MLS Odds, Picks & Prediction: Inter Miami vs. Philadelphia Union Betting Preview

Inter Miami vs. Philadelphia Odds

Philadelphia looks to build on its 7-0 romp against D.C. United when it visits Inter Miami on Wednesday for a midweek Major League Soccer clash.

The Union's win over D.C. United marked the first time all season their sputtering attack had scored more than twice in a match.

Meanwhile, InternMiami continues to struggle to score on the road following a 1-0 draw at Orlando City decided by Damian Lowe's own goal in second-half stoppage time. However, the Herons are unbeaten with five wins in their last six home outings, scoring 13 times in the process.

Manager Phil Neville saw his Inter Miami side settle for a scoreless draw against Philadelphia in mid-May in their first meeting of the campaign.

Inter Miami

The Herons have been arguably the best home side in MLS since Neville made the tough decision to bench Argentine star Gonzalo Higuain.

And Ecuador international and World Cup hopeful Leonardo Campana took immediate advantage, making it easier for the boss to stay the course of relegating his most expensive player to (usually) a second-half substitute.

Seven of Campana's team-high eight goals have come since the switch, including a hat trick in the first game since the April 9 swap.

Inter Miami still could use a second scorer, which is one reason it traded for Toronto FC playmaker Alejandro Pozuelo. It's unclear if (and unlikely?) he'll be available, as the Spaniard still has to go through the U.S. visa process.

By The Numbers

• 77.7 — Percentage of Inter Miami's goals scored (14 of 18) at home.
• +1.2 — The Herons expected-goal difference over their last six home games.

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Philadelphia Union

The Union's offensive home explosion had been coming. Philadelphia had one of the better home xGDiff's in MLS prior to its match against a woeful D.C United., but only a 4-0-5 record (W-L-D) to show for it.

On the other hand, there are some recent cracks showing in the club’s foundation as a tough road team.

Philadelphia has been badly out-created in its last three away fixtures, but managed to preserve draws in two of them. Most recently, goalkeeper Andre Blake's penalty save helped preserve a scoreless draw in Columbus.

There might be some off-field issues with Jose Andres Martinez, who is crucially important as the Union's defensive midfielder. Martinez got in a spat with teammates when he tried to take a late penalty kick in the D.C. United win, and has been at the center of a couple on-field scuffles of late.

By The Numbers

• -5.6 — Philadelphia's away xGDiff in six matches since May 1.
• 1.17 — The Union's points per game earned in those six away games.

BJ Cunningham's MLS Model Projections

Betting Analysis & Pick

The wrong team is probably favored.

Philadelphia’s strong away numbers overall owe largely to two March wins against opponents weighed down by CONCACAF Champions League commitments. Inter Miami's home record includes three earlier games when it was quite obviously a different unit trying to compensate for the defensive liabilities caused by Higuain's attitude and fitness level.

That said, Philadelphia’s experience earning away results — draws mainly — and Inter Miami's inability to keep clean sheet scares me off the home team's moneyline number. At -190 odds, playing the Herons getting +0.5 goals on the spread line via the Asian Handicap isn't bad value, but also isn't very lucrative.

For me, a better spot is playing both teams to score at -140 odds and an implied 58.3% probability.

The bet has hit a bit north of 61% of the time (11 of 18 times) between Inter Miami's home encounters and Philadelphia’s travels. The rate gets higher if you remove the Herons’ early games with Higuain starting and the Union’s matches against active CCL foes.

The Pick: Both Teams To Score — Yes (-140)