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MLS Odds, Picks & Prediction: Philadelphia Union vs. New England Revolution Betting Preview

MLS Odds, Picks & Prediction: Philadelphia Union vs. New England Revolution Betting Preview article feature image
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Kyle Ross/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images. Pictured: Philadelphia Union goalkeeper Andre Blake.

  • The Philadelphia Union host the New England Revolution in Saturday’s MLS action.
  • The Union are a heavy -115 moneyline favorite, but analyst Ian Quillen has found betting value elsewhere.
  • Check out below to find out where he has landed via two plus-money bets.

Philadelphia vs. New England Odds

Philadelphia Odds -115
New England Odds +280
Draw +260
Over/Under 2.5 (-130 / -110)
Day | Time Saturday | 7:30 p.m. ET
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Odds updated as of Saturday afternoon via BetMGM. Get up-to-the-minute soccer odds here.

The Philadelphia Union look for their third consecutive win when they host the New England Revolution on Saturday in a pivotal Eastern Conference clash.

The Union blasted D.C. United in a 7-0 rout a week ago, then followed that with an unflashy — but deserved — 2-1 midweek, road win against Inter Miami.

The Revolution had a week to prepare after crashing in a 4-2 loss to New York City FC last Saturday in a contest heavily shaped by officiating.

These teams previously drew 1-1 in Foxborough, Mass., back at the end of May.

Philadelphia Union

After spending much of the early season lamenting missed chances, the Union attack has the look of breaking out.

Yes, D.C. United incompetence played a big part in Philadelphia’s blowout win a week ago. Even so, Julian Carranza and Mikael Uhre are finding their form and mutual understanding as they approach double-digit games starting together in manager Jim Curtin’s 4-4-2 system.

Carranza’s hat trick and Uhre’s brace against D.C. United brought the pair to a combined 12 goals on the season, despite Uhre in particular battling some earlier injury issues.

Carranza only played as a substitute in Wednesday’s win, in which Daniel Gazdag and Cory Burke were the scorers, so he might less impacted by the quick turnaround.

By The Numbers

  • 5-0-5 — Philadelphia’s home record (W-L-D) this season.
  • +1.25The Union’s home xGDiff per 90 minutes in those games.
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New England Revolution

New England have been excellent in league play since losing in the CONCACAF Champions League semifinal round. However, their 10-match unbeaten run came to an end at Yankee Stadium.

The visitors conceded an MLS-record three first-half penalties and Revolution center back Andrew Farrell was sent off for denying an obvious goal-scoring opportunity before the half.

That New England still threatened the NYCFC goal and scored once after going down to 10 men is no small credit to its mentality. The club’s -4.7 goal differential on the day — as astounding as it is — was more poor fortune than poor play.

Yet, this is still a team that has conceded far too often away from home. And Farrell’s red-card suspension makes this task defending more difficult.

By The Numbers

  • 20 — New England goals conceded in its nine away matches.
  • 5-2-6 The club’s record (W-L-D) since concluding CCL play in mid-April.
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Betting Analysis & Picks

The Revolution are a little short handed without Farrell and still waiting for striking Giacomo Vrioni to become fit and eligible for selection.

And even if they’re approaching a breakout, the Union are also facing a third game in a demanding nine-day stretch.

If that doesn’t have you leaning toward the draw, it should.

Philadelphia has drawn a league-high nine matches. New England has tied seven times. And with Curtin and Revolution boss Bruce Arena in charge, these teams have shared points on four of nine occasions since their second meeting of the 2019 campaign.

At +260 odds and a 27.6% implied probability, you have to play that wager.

That said, the Union’s offensive improvement feels legitimate, if incrementally so. They’ve scored twice on eight occasions, but more than that only once. The Revolution have conceded at least twice in seven of nine road games.

So, I like backing Philadelphia to find the net exactly twice at +240 odds and an implied 29.4% probability as well.

The Picks: Draw (+260) | Philadelphia — Two Goals Exact (+240)

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