Two European powerhouses, France and Spain, are set to clash today in a massive World Cup semifinal, with kick-off scheduled for 3:00 p.m. ET at Dallas Stadium in Arlington, Texas.
France is favored at a +135 price, with the over/under set at 2.5 (-115o / -105u) goals.
Let's get into my France vs Spain prediction.
France vs Spain Prediction
Picks: Kylian Mbappe To Score (+110) & Both Teams to Score – Yes (-165)
My France vs Spain best bets are for both Mbappe and both teams to score.
France vs Spain Odds
| Spain Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+0.5 -160 | 2.5 -115o / -105u | +225 |
| France Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-0.5 +130 | 2.5 -115o / -105u | +135 |
France vs Spain World Cup Preview
France is aiming to reach their third consecutive World Cup final, a historic milestone previously achieved by Brazil between 1994 and 2002 and West Germany between 1982 and 1990. They enter this semifinal as the only team in the tournament to have won all six of their matches in normal time.
Didier Deschamps' side features the most ruthless attack at the 2026 World Cup, leading all teams in expected goals with a 14.34 xGF (Expected Goals For), which they have clinically turned into 16 actual goals across their six matches.
Luis de la Fuente’s side enters the semifinal on the longest unbeaten streak in the nation's history, having gone 36 consecutive matches without a loss in normal time (26 wins, 10 draws).
La Roja possesses the most statistically robust defensive record at the 2026 World Cup, having conceded just a single goal across their six matches (a late consolation in their 2-1 quarter-final victory over Belgium).
Spain have allowed a mere 1.84 xGA (expected goals against) in six matches, the lowest in the competition with an average of 0.31 xGA per 90.
Spain actually entered the 2026 World Cup as the outright tournament favorites with the shortest odds. However, after their Matchday 1 slip-up against Cape Verde, France leapfrogged them and now command odds implying a 40% probability to win the entire World Cup.
France vs Spain Picks, Parlay
- Kylian Mbappe To Score (+110)
- Both Teams to Score – Yes (-165)
Mbappe enters this match in sensational form, leading the Golden Boot race with eight goals in six appearances.
The French superstar has scored in five of his six matches at the tournament and has a remarkable career record of 20 goals in 20 appearances at the global showpiece. He has become the only player since 1996 to register 10 or more goal involvements in back-to-back editions, underscoring his reliability in the biggest moments.
While Spain boasts the most formidable defense in the competition, having conceded just one goal, they have yet to face an attack with the quality of France.
The French side leads all teams in expected goals (xG) with 14.34 and has converted that into 16 actual goals.
With Ousmane Dembele also contributing five goals, France possesses a multi-faceted threat that can challenge even the most organized backline.
Even in France's recent losses to Spain, Mbappe managed to get on the scoresheet and registered nine shots across two games, proving he can create chances against this opponent.
Spain, meanwhile, rides a historic 36-match unbeaten streak in normal time. They have been defensively elite, allowing a competition-low 1.84 expected goals against (xGA).
However, France is the only team to have won all six of their matches in normal time at this tournament, showcasing a level of consistency that will test Spain's resilience.
Given Mbappe's incredible form and France's potent attack, backing him to score offers solid value.
While both teams have been superb at preventing goals, their recent head-to-head history suggests an open, attacking affair.
The last three competitive meetings between these nations have seen both teams score, with an incredible average of 5.0 goals per game. This includes a wild 5-4 Spain victory in the 2025 Nations League and a 2-1 Spanish win in the Euro 2024 semifinal.
That history makes the Both Teams to Score market particularly appealing. France has scored in every match of this tournament and has netted over 1.5 goals in five of their six contests.
With world-class attackers like Mbappe, Dembele, Lamine Yamal, and Dani Olmo on the field, it is difficult to imagine a scenario where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet, especially given their recent history of high-scoring encounters.
France vs Spain Starting Lineups
France Expected Lineup (4-2-3-1)
Goalkeeper: Maignan
Defenders: Kounde, Saliba, Upamecano, Digne
Midfielders: Rabiot, Tchouameni or Kone, Doue
Forwards: Olise, Dembele, Mbappe
Spain Expected Lineup (4-3-3)
Goalkeeper: Simon
Defenders: Porro, Cubarsi, Laporte, Cucurella
Midfielders: Rodri, Pedri, Olmo
Forwards: Yamal, Oyarzabal, Baena
France vs Spain Weather
According to Google Weather, the forecast in Dallas features a high temperature of 88°F. The daytime will bring scattered thunderstorms with a 25% chance of rain. Winds will be blowing at 11 mph from the southeast with 73% humidity.
