — combined with the travel and ultra-quick turnaround — won’t bode well for the +425 underdogs.
So, I’m going to lay the insane amount of juice and back PSG on the moneyline at -185 odds as my part of this parlay. Look, there’s no way in any capacity I’m backing the Parisians at this price under any other circumstance, but all we need is a win to get us to BJ’s leg for a shot at a solid plus-money profit.
And that’s what we’re all looking for, my friends. A profit. It’s that simple.
Pond’s Pick: PSG ML (-185)
Fiorentina vs. Napoli
|Over/Under||2.5 (-130 / +105)|
|Day | Time||Sunday | 12 p.m. ET|
|How To Watch||Paramount+|
|Odds via BetMGM. Get up-to-the-minute Soccer odds here|
BJ Cunningham: Fiorentina has run really hot to start the season, picking up 12 points from their first six matches. However, that streak is bound to come to an end soon.
Fiorentina has had a lot of penalty luck on their side, as three of their nine goals have come from the penalty spot and they’ve only created 5.1 non-penalty expected goals, which is 18th in the Italian top flight. They’re also 15th in shot-creating actions, so they’re going to have a lot of trouble creating anything against the best defense in Italy.
Napoli might the best team in Europe so far, winning their first six matches by a 16-2 combined scoreline. They’ve been incredible defensively, as they lead Serie A with 3.3 xGA and 3.1 post-shot xGA, so the chances they’re allowing are not even high quality. They’ve also allowed the fewest touches in their own penalty area by a mile, so I don’t know how Fiorentina is going to create anything against them.
Offensively, Napoli has been flying high as well, as they’re top two in Serie A in xG, shot-creating actions, touches in the opponents’ final third and carries into the opponents’ penalty area, per fbref.com.
The reason for that is Napoli switched to a 4-3-3 formation under new manager Luciano Spalletti, which has seen fantastic results considering they have a +8.57 xGDiff and average 2.17 xG per 90 minutes when using it.
I have Napoli projected at -134 odds, so I think there’s great value on them at +100 on BetMGM and will make them my top selection in this leg of the play.
Cunningham’s Pick: Napoli ML (+100)
Pond & Cunningham Parlay
PSG (-185) & Napoli (+100) at +208 odds via BetMGM