Chelsea (2-0-2) and Manchester United (1-2-1) will face off today at 12:30 p.m. EDT at Old Trafford in Manchester, England.
Chelsea is favored at a +140 price, with the over/under set at 2.5 (-165o / +120u) goals.
Let's get into my Chelsea vs. Man U prediction.
Chelsea vs. Man U Prediction
Pick: Match Result – Draw
My Chelsea vs. Man U best bet is on this match to end in a draw.
Chelsea vs. Man U Odds
| Chelsea Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-0.5 +130 | 2.5 -165o / 120u | +140 |
| Man U Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+0.5 -185 | 2.5 -165o / 120u | +170 |
Chelsea vs. Man U Picks, Parlay
Leg 1: Match Result – Draw
Leg 2: Double chance: Chelsea or a Draw and 2-4 Goals
Leg 3: Match – Over 32.5 Throw Ins
This head-to-head ended as a 1-1 draw at Old Trafford last season. That was the only tie between Chelsea and Man United in five meetings. However, before that, from 2020 to 2022, the Premier League witnessed five successive draws.
Our internal data projection model, BETSiE, predicts a tight encounter. The match goal output of 3.3xG is split by 1.47xG for United and 1.75xG for Chelsea. There’s not much in it, just 0.28xG.
The bookmakers agree that there is unlikely to be a runaway winner, implying a 42.2% chance of a Chelsea victory. The Red Devils, according to the odds compilers, hold a 36.4% likelihood of winning.
Chelsea enters the game as a slight favorite due to better form. While the Blues are without a loss in the last three games against the Red Devils, they are winless in the previous five at Old Trafford.
A draw seems like a solid option, but it’s also a game that promises goals. Ruben Amorim’s team scored just four goals so far, but a lot more is expected from key players. The Red Devils are second in the league in expected goals with 8.3 xG, but have scored only four.
Chelsea are behind United in this metric, but have produced nine goals from 7.9 xG. However, of the last 10 duels, eight have featured fewer than four goals, fitting the 2-4 range.
If any team manages to secure three points here, it is unlikely to be a blowout. The pressure on both ends should keep this game under control.
Another good option is throw-ins. The Premier League throw numbers have increased this season. There has been an average of 37.7 per match thus far, 4.83 more than last season, so we are backing over 32.5 throw-ins as part of our Manchester United vs Chelsea predictions.
Manchester United’s tactical approach lends itself to chaos. They show little interest in moving the ball through midfield. Instead, they opt for direct passes into the front three, which results in a good amount of throws. Their matches this season have seen an average of 38.5, and this selection has won in all four of their league outings.
Chelsea matches have also seen plenty of throws. There have been 35 or more in all of their league matches, with an average of 37.75 per game.
Chelsea vs. Man U Projections
Projected Chance of Winning
| Chelsea | Draw | Man U |
|---|---|---|
| 45.7% | 20.8% | 33.6% |
Projected Total Goals
| Chelsea | Total Goals | Man U |
|---|---|---|
| 1.75 | 3.23 | 1.47 |
Chelsea vs. Man U Betting Analysis
World champions Chelsea have consistently proven they’re the better team under Enzo Maresca. The Spaniard is having much more joy than his counterpart, Ruben Amorim, who has returned 31 points in 31 Premier League games as United boss.
However, given Chelsea’s scheduling and trip to Munich on Wednesday in the UEFA Champions League, that might be enough to allow United to earn a positive result at Old Trafford with a week’s worth of rest and focus on this specific fixture.
Analyzing the past eight meetings, Manchester United secured two wins, Chelsea claimed two victories, and four matches ended in draws. This record underscores a theme of unpredictability and closely fought contests, with neither team dominating outright.
Chelsea vs. Man U Projected Starting Lineups
Chelsea
Sanchez; James, Chalobah, Adarabioyo, Cucurella; Fernandez, Caicedo; Estevao, Palmer, Neto; Joao Pedro.
Man U
Bayindir; Yoro, Shaw, De Ligt; Dorgu, Mainoo, Casemiro; Fernandes, Mbeumo, Diallo; Sesko.
