Portland Timbers vs. New York City FC Odds & Best Bets: Our 3 Picks for MLS Cup

Portland Timbers vs. New York City FC Odds & Best Bets: Our 3 Picks for MLS Cup article feature image
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Diego Diaz/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images. Pictured: Portland Timbers standout Dairon Asprilla.

  • The Portland Timbers host New York City FC on Saturday in the final of MLS Cup.
  • Our team of soccer analysts have broken down the matchup and found 3 picks with great value for bettors.
  • They break down the game below and lay out where to find betting value.

MLS Cup: Portland vs. NYCFC Odds

Portland Odds +180
NYCFC Odds +150
Draw +210
Over/Under 2.5 (-110 / -135)
Day | Time Saturday | 3 p.m. ET
How To Watch ABC | UniMás | fuboTV
Odds via BetMGM. Get up-to-the-minute soccer odds here.

We have reached the end of the road in the Major League Soccer season, with Portland hosting New York City FC in Saturday’s MLS Cup at Providence Park.

And with that highly anticipated showdown comes an opportunity to deliver more exciting prop plays for your betting palates. Handicappers Ian Quillen, Jeremy Pond and Brett Pund have three intriguing plays for the bettors, all of which are currently sitting at plus money.

Check out below where they’ve landed with their selections and see why they love their respective wagers ahead of this match.

MLS Cup Prop Bets

Ian Quillen

The Pick Portland To Score Last
Odds +105
Best odds via DraftKings. Get up-to-the-minute Soccer odds here.

Quillen’s Breakdown: Ask players where home-field advantage translates most and they’ll almost certainly tell you it’s about energy level.

And where does that show up? Often in the final 15 minutes of regular time and beyond.

Portland was the second-best regular season MLS home team and a big reason was its ability to have that extra energy required to make a late play. Including their two playoff matches, the Timbers have scored the last goal in 15 of 19 home contests.

New York City FC scored the final goal only seven of 19 times when playing away, including just once in their two road playoff games so far.

Add in the fact that Sebastian Blanco seems likely to be playing a bench role for the hosts and Jaroslaw Niezgoda is the best substitute striker in this game, and this play is pretty easy to make in my opinion.

Jeremy Pond

The Pick Match Result & Total Goals — Portland & Over 1.5
Odds +260
Best odds via BetMGM. Get up-to-the-minute Soccer odds here.

Pond’s Breakdown: Let me be completely transparent before I put my pick out there for the world to see. I have a major affinity for my friends in Great Northwest, who helped me cash a +2800 ticket when they won the MLS is Back competition in Orlando.

And I’m going to love the Timbers even more if they pull off a minor upset at Providence Park. Why you ask? Well, the three futures tickets I have on Portland — two of which are at +2000 odds — would be pretty good reasons.

So, yes. You might assume there’s some bias in this wager, but the numbers tell me this is a great route to go and we’re getting close to 3-to-1 odds as well. Portland has scored at least one goal in an astounding 19 of its last 20 home matches, including 14 games in a row leading up to this affair. The Timbers have also scored at least two goals in 10 of the last 11 on Oregon soil.

Then, combine the fact the home team has triumphed at MLS Cup in eight of the last 10 championship matches with everything else I said and you have to feel good about this wager at ripe odds.

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Brett Pund

The Pick Total Over 2.5 Goals
Odds +105
Best odds via DraftKings. Get up-to-the-minute Soccer odds here.

Pund’s Breakdown: Two of the higher-scoring teams in MLS will meet for the title which I’m expecting to set up for an over on the game total.

With this match being a home game for Portland, you must take into account the home/road splits for both clubs. The total clearing 2.5 goals cashed in 13 of 19 games (68%) at Providence Park this season to go with an average of 3.32 goals per fixture.

Meanwhile, the same bet hit in 11 of 19 (58%) road fixtures for NYCFC as well. Plus,  the Both Teams To Score wager connected at an even higher percentage, hitting at 74 percent.

For the season, NYCFC ranked second in the league in expected goals per match (1.68), according to fbref.com, while Portland wasn’t far behind in seventh place with 1.49 xG per 90 minutes.

The Timbers also finished toward the bottom of the league in xGA per game (1.65) for the season.

Championship games in soccer can cause a lot of players and coaches to get real conservative and play to low totals, but I’m going to stick to what the numbers say by taking over 2.5 goals in the championship.

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