Germany Bundesliga Week 28 Betting Preview: Another Over for High-Flying Hoffenheim?
- The biggest match of the Bundesliga season is on Saturday (12:30 p.m. ET on FOX) with Bayern Munich hosting Dortmund in a battle of the two top teams.
- In addition to an epic title race, there's still a lot on the line in terms of Champions League places, Europa League spots and the relegation battle at the bottom of the table.
- I've broken down the betting market for Week 28 in the Bundesliga to determine where the potential value lies.
Every match is critical with just two months remaining in the season and bettors aren’t taking a break from any of the action.
Here’s a look at the title race, relegation battle and betting market breakdown for this weekend’s Bundesliga matches.
Germany Bundesliga Week 28 Betting Odds
One of the best title races in the world got even better after Bayern Munich drew with Freiburg last weekend to fall back into second place behind Dortmund.
Bayern Munich still hold the goal-differential advantage (+41 vs. +36) over Dortmund but a loss would put them five points behind with just six matches remaining.
Nurnberg and Hannover are still 3+ wins away from potential safety so things are looking extremely bleak for both clubs with seven matches left in the season.
Stuttgart are in 16th place and if they finish there they would have to play in a play-off for survival. They’re currently five points away from safety and can’t afford to fall further behind Augsburg and Schalke. Fortunately they get to play last-place Nurnberg at home this weekend and are -125 odds-on favorites to secure a victory.
Augsburg are home underdogs against high-scoring Hoffenheim while Schalke are home ‘dogs against one of the hottest teams in the world, Frankfurt.
Current odds to be relegated are Stuttgart (+100), Augsburg (+1000) and Schalke (+1000), but this weekend could certainly sway things significantly if Stuttgart can pick up a win.
Week 28 Betting Market Breakdown
Sharp money crushed the Bundesliga last weekend as Hoffenheim, Frankfurt and Werder Bremen were all winners at home in convincing fashion.
Frankfurt moved into fourth by themselves while Werder Bremen jumped up into a tie for sixth. Bremen have impressively scored in 28 consecutive Bundesliga matches going back to 2017-18, and they’ve got a chance to move within two points of fifth-place Monchengladbach if they beat them on Sunday.
Hoffenheim held their spot at ninth in the standings and could move into sixth if things fall right this weekend. Not only is the title race compelling, but the battle for Champions League and Europa League spots will likely come down to the final matchday.
Keep in mind that Werder Bremen, Schalke, RB Leipzig and Bayern Munich all played DFB Pokal semifinal matches during the week which could affect lineups and rosters for Saturday and Sunday.
This weekend’s biggest line movement has been toward Frankfurt (+185 to +130) and Hoffenheim (+100 to -115), and it’s easy to see why based on their recent form.
Frankfurt have not lost a competitive match in the 2019 calendar year, winning eight of nine games outright, while Hoffenheim have lost just once since the middle of January.
In the marquee match of the weekend, we’ve seen line shifts toward both Dortmund (+550 to +500) and Bayern Munich (-170 to -190), and a win by either side would go a long way toward a Bundesliga title. I’m certainly giving the edge to Bayern in that one and gladly bet them at -180.
I’m also going back to the well on a Hoffenheim Over (3.5) because their open and attacking style of play lends itself to a plethora of scoring chances. If you’ve watched any of their matches this season, you won’t want to be on the under.
Hoffenheim and Augsburg have also committed the most fouls in the Bundesliga this season, and Hoffenheim have conceded the highest percentage of goals from dead-ball sitations (36%).
Add in the fact that Augsburg have scored a league-high 17 goals from set pieces and it’s the perfect recipe for goals, goals, goals.
Value Plays (Bundesliga Season Record: 2-0-0, +1.58 units)
- Bayern Munich (-180) vs. Dortmund
- Augsburg-Hoffenheim Over 3.5 (+100)
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