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Reigning Premier League champions Arsenal (5-1-0) travel to face Nottingham Forest (1-3-2) at City Ground, with kickoff scheduled for 11:30 a.m. ET.
Forest sit 15th and will look for a major upset against an Arsenal side sitting second in the league standings.
Arsenal is favored at a -165 price, with the over/under set at 2.5 (-110o / -115u) goals.
Let's get into our Arsenal vs. Nottingham prediction, and be sure to download the Action Network app for more picks and analysis.
Arsenal vs. Nottingham Prediction
Pick: Under 2.5 Goals (-115)
Our Arsenal vs. Nottingham best bet is the under. Forest has been defensively organized at home, while Arsenal's league matches have seen fewer goals than the competition average.
Arsenal vs. Nottingham Odds
| Arsenal Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-0.5 -175 | 2.5 -110o / -115u | -165 |
| Nottingham Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+0.5 +125 | 2.5 -110o / -115u | +500 |
Arsenal vs. Nottingham Picks, Parlay
Leg 1: Under 2.5 Goals (-115, DraftKings)
Leg 2: Arsenal to Win & Over 1.5 Goals (+106, bet365)
The case for Under 2.5 goals is compelling. While Nottingham Forest has failed to secure a home win this season, they have maintained defensive stability at the City Ground, limiting opponents' scoring opportunities.
This season, both teams have been involved in low-scoring games. Arsenal's Premier League matches have averaged 2.33 goals, while Forest's contests have averaged just 2.17 goals, the joint-second-lowest in the league.
Furthermore, the last two encounters between these sides at this stadium finished 0-0, highlighting a trend of tight contests.
Conversely, there is also value in backing an Arsenal win combined with Over 1.5 goals. The Gunners have a formidable attack, as shown in their recent victories over Leeds and Lille, where they generated a combined 4.03 expected goals (xG).
Arsenal has failed to score in only one of its last 18 matches across all competitions, making it highly probable they find the net again.
Forest has struggled mightily to convert chances, scoring only five goals from 10.3 xG — the worst underperformance in the division.
This suggests a statistical regression is possible, and they could score.
Given Arsenal's status as heavy favorites, a win with at least two total goals offers solid value, especially since a third consecutive 0-0 draw seems unlikely.
Arsenal vs. Nottingham Projections
Projected Chance of Winning
| Arsenal | Draw | Nottingham |
|---|---|---|
| 58.5% | 22.4% | 19.1% |
Projected Total Goals
| Arsenal | Total Goals | Nottingham |
|---|---|---|
| 1.84 | 2.83 | 0.99 |
Arsenal vs. Nottingham Betting Analysis
Arsenal's quality and depth have been on full display recently. Following a surprising loss to Brighton, they secured back-to-back wins against Leeds and Lille. Key players are stepping up, with Noni Madueke creating three chances against Leeds and Bukayo Saka delivering a standout performance in the Champions League.
This match at Forest comes just before a major European clash with Bayern Munich, which could lead manager Mikel Arteta to rotate his squad, but the team has shown it can perform even with changes.
Nottingham Forest's primary issue has been a lack of clinical finishing. The team creates chances but fails to capitalize. Against Crystal Palace, they managed 24 shots and eight big chances but still lost.
This wastefulness is a major concern, especially against the Premier League's top defensive unit. Arsenal has allowed a league-low 4.66 expected goals against (xGA), making it incredibly difficult for an inefficient Forest attack to break through.
Historically, Arsenal has dominated this fixture, winning 56 of 109 meetings compared to Forest's 29. The Gunners are currently on a six-game unbeaten run against them. However, a crucial detail for this Nottingham Forest vs Arsenal pick is the venue. Arsenal has struggled at the City Ground, winning just one of their last six visits and failing to score in the last two, both of which ended in 0-0 draws.
This history adds uncertainty and supports the possibility of a tighter, lower-scoring match than the teams' league positions might suggest.
Check out the best soccer odds before making your Nottingham Forest vs Arsenal picks.
