MLS Odds, Picks & Prediction: LA Galaxy vs. San Jose Earthquakes Betting Preview (July 13)
Michael Janosz/ISI Photos/Getty Images. Pictured: Los Angeles Galaxy star Javier “Chicharito” Hernandez.
LA Galaxy vs. San Jose Odds
|LA Galaxy Odds||-165|
|San Jose Odds||+360|
|Over/Under||3.5 (+115 / -165)|
|Day | Time||Wednesday | 10 p.m. ET|
|How To Watch||FS1 | fuboTV|
|Odds updated via BetMGM. Get up-to-the-minute soccer odds here.|
The Los Angeles Galaxy and San Jose meet Wednesday for the first California Clasico of the 2022 Major League Soccer season.
The Galaxy are playing their second derby in six days after suffering a 3-2 road loss to Los Angeles Football Club in last Friday’s showdown.
On the other side, the Earthquakes journey away from home for a second time in five days after a 2-2 draw at Toronto FC in Saturday’s action.
These teams were originally scheduled to meet in Palo Alto, Calif., in late June. However, that game was rescheduled for September due to a power outage at Stanford Stadium.
Despite losing to LAFC for the first time in three meetings, the Galaxy gave a good account of themselves at Banc of California Stadium.
Samuel Grandsir leveled the match in the first half at 1-1, and Rayan Raveloson’s late goal closed it to 3-2 late in the affair. The Galaxy had a few late quality chances, but couldn’t find the equalizer.
The question is whether manager Greg Vanney will keep the 4-4-2 formation that has allowed Javier “Chicharito” Hernandez and Dejan Joveljic to start together the last two matches.
Neither scored against LAFC, but Chicharito leads Los Angeles with seven goals and Joveljic has scored five of his six in the last four games.
By The Numbers
- 2.25 — Number of xG created per 90 minutes by the Galaxy in four games since the international break.
- 70 — Most minutes Joveljic has played in a match this season, which came in Friday’s defeat to rival LAFC.
San Jose Earthquakes
The Earthquakes have improved their away form since manager Matias Almeyda left and Alex Covelo took over as caretaker boss.
However, it was a low bar.
San Jose has earned its only three points away — all on draws — since the late April transition. Yet, the club was still held scoreless twice in defeats against Nashville and Real Salt Lake, making it five times it failed to score on the road this season.
In their other four matches, the Earthquakes found the net at least twice. Most recently, they leveled in second-half stoppage time through Jack Skahan to earn their draw in Toronto.
By The Numbers
- 0-6-3 — San Jose’s away record (W-L-D) this season.
- 55.6 — Percentage of away matches the Earthquakes have Quakes have been shut out (5 of 9) during the campaign.
BJ Cunningham’s MLS Model Projections
Betting Analysis & Pick
Both teams are exceptionally inconsistent, meaning the value probably exists at opposite poles.
In other words, there’s a strong case for betting at least one team to keep a clean sheet. There’s also a strong case to back an offensive onslaught. If you wanted, you could easily find a wager on each side of that coin at plus money and play both, knowing you’d profit if either one hits.
However, looking at San Jose’s away track record, its offensive struggles have come against foes who want to ugly up the game. That doesn’t apply to the LA Galaxy here or at least it shouldn’t.
That said, I like backing the Earthquakes to score at least twice at +180 odds and an implied 35.7% probability. They’ve done it on four of nine occasions on the road, with none of those instances coming in have victories. That’s also why you shouldn’t play San Jose on the moneyline instead.
Los Angeles has kept three clean sheets at home. Yet, the Galaxy have also conceded three times in four of their last eight games, with three of those occurrences coming at Dignity Health Sports Park.
The Pick: San Jose — Team Total Over 1.5 Goals (+180)